An official website of the United States government
Abstract Planets in synchronous rotation around low-mass stars are the most salient targets for current ground- and space-based missions to observe and characterize. Such model calculations can help to prioritize targets for observation with current and future missions; however, intrinsic differences in the complexity and physical parameterizations of various models can lead to different predictions of a planet’s climate state. Understanding model differences is necessary if such models are to guide target selection and aid in the analysis of observations. This paper presents a protocol to intercompare models of a hypothetical planet with a 15-day synchronous rotation period around a 3000 K blackbody star across a parameter space of surface pressure and incident instellation. We conduct a sparse sample of 16 cases from a previously published exploration of this parameter space with the ExoPlaSim model. By selecting particular cases across this broad parameter space, the SAMOSA intercomparison will identify areas where simpler models are sufficient, as well as areas where more complex GCMs are required. Our preliminary comparison using ExoCAM shows general consistency between the climate state predicted by ExoCAM and ExoPlaSim except in regions of the parameter space most likely to be in a steam atmosphere or incipient runaway greenhouse state. We use this preliminary analysis to define several options for participation in the intercomparison by models of all levels of complexity. The participation of other GCMs is crucial to understand how the atmospheric states across this parameter space differ with model capabilities.
more »
« less
Heppa III Intercomparison Experiment on Electron Precipitation Impacts: 2. Model‐Measurement Intercomparison of Nitric Oxide (NO) During a Geomagnetic Storm in April 2010
- Award ID(s):
- 1651428
- PAR ID:
- 10358089
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- Journal of Geophysical Research: Space Physics
- Volume:
- 127
- Issue:
- 1
- ISSN:
- 2169-9380
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
More Like this
-
-
Abstract. Changes in anthropogenic aerosol emissions have strongly contributed to global and regional trends in temperature, precipitation, and other climate characteristics and have been one of the dominant drivers of decadal trends in Asian and African precipitation. These and other influences on regional climate from changes in aerosol emissions are expected to continue and potentially strengthen in the coming decades. However, a combination of large uncertainties in emission pathways, radiative forcing, and the dynamical response to forcing makes anthropogenic aerosol a key factor in the spread of near-term climate projections, particularly on regional scales, and therefore an important one to constrain. For example, in terms of future emission pathways, the uncertainty in future global aerosol and precursor gas emissions by 2050 is as large as the total increase in emissions since 1850. In terms of aerosol effective radiative forcing, which remains the largest source of uncertainty in future climate change projections, CMIP6 models span a factor of 5, from −0.3 to −1.5 W m−2. Both of these sources of uncertainty are exacerbated on regional scales. The Regional Aerosol Model Intercomparison Project (RAMIP) will deliver experiments designed to quantify the role of regional aerosol emissions changes in near-term projections. This is unlike any prior MIP, where the focus has been on changes in global emissions and/or very idealised aerosol experiments. Perturbing regional emissions makes RAMIP novel from a scientific standpoint and links the intended analyses more directly to mitigation and adaptation policy issues. From a science perspective, there is limited information on how realistic regional aerosol emissions impact local as well as remote climate conditions. Here, RAMIP will enable an evaluation of the full range of potential influences of realistic and regionally varied aerosol emission changes on near-future climate. From the policy perspective, RAMIP addresses the burning question of how local and remote decisions affecting emissions of aerosols influence climate change in any given region. Here, RAMIP will provide the information needed to make direct links between regional climate policies and regional climate change. RAMIP experiments are designed to explore sensitivities to aerosol type and location and provide improved constraints on uncertainties driven by aerosol radiative forcing and the dynamical response to aerosol changes. The core experiments will assess the effects of differences in future global and regional (Africa and the Middle East, East Asia, North America and Europe, and South Asia) aerosol emission trajectories through 2051, while optional experiments will test the nonlinear effects of varying emission locations and aerosol types along this future trajectory. All experiments are based on the shared socioeconomic pathways and are intended to be performed with 6th Climate Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) generation models, initialised from the CMIP6 historical experiments, to facilitate comparisons with existing projections. Requested outputs will enable the analysis of the role of aerosol in near-future changes in, for example, temperature and precipitation means and extremes, storms, and air quality.more » « less
-
Abstract. Large-scale interaction between the three tropical ocean basins is an area of intense research that is often conducted through experimentation with numerical models. A common problem is that modeling groups use different experimental setups, which makes it difficult to compare results and delineate the role of model biases from differences in experimental setups. To address this issue, an experimental protocol for examining interaction between the tropical basins is introduced. The Tropical Basin Interaction Model Intercomparison Project (TBIMIP) consists of experiments in which sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are prescribed to follow observed values in selected basins. There are two types of experiments. One type, called standard pacemaker, consists of simulations in which SSTs are restored to observations in selected basins during a historical simulation. The other type, called pacemaker hindcast, consists of seasonal hindcast simulations in which SSTs are restored to observations during 12-month forecast periods. TBIMIP is coordinated by the Climate and Ocean – Variability, Predictability, and Change (CLIVAR) Research Focus on Tropical Basin Interaction. The datasets from the model simulations will be made available to the community to facilitate and stimulate research on tropical basin interaction and its role in seasonal-to-decadal variability and climate change.more » « less
-
Abstract. Large-scale climatic forcing is impactingoceanic biogeochemical cycles and is expected to influence the water-columndistribution of trace gases, including methane and nitrous oxide. Our abilityas a scientific community to evaluate changes in the water-column inventoriesof methane and nitrous oxide depends largely on our capacity to obtain robustand accurate concentration measurements that can be validated acrossdifferent laboratory groups. This study represents the first formalinternational intercomparison of oceanic methane and nitrous oxidemeasurements whereby participating laboratories received batches of seawatersamples from the subtropical Pacific Ocean and the Baltic Sea. Additionally,compressed gas standards from the same calibration scale were distributed tothe majority of participating laboratories to improve the analytical accuracyof the gas measurements. The computations used by each laboratory to derivethe dissolved gas concentrations were also evaluated for inconsistencies(e.g., pressure and temperature corrections, solubility constants). Theresults from the intercomparison and intercalibration provided invaluableinsights into methane and nitrous oxide measurements. It was observed thatanalyses of seawater samples with the lowest concentrations of methane andnitrous oxide had the lowest precisions. In comparison, while the analyticalprecision for samples with the highest concentrations of trace gases wasbetter, the variability between the different laboratories was higher:36% for methane and 27% for nitrous oxide. In addition, thecomparison of different batches of seawater samples with methane and nitrousoxide concentrations that ranged over an order of magnitude revealed theramifications of different calibration procedures for each trace gas.Finally, this study builds upon the intercomparison results to developrecommendations for improving oceanic methane and nitrous oxide measurements,with the aim of precluding future analytical discrepancies betweenlaboratories.more » « less
- Free Publicly Accessible Full Text
-
Accepted Manuscript1.0
- Journal Article:
- https://doi.org/10.1029/2021JA029466
