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Objectives Researchers have long studied the persistence of violence and aggravation from disorder to violence in communities. Recently this work has begun to consider how these phenomena might operate simultaneously at multiple geographic scales. We examine the role of neighborhoods, streets, and addresses in these phenomena, presenting and assessing a five-part typology for cross-scale interactions. Methods We calculated six measures of physical disorder, social disorder, and violent crime from administrative records for all parcels (i.e., addresses) in Boston, MA, for 2011–2016. Multilevel models used these measures to predict public violence and gun-related events in the following year at all three geographical scales and with cross-scale interactions. Results Persistence was common at all scales. Aggravation from disorder to crime was greatest for addresses. Nearly all significant cross-level interactions involved addresses. The most common interactions were reinforced persistence, when persistence of violence at an address was reinforced by violence in the street or neighborhood; and mediated persistence, when persistence at a higher geographic scale operated through addresses with disorder. Conclusions The study suggests that action is greatest at addresses, but streets and neighborhoods offer critical context. It also provides a framework for future work assessing the complementarity of communities and places.
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The Emergence and Evolution of Problematic Properties: Onset, Persistence, Aggravation, and Desistance
Objectives Scholars and practitioners have paid increasing attention to problematic properties, but little is known about how they emerge and evolve. We examine four phenomena suggested by life-course theory that reflect stability and change in crime and disorder at properties: onset of issues; persistence of issues; aggravation to more serious types of issues; and desistance of issues. We sought to identify the frequency and dynamics of each. Methods We analyze how residential parcels (similar to properties) in Boston, MA shifted between profiles of crime and disorder from 2011 to 2018. 911 dispatches and 311 requests provided six measures of physical disorder, social disorder, and violence for all parcels. K-means clustering placed each parcel into one of six profiles of crime and disorder for each year. Markov chains quantified how properties moved between profiles year-to-year. Results Onset was relatively infrequent and more often manifested as disorder than violence. Pathways of aggravation led from less serious profiles to a mixture of violence and disorder. Desistance was more likely to occur as de-escalations along these pathways then complete cessation of issues. In neighborhoods with above-average crime, persistence was more prevalent whereas desistance less often culminated in cessation, even relative to local expectations. Conclusions The results offer insights for further research and practice attentive to trends of crime and disorder at problematic properties. It especially speaks to the understanding of stability and change; the role of different types of disorder; and the toolkit needed for problem properties interventions.
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- Award ID(s):
- 1921281
- PAR ID:
- 10357709
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- Journal of Quantitative Criminology
- ISSN:
- 0748-4518
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
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- Free Publicly Accessible Full Text
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Accepted Manuscript1.0
- Journal Article:
- https://doi.org/10.1007/s10940-022-09542-z
