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Abstract Resilience, measured by the distribution of passage times between alternate states, indicates persistence of a state in stochastic dynamic systems such as blooms of cyanobacteria in lakes. We used high‐frequency datasets to compare the resilience of low and high states of phycocyanin, a pigment indicator of cyanobacteria, in Lake Mendota, Wisconsin, USA, for three growing seasons that ranged sevenfold in external phosphorus (P) load. Each year we observed 139–265 passage times across the unstable threshold that separated the low‐ from high‐phycocyanin states. Each sample of passage times is highly skewed with low median, larger mean, much larger SD, and wide tails extending to long lifetimes of a state. About 25% of events, whether low or high phycocyanin, lasted a day or more. Among these 3 years of contrasting external P load, there were no discernible differences in the resilience of either ecosystem state. We attribute this lack of contrast to the sustained recycling of P from sediments and the high stochasticity of phycocyanin in this lake.
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Stochastic dynamics of Cyanobacteria in long‐term high‐frequency observations of a eutrophic lake
Abstract Concentrations of phycocyanin, a pigment of Cyanobacteria, were measured at 1‐min intervals during the ice‐free seasons of 2008–2018 by automated sensors suspended from a buoy at a central station in Lake Mendota, Wisconsin, U.S.A. In each year, stochastic‐dynamic models fitted to time series of log‐transformed phycocyanin concentration revealed two alternative stable states and random factors that were much larger than the difference between the alternate stable states. Transitions between low and high states were abrupt and apparently driven by stochasticity. Variation in annual magnitudes of the alternate states and the stochastic factors were not correlated with annual phosphorus input to the lake. At daily time scales, however, phycocyanin concentration was correlated with phosphorus input, precipitation, and wind velocity for time lags of 1–15 d. Multiple years of high‐frequency data were needed to discern these patterns in the noise‐dominated dynamics of Cyanobacteria.
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- Award ID(s):
- 2025982
- PAR ID:
- 10360877
- Publisher / Repository:
- Wiley Blackwell (John Wiley & Sons)
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- Limnology and Oceanography Letters
- Volume:
- 5
- Issue:
- 5
- ISSN:
- 2378-2242
- Page Range / eLocation ID:
- p. 331-336
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
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