Abstract We consider Bayesian inference for large-scale inverse problems, where computational challenges arise from the need for repeated evaluations of an expensive forward model. This renders most Markov chain Monte Carlo approaches infeasible, since they typically require O ( 1 0 4 ) model runs, or more. Moreover, the forward model is often given as a black box or is impractical to differentiate. Therefore derivative-free algorithms are highly desirable. We propose a framework, which is built on Kalman methodology, to efficiently perform Bayesian inference in such inverse problems. The basic method is based on an approximation of the filtering distribution of a novel mean-field dynamical system, into which the inverse problem is embedded as an observation operator. Theoretical properties are established for linear inverse problems, demonstrating that the desired Bayesian posterior is given by the steady state of the law of the filtering distribution of the mean-field dynamical system, and proving exponential convergence to it. This suggests that, for nonlinear problems which are close to Gaussian, sequentially computing this law provides the basis for efficient iterative methods to approximate the Bayesian posterior. Ensemble methods are applied to obtain interacting particle system approximations of the filtering distribution of the mean-field model; and practical strategies to further reduce the computational and memory cost of the methodology are presented, including low-rank approximation and a bi-fidelity approach. The effectiveness of the framework is demonstrated in several numerical experiments, including proof-of-concept linear/nonlinear examples and two large-scale applications: learning of permeability parameters in subsurface flow; and learning subgrid-scale parameters in a global climate model. Moreover, the stochastic ensemble Kalman filter and various ensemble square-root Kalman filters are all employed and are compared numerically. The results demonstrate that the proposed method, based on exponential convergence to the filtering distribution of a mean-field dynamical system, is competitive with pre-existing Kalman-based methods for inverse problems.
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Variational inference with NoFAS: Normalizing flow with adaptive surrogate for computationally expensive models
Fast inference of numerical model parameters from data is an important prerequisite to generate predictive models for a wide range of applications. Use of sampling-based approaches such as Markov chain Monte Carlo may become intractable when each likelihood evaluation is computationally expensive. New approaches combining variational inference with normalizing flow are characterized by a computational cost that grows only linearly with the dimensionality of the latent variable space, and rely on gradient-based optimization instead of sampling, providing a more efficient approach for Bayesian inference about the model parameters. Moreover, the cost of frequently evaluating an expensive likelihood can be mitigated by replacing the true model with an offline trained surrogate model, such as neural networks. However, this approach might generate significant bias when the surrogate is insufficiently accurate around the posterior modes. To reduce the computational cost without sacrificing inferential accuracy, we propose Normalizing Flow with Adaptive Surrogate (NoFAS), an optimization strategy that alternatively updates the normalizing flow parameters and surrogate model parameters. We also propose an efficient sample weighting scheme for surrogate model training that preserves global accuracy while effectively capturing high posterior density regions. We demonstrate the inferential and computational superiority of NoFAS against various benchmarks, including cases where the underlying model lacks identifiability. The source code and numerical experiments used for this study are available at https://github.com/cedricwangyu/NoFAS.
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- NSF-PAR ID:
- 10348229
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- Journal of computational physics
- Volume:
- 467
- Issue:
- 15 October 2022
- ISSN:
- 0021-9991
- Page Range / eLocation ID:
- 111454
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
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- Free Publicly Accessible Full Text
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Accepted Manuscript1.0
- Journal Article:
- https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.48550/arXiv.2108.12657
