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Abstract In around 1990, significant shifts occurred in the spatial pattern and temporal evolution of the El Niño‐Southern Oscillation (ENSO), with these shifts showing asymmetry between El Niño and La Niña phases. El Niño transitioned from the Eastern Pacific (EP) to the Central Pacific (CP) type, while La Niña's multi‐year (MY) events increased. These changes correlated with shifts in ENSO dynamics. Before 1990, El Niño was influenced by the Tropical Pacific (TP) ENSO dynamic, shifting to the Subtropical Pacific (SP) ENSO dynamic afterward, altering its spatial pattern. La Niña was influenced by the SP ENSO dynamic both before and after 1990 and has maintained the CP type. The strengthened SP ENSO dynamic since 1990, accompanied by enhanced precipitation efficiency during La Niña, make it easier for La Niña to transition into MY events. In contrast, there is no observed increase in precipitation efficiency during El Niño.
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ENSO Regime Changes Responsible for Decadal Phase Relationship Variations Between ENSO Sea Surface Temperature and Warm Water Volume
Abstract The relationship between the equatorial Pacific warm water volume (WWV) and El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) sea surface temperature (SST) has varied considerably on decadal timescales. These changes are strongly related to the occurrence frequency of central Pacific (CP) ENSO events. While both eastern Pacific (EP) and CP ENSO events show clear signatures of WWV recharge/discharge, their phase‐lag relationships between WWV and Niño3.4 SST are different. The WWV usually leads the Niño3.4 SST by two to three seasons during EP ENSO, while the lead time is reduced to one season during CP ENSO. The different phase‐lag relationships can be explained by distinct periodicities of the two ENSO types. Hence, ENSO regime changes associated with decadal predominance of either EP or CP ENSO events can give rise to decadal variations in the statistical WWV‐ENSO SST relationship. We emphasize the importance of identifying these different ENSO types and potentially different ENSO regimes to assess ENSO predictability.
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- Award ID(s):
- 1813611
- PAR ID:
- 10360205
- Publisher / Repository:
- DOI PREFIX: 10.1029
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- Geophysical Research Letters
- Volume:
- 46
- Issue:
- 13
- ISSN:
- 0094-8276
- Page Range / eLocation ID:
- p. 7546-7553
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
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