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Title: Nonlinear responses in interannual variability of lake ice to climate change
Abstract Climate change is contributing to rapid changes in lake ice cover across the Northern Hemisphere, thereby impacting local communities and ecosystems. Using lake ice cover time‐series spanning over 87 yr for 43 lakes across the Northern Hemisphere, we found that the interannual variability in ice duration, measured as standard deviation, significantly increased in only half of our studied lakes. We observed that the interannual variability in ice duration peaked when lakes were, on average, covered by ice for about 1 month, while both longer and shorter long‐term mean ice cover duration resulted in lower interannual variability in ice duration. These results demonstrate that the ice cover duration can become so short that the interannual variability rapidly declines. The interannual variability in ice duration showed a strong dependency on global temperature anomalies and teleconnections, such as the North Atlantic Oscillation and El Niño–Southern Oscillation. We conclude that many lakes across the Northern Hemisphere will experience a decline in interannual ice cover variability and shift to open water during the winter under a continued global warming trend which will affect lake biological, cultural, and economic processes.  more » « less
Award ID(s):
2025982
PAR ID:
10571872
Author(s) / Creator(s):
; ; ; ; ; ; ;
Publisher / Repository:
Association for the Sciences of Limnology and Oceanography
Date Published:
Journal Name:
Limnology and Oceanography
Volume:
69
Issue:
4
ISSN:
0024-3590
Page Range / eLocation ID:
789 to 801
Format(s):
Medium: X
Sponsoring Org:
National Science Foundation
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