Explicit representation of finer‐scale processes can affect the sign and magnitude of the precipitation response to climate change between convection‐permitting and convection‐parameterizing models. We compare precipitation across two 15‐year epochs, a historical (HIST) and an end‐of‐21st‐century (EoC85), between a set of dynamically downscaled regional climate simulations at 3.75 km grid spacing (WRF) and bias‐corrected Community Earth System Model (CESM) output used to initialize and force the lateral boundaries of the downscaled simulations. In the historical climate, the downscaled simulations demonstrate less overall error than CESM when compared to observations for most portions of the conterminous United States. Both sets of simulations overestimate the incidence of environments with moderate to high precipitable water while CESM generally simulates rainfall that is too frequent but less intense. Within both sets of simulations, EoC85 rainfall amounts decrease in low‐moisture environments due to reduced rainfall frequency and intensity while rainfall amounts increase in high‐moisture environments as they occur more often. Overall, reductions in rainfall are stronger in WRF than in CESM, particularly during the warm season. This reduced drying in CESM is attributed to relatively higher rainfall frequency in environments with high concentrations of precipitable water and weak vertical motion. As a result, an increase in the occurrence of high moisture environments in EoC85 naturally favors more rainfall in CESM than WRF. Our results present an in‐depth examination of the characteristics of changes in overall accumulated precipitation and highlight an extra dimension of uncertainty when comparing convection‐permitting models against convection‐parameterizing models.
This study explores the impacts of groundwater processes on the simulated land‐surface water balance and hydrometeorology. Observations are compared to multiscale Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) simulations of three summer seasons: 2012, 2013, and 2014. Results show that a grid spacing of 3 km or smaller is necessary to capture small‐scale river and stream networks and associated shallow water tables, which supplies additional root‐zone water double that of simulations with 9‐km and 27‐km grid spacing and is critical to replenishing the depleted vegetation root zones and leads to 150 mm more evapotranspiration. Including groundwater processes in convection‐permitting models is effective to reduce: (1) 2‐m temperature warm biases from 5–6 to 2–3 °C and (2) the low precipitation bias by half. The additional groundwater supply to active soil flux in convection‐permitting simulations with groundwater for June‐August is nearly translated into the same amount of increased precipitation in the domain investigated.
more » « less- Award ID(s):
- 1739705
- NSF-PAR ID:
- 10367083
- Publisher / Repository:
- DOI PREFIX: 10.1029
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- Geophysical Research Letters
- Volume:
- 48
- Issue:
- 5
- ISSN:
- 0094-8276
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
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