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Abstract The forecast potential of springtime ozone on April surface temperatures at particular locations in the Northern Hemisphere has been previously reported. Evidence suggests that early springtime Arctic stratospheric ozone acts as a proxy for extreme events in the winter polar vortex. Here, using a state‐of‐the‐art chemistry‐climate model, reanalysis and observations, we extend the forecast potential of ozone on surface temperatures to aspects of the Northern Hemisphere cryosphere. Sea ice fraction and sea ice extent differences between years of March high and low Arctic stratospheric ozone extremes show excellent agreement between an ensemble of chemistry‐climate model simulations and observations, with differences occurring not just in April but extending through to the following winter season in some locations. Large snow depth differences are also obtained in regional locations in Russia and along the southeast coast of Alaska. These differences remain elevated until early summer, when snow cover diminishes. Using a conditional empirical model in a leave‐three‐out cross validation method, March total column ozone is able to accurately predict the sign of the observed sea ice extent and snow depth anomalies over 70% of the time during an ozone extreme year, especially in the region of the Bering strait and the Greenland Sea, which could be useful for shipping routes and for testing climate models.
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Lagrangian Analysis of the Northern Stratospheric Polar Vortex Split in April 2020
Abstract The present study examines the northern stratosphere during April 2020, when the polar vortex split into two cyclonic vortices during a winter‐early spring period with the strongest ozone depletion on record. We investigate the dynamical evolution leading to the split at middle stratospheric levels, including the fate of fluid parcels on the vortex boundary during its rupture and the distribution of ozone between the vortices resulting from the split. We also illustrate the vertical structure of the vortices after the split. The findings obtained with Lagrangian methods confirm the key role for the split played by a flow with a special configuration of barriers to the motion of parcels. A trajectory analysis clarifies how the ozone distribution between vortices was such that ozone poorest air remained in the main vortex. The offspring vortex had a deep structure from the troposphere and later decayed to vanish by the end of April.
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- Award ID(s):
- 1832842
- PAR ID:
- 10362062
- Publisher / Repository:
- DOI PREFIX: 10.1029
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- Geophysical Research Letters
- Volume:
- 48
- Issue:
- 16
- ISSN:
- 0094-8276
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
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