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Abstract In a complex ecohydrologic system, vegetation and soil variables combine to dictate heat fluxes, and these fluxes may vary depending on the extent to which drivers are linearly or nonlinearly interrelated. From a modeling and causality perspective, uncertainty, sensitivity, and performance measures all relate to how information from different sources “flows” through a model to produce a target, or output. We address how model structure, broadly defined as a mapping from inputs to an output, combines with source dependencies to produce a range of information flow pathways from sources to a target. We apply information decomposition, which partitions reductions in uncertainty into synergistic, redundant, and unique information types, to a range of model cases. Toy models show that model structure and source dependencies both restrict the types of interactions that can arise between sources and targets. Regressions based on weather data illustrate how different model structures vary in their sensitivity to source dependencies, thus affecting predictive and functional performance. Finally, we compare the Surface Flux Equilibrium theory, a land‐surface model, and neural networks in estimating the Bowen ratio and find that models trade off information types particularly when sources have the highest and lowest dependencies. Overall, this study extends an information theory‐based model evaluation framework to incorporate the influence of source dependency on information pathways. This could be applied to explore behavioral ranges for both machine learning and process‐based models, and guide model development by highlighting model deficiencies based on information flow pathways that would not be apparent based on existing measures.
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Evaluating Ecohydrological Model Sensitivity to Input Variability with an Information-Theory-Based Approach
Ecohydrological models vary in their sensitivity to forcing data and use available information to different extents. We focus on the impact of forcing precision on ecohydrological model behavior particularly by quantizing, or binning, time-series forcing variables. We use rate-distortion theory to quantize time-series forcing variables to different precisions. We evaluate the effect of different combinations of quantized shortwave radiation, air temperature, vapor pressure deficit, and wind speed on simulated heat and carbon fluxes for a multi-layer canopy model, which is forced and validated with eddy covariance flux tower observation data. We find that the model is more sensitive to radiation than meteorological forcing input, but model responses also vary with seasonal conditions and different combinations of quantized inputs. While any level of quantization impacts carbon flux similarly, specific levels of quantization influence heat fluxes to different degrees. This study introduces a method to optimally simplify forcing time series, often without significantly decreasing model performance, and could be applied within a sensitivity analysis framework to better understand how models use available information.
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- PAR ID:
- 10356556
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- Entropy
- Volume:
- 24
- Issue:
- 7
- ISSN:
- 1099-4300
- Page Range / eLocation ID:
- 994
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
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- Free Publicly Accessible Full Text
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Accepted Manuscript1.0
- Journal Article:
- https://doi.org/10.3390/E24070994
