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1. Stable ≠ Sustainable: Delta Dynamics Versus the Human Need for Stability

   https://doi.org/10.1029/2021EF002121  

   Passalacqua, P.; Giosan, L.; Goodbred, S.; Overeem, I. (July 2021, Earth's Future)

   Abstract Arising from the non‐uniform dispersal of sediment and water that build deltaic landscapes, morphological change is a fundamental characteristic of river delta behavior. Thus, sustainable deltas require mobility of their channel networks and attendant shifts in landforms. Both behaviors can be misrepresented as degradation, particularly in context of the “stability” that is generally necessitated by human infrastructure and economies. Taking the Ganges‐Brahmaputra‐Meghna Delta as an example, contrary to public perception, this delta system appears to be sustainable at a system scale with high sediment delivery and long‐term net gain in land area. However, many areas of the delta exhibit local dynamics and instability at the scale at which households and communities experience environmental change. Such local landscape “instability” is often cited as evidence that the delta is in decline, whereas much of this change simply reflects the morphodynamics typical of an energetic fluvial‐delta system and do not provide an accurate reflection of overall system health. Here we argue that this disparity between unit‐scale sustainability and local morphodynamic change may be typical of deltaic systems with well‐developed distributary networks and strong spatial gradients in sediment supply and transport energy. Such non‐uniformity and the important connections between network sub‐units (i.e., fluvial, tidal, shelf) suggest that delta risk assessments must integrate local dynamics and sub‐unit connections with unit‐scale behaviors. Structure and dynamics of an integrated deltaic network control the dispersal of water, solids, and solutes to the delta sub‐environment and thus the local to unit‐scale sustainability of the system over time. 

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2. Co-evolution of wetland landscapes, flooding, and human settlement in the Mississippi River Delta Plain

   https://doi.org/10.1007/s11625-016-0374-4  

   Twilley, Robert R.; Bentley, Samuel J.; Chen, Qin; Edmonds, Douglas A.; Hagen, Scott C.; Lam, Nina S.-N.; Willson, Clinton S.; Xu, Kehui; Braud, DeWitt; Hampton Peele, R.; et al (May 2016, Sustainability Science)

   Abstract River deltas all over the world are sinking beneath sea-level rise, causing significant threats to natural and social systems. This is due to the combined effects of anthropogenic changes to sediment supply and river flow, subsidence, and sea-level rise, posing an immediate threat to the 500–1,000 million residents, many in megacities that live on deltaic coasts. The Mississippi River Deltaic Plain (MRDP) provides examples for many of the functions and feedbacks, regarding how human river management has impacted source-sink processes in coastal deltaic basins, resulting in human settlements more at risk to coastal storms. The survival of human settlement on the MRDP is arguably coupled to a shifting mass balance between a deltaic landscape occupied by either land built by the Mississippi River or water occupied by the Gulf of Mexico. We developed an approach to compare 50 % L:W isopleths (L:W is ratio of land to water) across the Atchafalaya and Terrebonne Basins to test landscape behavior over the last six decades to measure delta instability in coastal deltaic basins as a function of reduced sediment supply from river flooding. The Atchafalaya Basin, with continued sediment delivery, compared to Terrebonne Basin, with reduced river inputs, allow us to test assumptions of how coastal deltaic basins respond to river management over the last 75 years by analyzing landward migration rate of 50 % L:W isopleths between 1932 and 2010. The average landward migration for Terrebonne Basin was nearly 17,000 m (17 km) compared to only 22 m in Atchafalaya Basin over the last 78 years (p\0.001), resulting in migration rates of 218 m/year (0.22 km/year) and\0.5 m/year, respectively. In addition, freshwater vegetation expanded in Atchafalaya Basin since 1949 compared to migration of intermediate and brackish marshes landward in the Terrebonne Basin. Changes in salt marsh vegetation patterns were very distinct in these two basins with gain of 25 % in the Terrebonne Basin compared to 90 % decrease in the Atchafalaya Basin since 1949. These shifts in vegetation types as L:W ratio decreases with reduced sediment input and increase in salinity also coincide with an increase in wind fetch in Terrebonne Bay. In the upper Terrebonne Bay, where the largest landward migration of the 50 % L:W ratio isopleth occurred, we estimate that the wave power has increased by 50–100 % from 1932 to 2010, as the bathymetric and topographic conditions changed, and increase in maximum storm-surge height also increased owing to the landward migration of the L:W ratio isopleth. We argue that this balance of land relative to water in this delta provides a much clearer understanding of increased flood risk from tropical cyclones rather than just estimates of areal land loss. We describe how coastal deltaic basins of the MRDP can be used as experimental landscapes to provide insights into how varying degrees of sediment delivery to coastal deltaic floodplains change flooding risks of a sinking delta using landward migrations of 50 % L:W isopleths. The nonlinear response of migrating L:W isopleths as wind fetch increases is a critical feedback effect that should influence human river-management decisions in deltaic coast. Changes in land area alone do not capture how corresponding landscape degradation and increased water area can lead to exponential increase in flood risk to human populations in low-lying coastal regions. Reduced land formation in coastal deltaic basins (measured by changes in the land:water ratio) can contribute significantly to increasing flood risks by removing the negative feedback of wetlands on wave and storm-surge that occur during extreme weather events. Increased flood risks will promote population migration as human risks associated with living in a deltaic landscape increase, as land is submerged and coastal inundation threats rise. These system linkages in dynamic deltaic coasts define a balance of river management and human settlement dependent on a certain level of land area within coastal deltaic basins (L). 

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3. Large‐scale sedimentary shift induced by a mega‐dam in deltaic flats

   https://doi.org/10.1111/sed.13168  

   Wang, Jie; Dai, Zhijun; Fagherazzi, Sergio; Lou, Yaying; Mei, Xuefei; Ma, Binbin (June 2024, Sedimentology)

   ABSTRACT Deltas are crucial for land building and ecological services due to their ability to store mineral sediment, carbon and potential pollutants. A decline in suspended sediment discharge in large rivers caused by the construction of mega‐dams might imperil deltaic flats and wetlands. However, there has not been clear evidence of a sedimentary shift in the downstream tidal flats that feed coastal wetlands and the intertidal zone with sediments. Here, integrated intertidal/subaqueous sediment samples, multi‐year bathymetries, fluvial and deltaic hydrological and sediment transport data in the Nanhui tidal flats and Nanhui Shoal in the Changjiang (Yangtze) Delta, one of the largest mega‐deltas in the world, were analysed to discern how sedimentary environments changed in response to the operations of the Three Gorges Dam. Results reveal that the coarser sediment fractions of surficial sediments in the subaqueous Nanhui Shoal increased between 2004 to 2021, and the overall grain size coarsened from 18.5 to 27.3 μm. Moreover, intertidal sediments in cores coarsened by 25% after the 1990s. During that period, the northern part of the Nanhui Shoal suffered large‐scale erosion, while the southern part accreted in recent decades. Reduced suspended sediment discharge of the Changjiang River combined with local resuspension of fine‐grained sediments are responsible for tidal flat erosion. This study found that the spatial pattern of grain‐size parameters has shifted from crossing the bathymetric isobaths to being parallel to them. Higher tide level and tidal range induced by sea‐level rise, an upstream increase in bed shear stress and larger waves likely further exacerbated erosion and sediment coarsening in deltaic flats. As a result, this sediment‐starved estuary coupled with sea‐level rise and artificial reclamations have enhanced the vulnerability of tidal flats in Changjiang Delta, this research is informative to the sedimentary shift of worldwide mega‐deltas. 

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4. First‐Order River Delta Morphology Is Explained by the Sediment Flux Balance From Rivers, Waves, and Tides

   https://doi.org/10.1029/2022GL100355  

   Broaddus, C. M.; Vulis, L. M.; Nienhuis, J. H.; Tejedor, A.; Brown, J.; Foufoula‐Georgiou, E.; Edmonds, D. A. (November 2022, Geophysical Research Letters)

   Abstract We present a novel quantitative test of a 50‐year‐old hypothesis which asserts that river delta morphology is determined by the balance between river and marine influence. We define three metrics to capture the first‐order morphology of deltas (shoreline roughness, number of distributary channel mouths, and presence/absence of spits), and use a recently developed sediment flux framework to quantify the river‐marine influence. Through analysis of simulated and field deltas we quantitatively demonstrate the relationship between sediment flux balance and delta morphology and show that the flux balance accounts for at least 35% of the variance in the number of distributary channel mouths and 42% of the variance in the shoreline roughness for real‐world and simulated deltas. We identify a tipping point in the flux balance where wave influence halts distributary channel formation and show how this explains morphological transitions in real world deltas. 

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5. Projections of Global Delta Land Loss From Sea‐Level Rise in the 21st Century

   https://doi.org/10.1029/2021GL093368  

   Nienhuis, Jaap H.; van de Wal, Roderik S. W. (July 2021, Geophysical Research Letters)

   Abstract River deltas will likely experience significant land loss because of relative sea‐level rise (RSLR), but predictions have not been tested against observations. Here, we use global data of RSLR and river sediment supply to build a model of delta response to RSLR for 6,402 deltas, representing 86% of global delta land. We validate this model against delta land area change observations from 1985–2015, and project future land area change for IPCC RSLR scenarios. For 2100, we find widely ranging delta scenarios, from +94 ± 125 (2 s.d.) km²yr⁻¹for representative concentration pathway (RCP) 2.6 to −1,026 ± 281 km²yr⁻¹for RCP8.5. River dams, subsidence, and sea‐level rise have had a comparable influence on reduced delta growth over the past decades, but if we follow RCP8.5 to 2100, more than 85% of delta land loss will be caused by climate‐change driven sea‐level rise, resulting in a loss of ∼5% of global delta land. 

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