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1. Extremely Cold Climate and Social Vulnerability in Alaska: Problems and Prospects

   https://doi.org/10.3390/cli12020020  

   Grigorieva, Elena A; Walsh, John E; Alexeev, Vladimir A (February 2024, Climate)

   Cold exposure remains a significant public health concern, particularly in the Arctic regions prone to extremely cold weather. While the physical health impacts of cold exposure are well documented, understanding the social vulnerability aspects is crucial for effective mitigation and policy development. This study investigates the multifaceted dimensions of social vulnerability in the face of cold temperatures across various communities in Alaska. Alaska, renowned for its extreme cold temperatures and harsh environmental conditions, poses unique challenges to its residents, particularly in the context of social vulnerability. Drawing on a combination of quantitative data analysis and qualitative insights, we examine the factors contributing to social vulnerability, including demographic, economic, geographic, and infrastructural elements, in terms of the Extremely Cold Social Vulnerability Index, for seven Public Health Regions in Alaska. The Universal Thermal Climate Index in two very cold categories (<−27 °C) was used to identify cold exposure. Factors such as income, housing quality, health status, and resilience of the population play crucial roles in determining an individual or community’s sensitivity to, and ability to cope with, cold temperatures. Our analysis reveals that social vulnerability in Alaska is not uniform but varies significantly among regions. The research findings highlight the importance of considering factors of both sensitivity and adaptivity in understanding and addressing social vulnerability, thereby informing the development of targeted strategies and policies to enhance the resilience of Alaskan communities. As cold temperatures are projected to continue to challenge the region, addressing social vulnerability is essential for ensuring the well-being and safety of Alaska’s diverse populations. 

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2. Risk Factors and Wildfire Mitigation Planning by Public Utilities in Washington State

   https://doi.org/10.3390/fire8030118  

   Bradbury, Nickolas P; Cullen, Alison C (March 2025, Fire)

   Some of the most catastrophic fire events that have occurred in the western US in recent decades, such as the 2018 Camp Fire in California, were ignited by electric utility infrastructure. As wildfires and fire seasons intensify across the western United States, policymakers and utilities alike are working to mitigate the risk of wildfire as it relates to utility infrastructure. We pose the following research question: Is there an association between risk factors such as wildfire hazard potential and social vulnerability, and the inclusion of various strategies in mitigation planning by public or cooperative electric utilities in Washington, such as PSPS provisions and non-expulsion fuse installation? By applying statistical tools including t-tests and logistic regression modeling to test these potential associations, our analysis reveals statistically significant relationships between risk factors and the inclusion of specific wildfire mitigation strategies. We find that the inclusion of PSPS provisions in mitigation planning is significantly and nonlinearly associated with wildfire hazard potential, while social and socioeconomic vulnerability in the utility service area are negatively associated. Additionally, the installation of non-expulsion fuses is negatively associated with socioeconomic vulnerability in service populations. Overall, understanding the factors associated with wildfire mitigation planning can assist policymakers and state agencies in the prioritization of resources and practical support for utilities that may have limited capacity to mitigate wildfire risk. 

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3. Wildfire Risk: Anchorage and Fairbanks, Alaska and Whitehorse, Yukon 2024

   https://doi.org/10.18739/a2js9h98k  

   Schmidt, Jennifer (January 2025, NSF Arctic Data Center)

   While wildfires can be beneficial and part of a natural process, there have been numerous instances around the world, particularly in recent years, where wildfires have had devastating consequences for society. Weather conditions have created extreme wildfire behavior, resulting in speeds and intensities that can overpower suppression resources. It is ever more critical that communities and agencies take actions to mitigate and prevent wildfire disasters. We have developed a tool that enables wildfire practitioners to assess the risk of wildfire to structures in a straightforward, rapid, and affordable manner. The approach leverages information often collected by communities (e.g., building footprints, zoning) and available vegetation datasets. In conjunction with local wildfire management regulations, our project also used wildfire exposure to help identify wildland-urban interface boundaries. We used this approach on three communities in the Arctic (Anchorage and Fairbanks, Alaska, and Whitehorse, Yukon) to assess wildfire risk. We determined that there is considerable wildfire risk in urban Arctic communities, with a greater percentage of structures at high or very high risk in Fairbanks (26 percent (%)) and Whitehorse (22%) compared to Anchorage (14%). Combining local wildfire management practices with wildfire exposure is a successful way to identify meaningful Wildland Urban Interface (WUI) boundaries, which are essential for obtaining mitigation funds and planning. The key to producing updatable wildfire risk and vulnerability maps is accurate, up-to-date information on vegetation, building footprints, and zoning. With this information and the tool outlined here, communities and agencies have a way to inform community wildfire protection plans and identify impactful mitigation actions. 

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4. Spatial distribution of wildfire threat in the far north: exposure assessment in boreal communities

   https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-023-06365-4  

   Schmidt, Jennifer I; Ziel, Robert H; Calef, Monika P; Varvak, Anna (March 2024, Natural Hazards)

   Abstract Increased wildfire activity has raised concerns among communities about how to assess and prepare for this threat. There is a need for wildfire hazard assessment approaches that capture local variability to inform decisions, produce results understood by the public, and are updatable in a timely manner. We modified an existing approach to assess decadal wildfire hazards based primarily on ember dispersal and wildfire proximity, referencing landscape changes from 1984 through 2014. Our modifications created a categorical flammability hazard scheme, rather than dichotomous, and integrated wildfire exposure results across spatial scales. We used remote sensed land cover from four historical decadal points to create flammability hazard and wildfire exposure maps for three arctic communities (Anchorage and Fairbanks, Alaska and Whitehorse, Yukon). Within the Fairbanks study area, we compared 2014 flammability hazard, wildfire exposure, and FlamMap burn probabilities among burned (2014–2023) and unburned areas. Unlike burn probabilities, there were significantly higher in exposure values among burned and unburned locations (Wilcoxon;p < 0.001) and exposure rose as flammability hazard classes increased (Kruskal–Wallis;p < 0.001). Very high flammability hazard class supported 75% of burned areas and burns tended to occur in areas with 60% exposure or greater. Areas with high exposure values are more prone to burn and thus desirable for mitigation actions. By working with wildfire practitioners and communities, we created a tool that rapidly assesses wildfire hazards and is easily modified to help identify and prioritize mitigation activities. 

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5. Compound risk of wildfire and inaccessible shelters is disproportionately impacting disadvantaged communities

   https://doi.org/10.1016/j.pdisas.2024.100358  

   Ermagun, Alireza; Janatabadi, Fatemeh (October 2024, Progress in Disaster Science)

   Shaw, Rajib (Ed.)

   This study proposes measuring access to shelters and wildfire risks in tandem rather than in isolation to prevent wildfires from turning into human disasters. By leveraging a human-centered design approach in California, which has an active wildfire history and experience with some of the deadliest wildfires, three key findings are discerned. First, California experiences undesirable resource allocation where regions with a high risk of wildfire are surrounded by regions with a low level of access to emergency shelters, and regions with a low risk of wildfire are surrounded by regions with a high level of access to emergency shelters. Second, neither access to shelters nor wildfire risk is evenly distributed across space. This uneven distribution, however, discriminates against exurban areas. As one moves away from core cities, higher wildfire risk and comparatively limited access to emergency shelters are noticed, underscoring the heightened susceptibility of exurban areas to wildfires. Third, in contrast with existing research solely focusing on wildfire risk, it is revealed that the elderly, people with disabilities, and Hispanics are at a higher risk of experiencing high wildfire risk and low access to shelters. The findings suggest instilling equity into wildfire preparedness strategies while minimizing the gap in access to resources between disadvantaged and advantaged communities, given the trichotomy of exposure to the hazard (risk of wildfire), proximity to aid (access to shelters), and vulnerability to threat (community characteristics). 

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