Deforestation alters wildlife communities and modifies human–wildlife interactions, often increasing zoonotic spillover potential. When deforested land reverts to forest, species composition differences between primary and regenerating (secondary) forest could alter spillover risk trajectory. We develop a mathematical model of land-use change, where habitats differ in their relative spillover risk, to understand how land reversion influences spillover risk. We apply this framework to scenarios where spillover risk is higher in deforested land than mature forest, reflecting higher relative abundance of highly competent species and/or increased human–wildlife encounters, and where regenerating forest has either very low or high spillover risk. We find the forest regeneration rate, the spillover risk of regenerating forest relative to deforested land, and how rapidly regenerating forest regains attributes of mature forest determine landscape-level spillover risk. When regenerating forest has a much lower spillover risk than deforested land, reversion lowers cumulative spillover risk, but instaneous spillover risk peaks earlier. However, when spillover risk is high in regenerating and cleared habitats, landscape-level spillover risk remains high, especially when cleared land is rapidly abandoned then slowly regenerates to mature forest. These results suggest that proactive wildlife management and awareness of human exposure risk in regenerating forests could be important tools for spillover mitigation. more »« less
Environmental change impacts natural ecosystems and wildlife populations. In Australia, native forests have been heavily cleared and the local emergence of Hendra virus (HeV) has been linked to land-use change, winter habitat loss, and changing bat behavior.
Objectives
We quantified changes in landscape factors for black flying foxes (Pteropus alecto), a reservoir host of HeV, in sub-tropical Queensland, Australia from 2000–2020. We hypothesized that native winter habitat loss and native remnant forest loss were greatest in areas with the most human population growth.
Methods
We measured the spatiotemporal change in human population size and native ‘remnant’ woody vegetation extent. We assessed changes in the observedP. alectopopulation and native winter habitats in bioregions whereP. alectoare observed roosting in winter. We assessed changes in the amount of remnant vegetation across bioregions and within 50 km foraging buffers around roosts.
Results
Human populations in these bioregions grew by 1.18 M people, mostly within 50 km foraging areas around roosts. Remnant forest extent decreased overall, but regrowth was observed when policy restricted vegetation clearing. Winter habitats were continuously lost across all spatial scales. Observed roost counts ofP. alectodeclined.
Conclusion
Native remnant forest loss and winter habitat loss were not directly linked to spatial human population growth. Rather, most remnant vegetation was cleared for indirect human use. We observed forest loss and regrowth in response to state land clearing policies. Expanded flying fox population surveys will help better understand how land-use change has impactedP. alectodistribution and Hendra virus spillover.
Carter, Neil H.; Baeza, Andres; Magliocca, Nicholas R.(
, Conservation Biology)
Abstract
Human perception of risks related to economic damages caused by nearby wildlife can be transmitted through social networks. Understanding how sharing risk information within a human community alters the spatial dynamics of human‐wildlife interactions has important implications for the design and implementation of effective conservation actions. We developed an agent‐based model that simulates farmer livelihood decisions and activities in an agricultural landscape shared with a population of a generic wildlife species (wildlife‐human interactions in shared landscapes [WHISL]). In the model, based on risk perception and economic information, farmers decide how much labor to allocate to farming and whether and where to exclude wildlife from their farms (e.g., through fencing, trenches, or vegetation thinning). In scenarios where the risk perception of farmers was strongly influenced by other farmers, exclusion of wildlife was widespread, resulting in decreased quality of wildlife habitat and frequency of wildlife damages across the landscape. When economic losses from encounters with wildlife were high, perception of risk increased and led to highly synchronous behaviors by farmers in space and time. Interactions between wildlife and farmers sometimes led to a spillover effect of wildlife damage displaced from socially and spatially connected communities to less connected neighboring farms. The WHISL model is a useful conservation‐planning tool because it provides a test bed for theories and predictions about human‐wildlife dynamics across a range of different agricultural landscapes.
Becker, Daniel J.; Speer, Kelly A.; Korstian, Jennifer M.; Volokhov, Dmitriy V.; Droke, Hannah F.; Brown, Alexis M.; Baijnauth, Catherene L.; Padgett‐Stewart, Ticha; Broders, Hugh G.; Plowright, Raina K.; et al(
, Journal of Applied Ecology)
Abstract
Contaminants such as mercury are pervasive and can have immunosuppressive effects on wildlife. Impaired immunity could be important for forecasting pathogen spillover, as many land‐use changes that generate mercury contamination also bring wildlife into close contact with humans and domestic animals. However, the interactions among contaminants, immunity and infection are difficult to study in natural systems, and empirical tests of possible directional relationships remain rare.
We capitalized on extreme mercury variation in a diverse bat community in Belize to test association among contaminants, immunity and infection. By comparing a previous dataset of bats sampled in 2014 with new data from 2017, representing a period of rapid agricultural land conversion, we first confirmed bat species more reliant on aquatic prey had higher fur mercury. Bats in the agricultural habitat also had higher mercury in recent years. We then tested covariation between mercury and cellular immunity and determined if such relationships mediated associations between mercury and bacterial pathogens. As bat ecology can dictate exposure to mercury and pathogens, we also assessed species‐specific patterns in mercury–infection relationships.
Across the bat community, individuals with higher mercury had fewer neutrophils but not lymphocytes, suggesting stronger associations with innate immunity. However, the odds of infection for haemoplasmas andBartonellaspp. were generally lowest in bats with high mercury, and relationships between mercury and immunity did not mediate infection patterns. Mercury also showed species‐ and clade‐specific relationships with infection, being associated with especially low odds for haemoplasmas inPteronotus mesoamericanusandDermanura phaeotis. ForBartonellaspp., mercury was associated with particularly low odds of infection in the genusPteronotusbut high odds in the subfamily Stenodermatinae.
Synthesis and application. Lower general infection risk in bats with high mercury despite weaker innate defense suggests contaminant‐driven loss of pathogen habitat (i.e. anemia) or vector mortality as possible causes. Greater attention to these potential pathways could help disentangle relationships among contaminants, immunity and infection in anthropogenic habitats and help forecast disease risks. Our results also suggest that contaminants may increase infection risk in some taxa but not others, emphasizing the importance of considering surveillance and management at different phylogenetic scales.
Ingala, Melissa R.; Becker, Daniel J.; Bak Holm, Jacob; Kristiansen, Karsten; Simmons, Nancy B.(
, Ecology and Evolution)
Abstract
Host ecological factors and external environmental factors are known to influence the structure of gut microbial communities, but few studies have examined the impacts of environmental changes on microbiotas in free‐ranging animals. Rapid land‐use change has the potential to shift gut microbial communities in wildlife through exposure to novel bacteria and/or by changing the availability or quality of local food resources. The consequences of such changes to host health and fitness remain unknown and may have important implications for pathogen spillover between humans and wildlife. To better understand the consequences of land‐use change on wildlife microbiotas, we analyzed long‐term dietary trends, gut microbiota composition, and innate immune function in common vampire bats (Desmodus rotundus) in two nearby sites in Belize that vary in landscape structure. We found that vampire bats living in a small forest fragment had more homogenous diets indicative of feeding on livestock and shifts in microbiota heterogeneity, but not overall composition, compared to those living in an intact forest reserve. We also found that irrespective of sampling site, vampire bats which consumed relatively more livestock showed shifts in some core bacteria compared with vampire bats which consumed relatively less livestock. The relative abundance of some core microbiota members was associated with innate immune function, suggesting that future research should consider the role of the host microbiota in immune defense and its relationship to zoonotic infection dynamics. We suggest that subsequent homogenization of diet and habitat loss through livestock rearing in the Neotropics may lead to disruption to the microbiota that could have downstream impacts on host immunity and cross‐species pathogen transmission.
Ralimanana, Hélène; Perrigo, Allison L.; Smith, Rhian J.; Borrell, James S.; Faurby, Søren; Rajaonah, Mamy Tiana; Randriamboavonjy, Tianjanahary; Vorontsova, Maria S.; Cooke, Robert S.; Phelps, Leanne N.; et al(
, Science)
BACKGROUND Madagascar is one of the world’s foremost biodiversity hotspots. Its unique assemblage of plants, animals, and fungi—the majority of which evolved on the island and occur nowhere else—is both diverse and threatened. After human arrival, the island’s entire megafauna became extinct, and large portions of the current flora and fauna may be on track for a similar fate. Conditions for the long-term survival of many Malagasy species are not currently met because of multiple anthropogenic threats. ADVANCES We review the extinction risk and threats to biodiversity in Madagascar, using available international assessment data as well as a machine learning analysis to predict the extinction risks and threats to plant species lacking assessments. Our compilation of global International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Red List assessments shows that overexploitation alongside unsustainable agricultural practices affect 62.1 and 56.8% of vertebrate species, respectively, and each affects nearly 90% of all plant species. Other threats have a relatively minor effect today but are expected to increase in coming decades. Because only one-third (4652) of all Malagasy plant species have been formally assessed, we carried out a neural network analysis to predict the putative status and threats for 5887 unassessed species and to evaluate biases in current assessments. The percentage of plant species currently assessed as under threat is probably representative of actual numbers, except in the case of the ferns and lycophytes, where significantly more species are estimated to be threatened. We find that Madagascar is home to a disproportionately high number of Evolutionarily Distinct and Globally Endangered (EDGE) species. This further highlights the urgency for evidence-based and effective in situ and ex situ conservation. Despite these alarming statistics and trends, we find that 10.4% of Madagascar’s land area is protected and that the network of protected areas (PAs) covers at least part of the range of 97.1% of terrestrial and freshwater vertebrates with known distributions (amphibians, freshwater fishes, reptiles, birds, and mammal species combined) and 67.7% of plant species (for threatened species, the percentages are 97.7% for vertebrates and 79.6% for plants). Complementary to this, ex situ collections hold 18% of vertebrate species and 23% of plant species. Nonetheless, there are still many threatened species that do not occur within PAs and are absent from ex situ collections, including one amphibian, three mammals, and seven reptiles, as well as 559 plants and more yet to be assessed. Based on our updated vegetation map, we find that the current PA network provides good coverage of the major habitats, particularly mangroves, spiny forest, humid forest, and tapia, but subhumid forest and grassland-woodland mosaic have very low areas under protection (5.7 and 1.8% respectively). OUTLOOK Madagascar is among the world’s poorest countries, and its biodiversity is a key resource for the sustainable future and well-being of its citizens. Current threats to Madagascar’s biodiversity are deeply rooted in historical and present social contexts, including widespread inequalities. We therefore propose five opportunities for action to further conservation in a just and equitable way. First, investment in conservation and restoration must be based on evidence and effectiveness and be tailored to meet future challenges through inclusive solutions. Second, expanded biodiversity monitoring, including increased dataset production and availability, is key. Third, improving the effectiveness of existing PAs—for example through community engagement, training, and income opportunities—is more important than creating new ones. Fourth, conservation and restoration should not focus solely on the PA network but should also include the surrounding landscapes and communities. And finally, conservation actions must address the root causes of biodiversity loss, including poverty and food insecurity. In the eyes of much of the world, Madagascar’s biodiversity is a unique global asset that needs saving; in the daily lives of many of the Malagasy people, it is a rapidly diminishing source of the most basic needs for subsistence. Protecting Madagascar’s biodiversity while promoting social development for its people is a matter of the utmost urgency Visual representation of five key opportunities for conserving and restoring Madagascar’s rapidly declining biodiversity identified in this Review. The dashed lines point to representative vegetation types where these recommendations could have tangible effects, but the opportunities are applicable across Madagascar. ILLUSTRATION: INESSA VOET
Vinson, John E., Gottdenker, Nicole L., Chaves, Luis Fernando, Kaul, RajReni B., Kramer, Andrew M., Drake, John M., and Hall, Richard J. Land reversion and zoonotic spillover risk. Retrieved from https://par.nsf.gov/biblio/10357491. Royal Society Open Science 9.6 Web. doi:10.1098/rsos.220582.
Vinson, John E., Gottdenker, Nicole L., Chaves, Luis Fernando, Kaul, RajReni B., Kramer, Andrew M., Drake, John M., & Hall, Richard J. Land reversion and zoonotic spillover risk. Royal Society Open Science, 9 (6). Retrieved from https://par.nsf.gov/biblio/10357491. https://doi.org/10.1098/rsos.220582
Vinson, John E., Gottdenker, Nicole L., Chaves, Luis Fernando, Kaul, RajReni B., Kramer, Andrew M., Drake, John M., and Hall, Richard J.
"Land reversion and zoonotic spillover risk". Royal Society Open Science 9 (6). Country unknown/Code not available. https://doi.org/10.1098/rsos.220582.https://par.nsf.gov/biblio/10357491.
@article{osti_10357491,
place = {Country unknown/Code not available},
title = {Land reversion and zoonotic spillover risk},
url = {https://par.nsf.gov/biblio/10357491},
DOI = {10.1098/rsos.220582},
abstractNote = {Deforestation alters wildlife communities and modifies human–wildlife interactions, often increasing zoonotic spillover potential. When deforested land reverts to forest, species composition differences between primary and regenerating (secondary) forest could alter spillover risk trajectory. We develop a mathematical model of land-use change, where habitats differ in their relative spillover risk, to understand how land reversion influences spillover risk. We apply this framework to scenarios where spillover risk is higher in deforested land than mature forest, reflecting higher relative abundance of highly competent species and/or increased human–wildlife encounters, and where regenerating forest has either very low or high spillover risk. We find the forest regeneration rate, the spillover risk of regenerating forest relative to deforested land, and how rapidly regenerating forest regains attributes of mature forest determine landscape-level spillover risk. When regenerating forest has a much lower spillover risk than deforested land, reversion lowers cumulative spillover risk, but instaneous spillover risk peaks earlier. However, when spillover risk is high in regenerating and cleared habitats, landscape-level spillover risk remains high, especially when cleared land is rapidly abandoned then slowly regenerates to mature forest. These results suggest that proactive wildlife management and awareness of human exposure risk in regenerating forests could be important tools for spillover mitigation.},
journal = {Royal Society Open Science},
volume = {9},
number = {6},
author = {Vinson, John E. and Gottdenker, Nicole L. and Chaves, Luis Fernando and Kaul, RajReni B. and Kramer, Andrew M. and Drake, John M. and Hall, Richard J.},
}
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