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Abstract Emission of anthropogenic greenhouse gases has resulted in greater Arctic warming compared to global warming, known as Arctic amplification (AA). From an energy‐balance perspective, the current Arctic climate is in radiative‐advective equilibrium (RAE) regime, in which radiative cooling is balanced by advective heat flux convergence. Exploiting a suite of climate model simulations with varying carbon dioxide () concentrations, we link the northern high‐latitude regime variation and transition to AA. The dominance of RAE regime in northern high‐latitudes under reduction relates to stronger AA, whereas the RAE regime transition to non‐RAE regime under increase corresponds to a weaker AA. Examinations on the spatial and seasonal structures reveal that lapse‐rate and sea‐ice processes are crucial mechanisms. Our findings suggest that if concentration continues to rise, the Arctic could transition into a non‐RAE regime accompanied with a weaker AA.
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Quantifying Energy Balance Regimes in the Modern Climate, Their Link to Lapse Rate Regimes, and Their Response to Warming
Abstract Energy balance and lapse rate regimes qualitatively characterize the low, middle, and high latitudes of Earth’s modern climate. Currently we do not have a complete quantitative understanding of the spatiotemporal structure of energy balance regimes [e.g., radiative convective equilibrium (RCE) and radiative advective equilibrium (RAE)] and their connection to lapse rate regimes (moist adiabat and surface inversion). Here we use the vertically integrated moist static energy budget to define a nondimensional number that quantifies where and when RCE and RAE are approximately satisfied in Earth’s modern climate. We find RCE exists year-round in the tropics and in the northern midlatitudes during summertime. RAE exists year-round over Antarctica and in the Arctic with the exception of early summer. We show that lapse rates in RCE and RAE are consistent with moist adiabatic and surface inversion lapse rates, respectively. We use idealized models (energy balance and aquaplanet) to test the following hypotheses: 1) RCE occurs during midlatitude summer for land-like (small heat capacity) surface conditions, and 2) sea ice is necessary for the existence of annual-mean RAE over a polar ocean, such as the Arctic. Consistent with point 1, an aquaplanet configured with a shallow mixed layer transitions to RCE in the midlatitudes during summertime whereas it does not for a deep mixed layer. Furthermore, we confirm point 2 using mechanism-denial aquaplanet experiments with and without thermodynamic sea ice. Finally, we show energy balance regimes of the modern climate provide a useful guide to the vertical structure of the warming response in the annual mean, and seasonally over the tropics and the southern high latitudes.
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- Award ID(s):
- 2033467
- PAR ID:
- 10361964
- Publisher / Repository:
- American Meteorological Society
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- Journal of Climate
- Volume:
- 35
- Issue:
- 3
- ISSN:
- 0894-8755
- Format(s):
- Medium: X Size: p. 1045-1061
- Size(s):
- p. 1045-1061
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
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