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1. Surface temperature comparison of the Arctic winter MOSAiC observations, ERA5 reanalysis, and MODIS satellite retrieval

   https://doi.org/10.1525/elementa.2022.00085  

   Herrmannsdörfer, Lia; Müller, Malte; Shupe, Matthew D.; Rostosky, Philip (January 2023, Elementa: Science of the Anthropocene)

   Atmospheric model systems, such as those used for weather forecast and reanalysis production, often have significant and systematic errors in their representation of the Arctic surface energy budget and its components. The newly available observation data of the Multidisciplinary drifting Observatory for the Study of Arctic Climate (MOSAiC) expedition (2019/2020) enable a range of model analyses and validation in order to advance our understanding of potential model deficiencies. In the present study, we analyze deficiencies in the surface radiative energy budget over Arctic sea ice in the ERA5 global atmospheric reanalysis by comparing against the winter MOSAiC campaign data, as well as, a pan-Arctic level-2 MODIS ice surface temperature remote sensing product. We find that ERA5 can simulate the timing of radiatively clear periods, though it is not able to distinguish the two observed radiative Arctic winter states, radiatively clear and opaquely cloudy, in the distribution of the net surface radiative budget. The ERA5 surface temperature over Arctic sea ice has a conditional error with a positive bias in radiatively clear conditions and a negative bias in opaquely cloudy conditions. The mean surface temperature error is 4°C for radiatively clear situations at MOSAiC and up to 15°C in some parts of the Arctic. The spatial variability of the surface temperature, given by 4 observation sites at MOSAiC, is not captured by ERA5 due to its spatial resolution but represented in the level-2 satellite product. The sensitivity analysis of possible error sources, using satellite products of snow depth and sea ice thickness, shows that the positive surface temperature errors during radiatively clear events are, to a large extent, caused by insufficient sea ice thickness and snow depth representation in the reanalysis system. A positive bias characterizes regions with ice thickness greater than 1.5 m, while the negative bias for thinner ice is partly compensated by the effect of snow. 

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2. The Critical Role of Sea Ice Products for Accurate Wind‐Wave Simulations in the Arctic

   https://doi.org/10.1029/2024EA003803  

   Miesse, Tyler_W; Henke, Martin; de_Souza_de_Lima, Andre; Ferreira, Celso_M; Ravens, Thomas (January 2025, Earth and Space Science)

   Abstract The Arctic region is experiencing significant changes due to climate change, and the resulting decline in sea ice concentration and extent is already impacting ocean dynamics and exacerbating coastal hazards in the region. In this context, numerical models play a crucial role in simulating the interactions between the ocean, land, sea ice, and atmosphere, thus supporting scientific studies in the region. This research aims to evaluate how different sea ice products with spatial resolutions varying from 2 to 25 km influence a phase averaged spectral wave model results in the Alaskan Arctic under storm conditions. Four events throughout the Fall to Winter seasons in 2019 were utilized to assess the accuracy of wave simulations generated under the dynamic sea ice conditions found in the Arctic. The selected sea ice products used to parameterize the numerical wave model include the National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC) sea ice concentration, the European Centre for Medium‐Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Re‐Analysis (ERA5), the HYbrid Coordinate Ocean Model‐Community Ice CodE (HYCOM‐CICE) system assimilated with Navy Coupled Ocean Data Assimilation (NCODA), and the High‐resolution Ice‐Ocean Modeling and Assimilation System (HIOMAS). The Simulating WAves Nearshore (SWAN) model's accuracy in simulating waves using these sea ice products was evaluated against Sea State Daily Multisensor L3 satellite observations. Results show wave simulations using ERA5 consistently exhibited high correlation with observations, maintaining an accuracy above 0.83 to the observations across all events. Conversely, HIOMAS demonstrated the weakest performance, particularly during the Winter, with the lowest correlation of 0.40 to the observations. Remarkably, ERA5 surpassed all other products by up to 30% in accuracy during the selected storm events, and even when an ensemble was assessed by combining the selected sea ice products, ERA5's individual performance remained unmatched. Our study provides insights for selecting sea ice products under different sea ice conditions for accurately simulating waves and coastal hazards in high latitudes. 

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3. A Machine Learning Correction Model of the Winter Clear-Sky Temperature Bias over the Arctic Sea Ice in Atmospheric Reanalyses

   https://doi.org/10.1175/MWR-D-22-0130.1  

   Zampieri, Lorenzo; Arduini, Gabriele; Holland, Marika; Keeley, Sarah P. E.; Mogensen, Kristian; Shupe, Matthew D.; Tietsche, Steffen (June 2023, Monthly Weather Review)

   Abstract Atmospheric reanalyses are widely used to estimate the past atmospheric near-surface state over sea ice. They provide boundary conditions for sea ice and ocean numerical simulations and relevant information for studying polar variability and anthropogenic climate change. Previous research revealed the existence of large near-surface temperature biases (mostly warm) over the Arctic sea ice in the current generation of atmospheric reanalyses, which is linked to a poor representation of the snow over the sea ice and the stably stratified boundary layer in the forecast models used to produce the reanalyses. These errors can compromise the employment of reanalysis products in support of polar research. Here, we train a fully connected neural network that learns from remote sensing infrared temperature observations to correct the existing generation of uncoupled atmospheric reanalyses (ERA5, JRA-55) based on a set of sea ice and atmospheric predictors, which are themselves reanalysis products. The advantages of the proposed correction scheme over previous calibration attempts are the consideration of the synoptic weather and cloud state, compatibility of the predictors with the mechanism responsible for the bias, and a self-emerging seasonality and multidecadal trend consistent with the declining sea ice state in the Arctic. The correction leads on average to a 27% temperature bias reduction for ERA5 and 7% for JRA-55 if compared to independent in situ observations from the MOSAiC campaign (respectively, 32% and 10% under clear-sky conditions). These improvements can be beneficial for forced sea ice and ocean simulations, which rely on reanalyses surface fields as boundary conditions. Significance StatementThis study illustrates a novel method based on machine learning for reducing the systematic surface temperature errors that characterize multiple atmospheric reanalyses in sea ice–covered regions of the Arctic under clear-sky conditions. The correction applied to the temperature field is consistent with the local weather and the sea ice and snow conditions, meaning that it responds to seasonal changes in sea ice cover as well as to its long-term decline due to global warming. The corrected reanalysis temperature can be employed to support polar research activities, and in particular to better simulate the evolution of the interacting sea ice and ocean system within numerical models. 

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4. Seasonal Variations and Spatial Patterns of Arctic Cloud Changes in Association with Sea Ice Loss during 1950–2019 in ERA5

   https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-23-0117.1  

   Jenkins, Matthew T.; Dai, Aiguo; Deser, Clara (January 2024, Journal of Climate)

   Abstract The dynamic and thermodynamic mechanisms that link retreating sea ice to increased Arctic cloud amount and cloud water content are unclear. Using the fifth generation of the ECMWF Reanalysis (ERA5), the long-term changes between years 1950–79 and 1990–2019 in Arctic clouds are estimated along with their relationship to sea ice loss. A comparison of ERA5 to CERES satellite cloud fractions reveals that ERA5 simulates the seasonal cycle, variations, and changes of cloud fraction well over water surfaces during 2001–20. This suggests that ERA5 may reliably represent the cloud response to sea ice loss because melting sea ice exposes more water surfaces in the Arctic. Increases in ERA5 Arctic cloud fraction and water content are largest during October–March from ∼950 to 700 hPa over areas with significant (≥15%) sea ice loss. Further, regions with significant sea ice loss experience higher convective available potential energy (∼2–2.75 J kg⁻¹), planetary boundary layer height (∼120–200 m), and near-surface specific humidity (∼0.25–0.40 g kg⁻¹) and a greater reduction of the lower-tropospheric temperature inversion (∼3°–4°C) than regions with small (<15%) sea ice loss in autumn and winter. Areas with significant sea ice loss also show strengthened upward motion between 1000 and 700 hPa, enhanced horizontal convergence (divergence) of air, and decreased (increased) relative humidity from 1000 to 950 hPa (950–700 hPa) during the cold season. Analyses of moisture divergence, evaporation minus precipitation, and meridional moisture flux fields suggest that increased local surface water fluxes, rather than atmospheric motions, provide a key source of moisture for increased Arctic clouds over newly exposed water surfaces during October–March. Significance StatementSea ice loss has been shown to be a primary contributor to Arctic warming. Despite the evidence linking large sea ice retreat to Arctic warming, some studies have suggested that enhanced downwelling longwave radiation associated with increased clouds and water vapor is the primary reason for Arctic amplification. However, it is unclear how sea ice loss is linked to changes in clouds and water vapor in the Arctic. Here, we investigate the relationship between Arctic sea ice loss and changes in clouds using the ERA5 dataset. Improved knowledge of the relationship between Arctic sea ice loss and changes in clouds will help further our understanding of the role of the cloud feedback in Arctic warming. 

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5. Thermodynamic and dynamic contributions to seasonal Arctic sea ice thickness distributions from airborne observations

   https://doi.org/10.1525/elementa.2021.00074  

   von Albedyll, Luisa; Hendricks, Stefan; Grodofzig, Raphael; Krumpen, Thomas; Arndt, Stefanie; Belter, H. Jakob; Birnbaum, Gerit; Cheng, Bin; Hoppmann, Mario; Hutchings, Jennifer; et al (January 2022, Elementa: Science of the Anthropocene)

   Sea ice thickness is a key parameter in the polar climate and ecosystem. Thermodynamic and dynamic processes alter the sea ice thickness. The Multidisciplinary drifting Observatory for the Study of Arctic Climate (MOSAiC) expedition provided a unique opportunity to study seasonal sea ice thickness changes of the same sea ice. We analyzed 11 large-scale (∼50 km) airborne electromagnetic sea thickness and surface roughness surveys from October 2019 to September 2020. Data from ice mass balance and position buoys provided additional information. We found that thermodynamic growth and decay dominated the seasonal cycle with a total mean sea ice thickness increase of 1.4 m (October 2019 to June 2020) and decay of 1.2 m (June 2020 to September 2020). Ice dynamics and deformation-related processes, such as thin ice formation in leads and subsequent ridging, broadened the ice thickness distribution and contributed 30% to the increase in mean thickness. These processes caused a 1-month delay between maximum thermodynamic sea ice thickness and maximum mean ice thickness. The airborne EM measurements bridged the scales from local floe-scale measurements to Arctic-wide satellite observations and model grid cells. The spatial differences in mean sea ice thickness between the Central Observatory (<10 km) of MOSAiC and the Distributed Network (<50 km) were negligible in fall and only 0.2 m in late winter, but the relative abundance of thin and thick ice varied. One unexpected outcome was the large dynamic thickening in a regime where divergence prevailed on average in the western Nansen Basin in spring. We suggest that the large dynamic thickening was due to the mobile, unconsolidated sea ice pack and periodic, sub-daily motion. We demonstrate that this Lagrangian sea ice thickness data set is well suited for validating the existing redistribution theory in sea ice models. Our comprehensive description of seasonal changes of the sea ice thickness distribution is valuable for interpreting MOSAiC time series across disciplines and can be used as a reference to advance sea ice thickness modeling. 

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