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Abstract Although perennially ice‐covered Antarctic lakes have experienced variable ice thicknesses over the past several decades, future ice thickness trends and associated aquatic biological responses under projected global warming remain unknown. Heat stored in the water column in chemically stratified Antarctic lakes that have middepth temperature maxima can significantly influence the ice thickness trends via upward heat flux to the ice/water interface. We modeled the ice thickness of the west lobe of Lake Bonney, Antarctica, based on possible future climate scenarios utilizing a 1D thermodynamic model that accounts for surface radiative fluxes as well as the heat flux associated with the temperature evolution of the water column. Model results predict that the ice cover of Lake Bonney will shift from perennial to seasonal within one to four decades, a change that will drastically influence ecosystem processes within the lake.
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Snowpack determines relative importance of climate factors driving summer lake warming
Abstract Mountain lakes experience extreme interannual climate variation as well as rapidly warming air temperatures, making them ideal systems to understand lake‐climate responses. Snowpack and water temperature are highly correlated in mountain lakes, but we lack a complete understanding of underlying mechanisms. Motivated by predicted declines in snowfall with future temperature increases, we investigated how surface heat fluxes and lake warming responded to variation in snowpack, ice‐off, and summer weather patterns in a high elevation lake in the Sierra Nevada, California. Ice‐off timing determined the phenology of lake exposure to solar radiation, and was the dominant mechanism linking snowpack to lake temperature. The relative importance of heat loss fluxes (longwave radiation, latent and sensible heat exchange) varied among wet and dry years. Declines in snowpack and ice cover in mountain systems will reduce variability in lake thermal responses and increase the responsiveness of lake warming to atmospheric forcing.
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- Award ID(s):
- 1725266
- PAR ID:
- 10360962
- Publisher / Repository:
- Wiley Blackwell (John Wiley & Sons)
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- Limnology and Oceanography Letters
- Volume:
- 5
- Issue:
- 3
- ISSN:
- 2378-2242
- Page Range / eLocation ID:
- p. 271-279
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
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