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Abstract In many areas of the brain, neural spiking activity covaries with features of the external world, such as sensory stimuli or an animal's movement. Experimental findings suggest that the variability of neural activity changes over time and may provide information about the external world beyond the information provided by the average neural activity. To flexibly track time-varying neural response properties, we developed a dynamic model with Conway-Maxwell Poisson (CMP) observations. The CMP distribution can flexibly describe firing patterns that are both under- and overdispersed relative to the Poisson distribution. Here we track parameters of the CMP distribution as they vary over time. Using simulations, we show that a normal approximation can accurately track dynamics in state vectors for both the centering and shape parameters (λ and ν). We then fit our model to neural data from neurons in primary visual cortex, “place cells” in the hippocampus, and a speed-tuned neuron in the anterior pretectal nucleus. We find that this method outperforms previous dynamic models based on the Poisson distribution. The dynamic CMP model provides a flexible framework for tracking time-varying non-Poisson count data and may also have applications beyond neuroscience.
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Bayesian Inference for Spatial Count Data that May be Over-Dispersed or Under-Dispersed with Application to the 2016 US Presidential Election
We propose a method of spatial prediction using count data that can be reasonably modeled assuming the Conway-Maxwell Poisson distribution (COM-Poisson). The COM-Poisson model is a two parameter generalization of the Poisson distribution that allows for the flexibility needed to model count data that are either over or under-dispersed. The computationally limiting factor of the COM-Poisson distribution is that the likelihood function contains multiple intractable normalizing constants and is not always feasible when using Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) techniques. Thus, we develop a prior distribution of the parameters associated with the COM-Poisson that avoids the intractable normalizing constant. Also, allowing for spatial random effects induces additional variability that makes it unclear if a spatially correlated Conway-Maxwell Poisson random variable is over or under-dispersed. We propose a computationally efficient hierarchical Bayesian model that addresses these issues. In particular, in our model, the parameters associated with the COM-Poisson do not include spatial random effects (leading to additional variability that changes the dispersion properties of the data), and are then spatially smoothed in subsequent levels of the Bayesian hierarchical model. Furthermore, the spatially smoothed parameters have a simple regression interpretation that facilitates computation. We demonstrate the applicability of our approach using simulated examples, and a motivating application using 2016 US presidential election voting data in the state of Florida obtained from the Florida Division of Elections.
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- Award ID(s):
- 1853099
- PAR ID:
- 10353159
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- Journal of Data Science
- Volume:
- 20
- Issue:
- 3
- ISSN:
- 1680-743X
- Page Range / eLocation ID:
- 325 to 337
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
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- Free Publicly Accessible Full Text
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Accepted Manuscript1.0
- Journal Article:
- https://doi.org/10.6339/21-JDS1032
