An official website of the United States government
Objectives Scholars and practitioners have paid increasing attention to problematic properties, but little is known about how they emerge and evolve. We examine four phenomena suggested by life-course theory that reflect stability and change in crime and disorder at properties: onset of issues; persistence of issues; aggravation to more serious types of issues; and desistance of issues. We sought to identify the frequency and dynamics of each. Methods We analyze how residential parcels (similar to properties) in Boston, MA shifted between profiles of crime and disorder from 2011 to 2018. 911 dispatches and 311 requests provided six measures of physical disorder, social disorder, and violence for all parcels. K-means clustering placed each parcel into one of six profiles of crime and disorder for each year. Markov chains quantified how properties moved between profiles year-to-year. Results Onset was relatively infrequent and more often manifested as disorder than violence. Pathways of aggravation led from less serious profiles to a mixture of violence and disorder. Desistance was more likely to occur as de-escalations along these pathways then complete cessation of issues. In neighborhoods with above-average crime, persistence was more prevalent whereas desistance less often culminated in cessation, even relative to local expectations. Conclusions The results offer insights for further research and practice attentive to trends of crime and disorder at problematic properties. It especially speaks to the understanding of stability and change; the role of different types of disorder; and the toolkit needed for problem properties interventions.
more »
« less
Whence the Action? the Persistence and Aggravation of Violent Crime at Addresses, Streets, and Neighborhoods
Objectives Researchers have long studied the persistence of violence and aggravation from disorder to violence in communities. Recently this work has begun to consider how these phenomena might operate simultaneously at multiple geographic scales. We examine the role of neighborhoods, streets, and addresses in these phenomena, presenting and assessing a five-part typology for cross-scale interactions. Methods We calculated six measures of physical disorder, social disorder, and violent crime from administrative records for all parcels (i.e., addresses) in Boston, MA, for 2011–2016. Multilevel models used these measures to predict public violence and gun-related events in the following year at all three geographical scales and with cross-scale interactions. Results Persistence was common at all scales. Aggravation from disorder to crime was greatest for addresses. Nearly all significant cross-level interactions involved addresses. The most common interactions were reinforced persistence, when persistence of violence at an address was reinforced by violence in the street or neighborhood; and mediated persistence, when persistence at a higher geographic scale operated through addresses with disorder. Conclusions The study suggests that action is greatest at addresses, but streets and neighborhoods offer critical context. It also provides a framework for future work assessing the complementarity of communities and places.
more »
« less
- Award ID(s):
- 1921281
- PAR ID:
- 10357706
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- Journal of Research in Crime and Delinquency
- ISSN:
- 0022-4278
- Page Range / eLocation ID:
- 002242782211128
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
More Like this
-
-
Abstract Certain places generate inordinate amounts of crime and disorder. We examine how places differ in their nature of crime and disorder, with three objectives: (1) identifying a typology of profiles of crime and disorder; (2) assessing whether different forms of crime and disorder co-locate at parcels; and (3) determining whether problematic parcels explain crime and disorder across neighborhoods. The study uses 911 and 311 records to quantify physical and social disorder and violent crime at residential parcels in Boston, MA (n = 81,673). K-means cluster analyses identified the typology of problematic parcels and how those types were distributed across census block groups. Cluster analysis identified five types of problematic parcels, four specializing in one form of crime or disorder and one that combined all issues. The second cluster analysis found that the distribution of problematic parcels described the spectrum from low- to high-crime neighborhoods, plus commercial districts with many parcels with public physical disorder. Problematic parcels modestly explained levels of crime across neighborhoods. The results suggest a need for diverse intervention strategies to support different types of problematic parcels; and that neighborhood dynamics pertaining to crime are greater than problematic properties alone.more » « less
-
This article develops and assesses the concept of triple neighborhood disadvantage. We argue that a neighborhood’s well-being depends not only on its own socioeconomic conditions but also on the conditions of neighborhoods its residents visit and are visited by, connections that form through networks of everyday urban mobility. We construct measures of mobility-based disadvantage using geocoded patterns of movement estimated from hundreds of millions of tweets sent by nearly 400,000 Twitter users over 18 months. Analyzing nearly 32,000 neighborhoods and 9,700 homicides in 37 of the largest U.S. cities, we show that neighborhood triple disadvantage independently predicts homicides, adjusting for traditional neighborhood correlates of violence, spatial proximity to disadvantage, prior homicides, and city fixed effects. Not only is triple disadvantage a stronger predictor than traditional measures, it accounts for a sizable portion of the association between residential neighborhood disadvantage and homicides. In turn, potential mechanisms such as neighborhood drug activity, interpersonal friction, and gun crime prevalence account for much of the association between triple disadvantage and homicides. These findings implicate structural mobility patterns as an important source of triple (dis)advantage for neighborhoods and have implications for a broad range of phenomena beyond crime, including community capacity, gentrification, transmission in a pandemic, and racial inequality.more » « less
-
null (Ed.)Objectives. To examine the relationships among environmental characteristics, temperature, and health outcomes during heat advisories at the geographic scale of street segments. Methods. We combined multiple data sets from Boston, Massachusetts, including remotely sensed measures of temperature and associated environmental characteristics (e.g., canopy cover), 911 dispatches for medical emergencies, daily weather conditions, and demographic and physical context from the American Community Survey and City of Boston Property Assessments. We used multilevel models to analyze the distribution of land surface temperature and elevated vulnerability during heat advisories across streets and neighborhoods. Results. A substantial proportion of variation in land surface temperature existed between streets within census tracts (38%), explained by canopy, impervious surface, and albedo. Streets with higher land surface temperature had a greater likelihood of medical emergencies during heat advisories relative to the frequency of medical emergencies during non–heat advisory periods. There was no independent effect of the average land surface temperature of the census tract. Conclusions. The relationships among environmental characteristics, temperature, and health outcomes operate at the spatial scale of the street segment, calling for more geographically precise analysis and intervention.more » « less
-
Research SummaryThe onset of extreme social distancing measures is expected to have a dramatic impact on crime. Here, we examine the impact of mandated, city‐wide social distancing orders aimed at limiting the spread of COVID‐19 on gang‐related crime in Los Angeles. We hypothesize that the unique subcultural processes surrounding gangs may supersede calls to shelter in place and allow gang‐related crime to persist. If the normal guardianship of people and property is also disrupted by social distancing, then we expect gang violence to increase. Using autoregressive time series models, we show that gang‐related crime remained stable and crime hot spots largely stationary following the onset of shelter in place. Policy ImplicationsIn responding to disruptions to social and economic life on the scale of the present pandemic, both police and civilian organizations need to anticipate continued demand, all while managing potential reductions to workforce. Police are faced with this challenge across a wide array of crime types. Civilian interventionists tasked with responding to gang‐related crime need to be prepared for continued peacekeeping and violence interruption activities, but also an expansion of responsibilities to deal with “frontline” or “street‐level” management of public health needs.more » « less
- Free Publicly Accessible Full Text
-
Accepted Manuscript1.0
- Journal Article:
- https://doi.org/10.1177/00224278221112839
