As 21st‐century climate and disturbance dynamics depart from historic baselines, ecosystem resilience is uncertain. Multiple drivers are changing simultaneously, and interactions among drivers could amplify ecosystem vulnerability to change. Subalpine forests in Greater Yellowstone (Northern Rocky Mountains, USA) were historically resilient to infrequent (100–300 year), severe fire. We sampled paired short‐interval (<30‐year) and long‐interval (>125‐year) post‐fire plots most recently burned between 1988 and 2018 to address two questions: (1) How do short‐interval fire, climate, topography, and distance to unburned live forest edge interact to affect post‐fire forest regeneration? (2) How do forest biomass and fuels vary following short‐interval versus long‐interval severe fires? Mean post‐fire live tree stem density was an order of magnitude lower following short‐interval versus long‐interval fires (3240 vs. 28,741 stems ha−1, respectively). Differences between paired plots were amplified at longer distances to live forest edge. Surprisingly, warmer–drier climate was associated with higher seedling densities even after short‐interval fire, likely relating to regional variation in serotiny of lodgepole pine (
- NSF-PAR ID:
- 10353231
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- Fire
- Volume:
- 5
- Issue:
- 2
- ISSN:
- 2571-6255
- Page Range / eLocation ID:
- 41
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
More Like this
-
Abstract Pinus contorta var.latifolia ). Unlike conifers, density of aspen (Populus tremuloides ), a deciduous resprouter, increased with short‐interval versus long‐interval fires (mean 384 vs. 62 stems ha−1, respectively). Live biomass and canopy fuels remained low nearly 30 years after short‐interval fire, in contrast with rapid recovery after long‐interval fire, suggesting that future burn severity may be reduced for several decades following reburns. Short‐interval plots also had half as much dead woody biomass compared with long‐interval plots (60 vs. 121 Mg ha−1), primarily due to the absence of large snags. Our results suggest differences in tree regeneration following short‐interval versus long‐interval fires will be especially pronounced where serotiny was high historically. Propagule limitation will also interact with short‐interval fires to diminish tree regeneration but lessen subsequent burn severity. Amplifying driver interactions are likely to threaten forest resilience under expected trajectories of a future fire. -
Abstract Fire regimes are influenced by both exogenous drivers (e.g., increases in atmospheric CO2and climate change) and endogenous drivers (e.g., vegetation and soil/litter moisture), which constrain fuel loads and fuel aridity. Herein, we identified how exogenous and endogenous drivers can interact to affect fuels and fire regimes in a semiarid watershed in the inland northwestern United States throughout the 21st century. We used a coupled ecohydrologic and fire regime model to examine how climate change and CO2scenarios influence fire regimes. In this semiarid watershed, we found an increase in burned area and burn probability in the mid‐21st century (2040s) as the CO2fertilization effect on vegetation productivity outstripped the effects of climate change‐induced fuel decreases, resulting in greater fuel loading. However, by the late‐21st century (2070s), climatic warming dominated over CO2fertilization, thus reducing fuel loading and burned area. Fire regimes were shown to shift from flammability‐ to fuel‐limited or become increasingly fuel‐limited in response to climate change. We identified a metric to identify when fire regimes shift from flammability‐ to fuel‐limited: the ratio of the change in fuel loading to the change in its aridity. The threshold value for which this metric indicates a flammability versus fuel‐limited regime differed between grasses and woody species but remained stationary over time. Our results suggest that identifying these thresholds in other systems requires narrowing uncertainty in exogenous drivers, such as future precipitation patterns and CO2effects on vegetation.
-
Abstract Although natural disturbances such as wildfire, extreme weather events, and insect outbreaks play a key role in structuring ecosystems and watersheds worldwide, climate change has intensified many disturbance regimes, which can have compounding negative effects on ecosystem processes and services. Recent studies have highlighted the need to understand whether wildfire increases or decreases after large‐scale beetle outbreaks. However, observational studies have produced mixed results. To address this, we applied a coupled ecohydrologic‐fire regime‐beetle effects model (RHESSys‐WMFire‐Beetle) in a semiarid watershed in the western US. We found that in the red phase (0–5 years post‐outbreak), surface fire extent, burn probability, and surface and crown fire severity all decreased. In the gray phase (6–15 years post‐outbreak), both surface fire extent and surface and crown fire severity increased with increasing mortality. However, fire probability reached a plateau during high mortality levels (>50% in terms of carbon removed). In the old phase (one to several decades post‐outbreak), fire extent and severity still increased in all mortality levels. However, fire probability increased during low to medium mortality (≤50%) but decreased during high mortality levels (>50%). Wildfire responses also depended on the fire regime. In fuel‐limited locations, fire probability increased with increasing fuel loads, whereas in fuel‐abundant (flammability‐limited) systems, fire probability decreased due to decreases in fuel aridity from reduced plant water demand. This modeling framework can improve our understanding of the mechanisms driving wildfire responses and aid managers in predicting when and where fire hazards will increase.
-
Abstract Background Trends of increasing area burned in many regions worldwide are leading to more locations experiencing short-interval reburns (i.e., fires occurring two or more times in the same place within 1–3 decades). Field and satellite indices of burn severity are well tested in forests experiencing a single recent fire, but the reliability of these indices in short-interval reburns is poorly understood. We tested how a commonly used field index (the Composite Burn Index, CBI) and satellite index (the Relative differenced Normalized Burn Ratio, RdNBR) compared to eight individual field measures of burn severity in short-interval reburns vs. areas burned in one recent fire, and whether results depended on whether the first fire was stand replacing (fire that is lethal to most dominant trees).
Results Correspondence between both CBI and RdNBR with individual burn severity measures differed in short-interval reburns compared to single fires for some metrics of burn severity. Divergence in the relationship between both CBI and RdNBR vs. field measures was greatest when short-interval reburns followed a prior stand-replacing fire, and measures were more comparable to single fires when the first fire was non-stand replacing (i.e., lower severity). When short-interval reburns followed prior stand-replacing fires, CBI and RdNBR underestimated burn severity in the second fire for tree-canopy metrics (e.g., canopy cover loss, tree mortality), as young forests in early developmental stages are more sensitive to a second fire. Conversely, when short-interval reburns followed prior less-than-stand-replacing fires, both CBI and RdNBR overestimated burn severity for forest-floor metrics, as past low severity fires leave behind live fire-resistant trees and can stimulate resprouting understory vegetation. Finally, neither CBI nor RdNBR accurately detected deep wood charring—an important phenomenon that occurs in short-interval reburns.
Conclusion Our findings inform interpretability of commonly used indices of burn severity in short-interval reburns by identifying how individual burn severity metrics can be under- or over-estimated, depending on the severity of the fire preceding a reburn. Adjustments to burn severity measurements made in short-interval reburns are particularly critical as reburned areas increase.
-
Abstract Black spruce forest communities in boreal Alaska have undergone self‐replacement succession following low‐to‐moderate severity fires for thousands of years. However, recent intensification of interior Alaska's fire regime, particularly deeper burning of the soil organic layer, is leading to shifts to deciduous‐dominated successional pathways, resulting in many socioecological consequences. Both fuel load quantity and quality (or “burnability”) influence black spruce plant communities' potential to burn. Even relatively low fuel loads, such as those seen in black spruce forest understory, can be highly influential drivers of fire behavior due to their high flammability. Additionally, black spruce community self‐replacement following fire can be largely attributed to the suite of functional and life history traits possessed by the species dominating these communities. We used fuel load (quantity and quality) and amount of within‐population plant trait variation (coefficient of variation; CV) as community‐level emergent properties to investigate black spruce forest vulnerability and resilience to a changing fire regime across the landscape. Our burn severity potential index (BSPI), calculated from fuel load quantity and quality measurements, indicates that drier, higher elevation stands with thicker active layers were the most vulnerable to fire‐induced vegetation shifts under a changing fire regime. Forest resilience to fire‐induced vegetation shift, represented by higher CV, was negatively associated with BSPI and greatest in ecoregions dominated by lowland black spruce forests. Together, these analyses provide critical information for determining the likelihood of stand‐replacing shifts in dominant vegetation following fire and for implementing appropriate ecosystem management practices.