Observed ecological responses to climate change are highly individualistic across species and locations, and understanding the drivers of this variability is essential for management and conservation efforts. While it is clear that differences in exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity all contribute to heterogeneity in climate change vulnerability, predicting these features at macroecological scales remains a critical challenge. We explore multiple drivers of heterogeneous vulnerability across the distributions of 96 vegetation types of the ecologically diverse western US, using data on observed climate trends from 1948 to 2014 to highlight emerging patterns of change. We ask three novel questions about factors potentially shaping vulnerability across the region: (a) How does sensitivity to different climate variables vary geographically and across vegetation classes? (b) How do multivariate climate exposure patterns interact with these sensitivities to shape vulnerability patterns? (c) How different are these vulnerability patterns according to three widely implemented vulnerability paradigms—niche novelty (decline in modeled suitability), temporal novelty (standardized anomaly), and spatial novelty (inbound climate velocity)—each of which uses a distinct frame of reference to quantify climate departure? We propose that considering these three novelty paradigms in combination could help improve our understanding and prediction of heterogeneous climate change responses, and we discuss the distinct climate adaptation strategies connected with different combinations of high and low novelty across the three metrics. Our results reveal a diverse mosaic of climate change vulnerability signatures across the region's plant communities. Each of the above factors contributes strongly to this heterogeneity: climate variable sensitivity exhibits clear patterns across vegetation types, multivariate climate change data reveal highly diverse exposure signatures across locations, and the three novelty paradigms diverge widely in their climate change vulnerability predictions. Together, these results shed light on potential drivers of individualistic climate change responses and may help to inform effective management strategies.
We conducted a spatially explicit vulnerability assessment of the forest industry in Maine, USA, to climate change in an effort to (1) advance a spatial framework for assessing forest industry vulnerability and (2) increase our understanding of Maine’s specific vulnerabilities to climate change in order to guide decision-making. We applied a bottom-up indicator approach to evaluate exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity to climate change using both biophysical and social indicators, largely driven by participatory processes. Our approach enabled us to synthesize and aggregate indicators of regional importance to evaluate vulnerability, allowing us to simultaneously examine combinations of potential changes. We found that each Maine county had its own unique combination of exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity indicators, with overall vulnerability highest in the rural northern and western parts of the state, where forest industry activities are most prevalent. However, results also indicate that although increased stress from climate-related changes can negatively affect Maine’s forest via high exposure, reduced sensitivities and increased adaptive capacity have the potential to largely decrease overall vulnerability in many parts of the state.
more » « less- Award ID(s):
- 1828466
- NSF-PAR ID:
- 10363442
- Publisher / Repository:
- Oxford University Press
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- Journal of Forestry
- Volume:
- 120
- Issue:
- 2
- ISSN:
- 0022-1201
- Format(s):
- Medium: X Size: p. 170-185
- Size(s):
- ["p. 170-185"]
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
More Like this
-
more » « less
Abstract -
more » « less
Abstract The Maine Department of Marine Resources (MEDMR) is a state agency tasked with developing, conserving, researching, and promoting commercial and recreational marine fisheries across Maine’s vast coastline. Close collaborations with industry members in each of the 30 or more fisheries that support Maine’s coastal economy are central to MEDMR’s efforts to address this suite of tasks. Here we reflect on recent decades of MEDMR's work and demonstrate how MEDMR fisheries research programmes are preparing for an uncertain future through the lens of three broadly applicable climate-driven challenges: (1) a rapidly changing marine ecosystem; (2) recommendations driven by state and federal climate initiatives; and (3) the need to share institutional knowledge with a new generation of marine resource scientists. We do this by highlighting our scientific and co-management approach to coastal Maine fisheries that have prospered, declined, or followed a unique trend over the last 25+ years. We use these examples to illustrate our lessons learned when studying a diverse array of fisheries, highlight the importance of collaborations with academia and the commercial fishing industry, and share our recommendations to marine resource scientists for addressing the climate-driven challenges that motivated this work.
-
more » « less
Abstract Genomic data are increasingly being integrated into macroecological forecasting, offering an evolutionary perspective that has been largely missing from global change biogeography. Genomic offset, which quantifies the disruption of genotype–environment associations under environmental change, allows for the incorporation of intraspecific climate‐associated genomic differentiation into forecasts of habitat suitability. Gradient Forest (GF) is a commonly used approach to estimate genomic offset; however, major hurdles in the application of GF‐derived genomic offsets are (1) an inability to interpret their absolute magnitude in an ecologically meaningful way and (2) uncertainty in how their implications compare with those of species‐level approaches like Ecological Niche Models (ENMs). Here, we assess the climate change vulnerability of red spruce (
Picea rubens ), a cool‐temperate tree species endemic to eastern North America, using both ENMs and GF modeling of genomic variation along climatic gradients. To gain better insights into climate change risks, we derive and apply two new threshold‐based genomic offset metrics—Donor and Recipient Importance—that quantify the transferability of propagules between donor populations and recipient localities while minimizing disruption of genotype–environment associations. We also propose and test a method for scaling genomic offsets relative to contemporary genomic variation across the landscape. In three common gardens, we found a significant negative relationship between (scaled) genomic offsets and red spruce growth and higher explanatory power for scaled offsets than climate transfer distances. However, the garden results also revealed the potential effects of spatial extrapolation and neutral genomic differentiation that can compromise the degree to which genomic offsets represent maladaptation and highlight the necessity of using common garden data to evaluate offset‐based predictions. ENMs and our novel genomic offset metrics forecasted drastic northward range shifts in suitable habitats. Combining inferences from our offset‐based metrics, we show that a northward shift mainly will be required for populations in the central and northern parts of red spruce's current range, whereas southern populations might persist in situ due to climate‐associated variation with less offset under future climate. These new genomic offset metrics thus yield refined, region‐specific prognoses for local persistence and show how management could be improved by considering assisted migration. -
more » « less
Abstract The concept of adaptive capacity has received significant attention within social-ecological and environmental change research. Within both the resilience and vulnerability literatures specifically, adaptive capacity has emerged as a fundamental concept for assessing the ability of social-ecological systems to adapt to environmental change. Although methods and indicators used to evaluate adaptive capacity are broad, the focus of existing scholarship has predominately been at the individual- and household- levels. However, the capacities necessary for humans to adapt to global environmental change are often a function of individual and societal characteristics, as well as cumulative and emergent capacities across communities and jurisdictions. In this paper, we apply a systematic literature review and co-citation analysis to investigate empirical research on adaptive capacity that focus on societal levels beyond the household. Our review demonstrates that assessments of adaptive capacity at higher societal levels are increasing in frequency, yet vary widely in approach, framing, and results; analyses focus on adaptive capacity at many different levels (e.g. community, municipality, global region), geographic locations, and cover multiple types of disturbances and their impacts across sectors. We also found that there are considerable challenges with regard to the ‘fit’ between data collected and analytical methods used in adequately capturing the cross-scale and cross-level determinants of adaptive capacity. Current approaches to assessing adaptive capacity at societal levels beyond the household tend to simply aggregate individual- or household-level data, which we argue oversimplifies and ignores the inherent interactions within and across societal levels of decision-making that shape the capacity of humans to adapt to environmental change across multiple scales. In order for future adaptive capacity research to be more practice-oriented and effectively guide policy, there is a need to develop indicators and assessments that are matched with the levels of potential policy applications.
-
more » « less
Abstract Forecasts from climate models and oceanographic observations indicate increasing deoxygenation in the global oceans and an elevated frequency and intensity of hypoxic events in the coastal zone, which have the potential to affect marine biodiversity and fisheries. Exposure to low dissolved oxygen (DO) conditions may have deleterious effects on early life stages in fishes. This study aims to identify thresholds to hypoxia while testing behavioral and physiological responses of two congeneric species of kelp forest fish to four DO levels, ranging from normoxic to hypoxic (8.7, 6.0, 4.1, and 2.2 mg O2/L). Behavioral tests identified changes in exploratory behavior and turning bias (lateralization), whereas physiological tests focused on determining changes in hypoxia tolerance (pCrit), ventilation rates, and metabolic rates, with impacts on the resulting capacity for aerobic activity. Our findings indicated that copper rockfish (
Sebastes caurinus ) and blue rockfish (Sebastes mystinus ) express sensitivity to hypoxia; however, the strength of the response differed between species. Copper rockfish exhibited reduced absolute lateralization and increased escape time at the lowest DO levels, whereas behavioral metrics for blue rockfish did not vary with oxygen level. Both species exhibited decreases in aerobic scope (as a function of reduced maximum metabolic rate) and increases in ventilation rates to compensate for decreasing oxygen levels. Blue rockfish had a lower pCrit and stronger acclimation response compared to copper rockfish. The differences expressed by each species suggest that acclimatization to changing ocean conditions may vary, even among related species that recruit to the same kelp forest habitat, leading to winners and losers under future ocean conditions. Exposure to hypoxia can decrease individual physiological fitness through metabolic and aerobic depression and changes to anti‐predator behavior, with implications for the outcome of ecological interactions and the management of fish stocks in the face of climate change.
