The dissemination of synthetic data can be an effective means of making information from sensitive data publicly available with a reduced risk of disclosure. While mechanisms exist for synthesizing data that satisfy formal privacy guarantees, these mechanisms do not typically resemble the models an end-user might use to analyse the data. More recently, the use of methods from the disease mapping literature has been proposed to generate spatially referenced synthetic data with high utility but without formal privacy guarantees. The objective for this paper is to help bridge the gap between the disease mapping and the differential privacy literatures. In particular, we generalize an approach for generating differentially private synthetic data currently used by the US Census Bureau to the case of Poisson-distributed count data in a way that accommodates heterogeneity in population sizes and allows for the infusion of prior information regarding the underlying event rates. Following a pair of small simulation studies, we illustrate the utility of the synthetic data produced by this approach using publicly available, county-level heart disease-related death counts. This study demonstrates the benefits of the proposed approach’s flexibility with respect to heterogeneity in population sizes and event rates while motivating further research to improve its utility.
CDC WONDER is a web-based tool for the dissemination of epidemiologic data collected by the National Vital Statistics System. While CDC WONDER has built-in privacy protections, they do not satisfy formal privacy protections such as differential privacy and thus are susceptible to targeted attacks. Given the importance of making high-quality public health data publicly available while preserving the privacy of the underlying data subjects, we aim to improve the utility of a recently developed approach for generating Poisson-distributed, differentially private synthetic data by using publicly available information to truncate the range of the synthetic data. Specifically, we utilize county-level population information from the US Census Bureau and national death reports produced by the CDC to inform prior distributions on county-level death rates and infer reasonable ranges for Poisson-distributed, county-level death counts. In doing so, the requirements for satisfying differential privacy for a given privacy budget can be reduced by several orders of magnitude, thereby leading to substantial improvements in utility. To illustrate our proposed approach, we consider a dataset comprised of over 26,000 cancer-related deaths from the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania belonging to over 47,000 combinations of cause-of-death and demographic variables such as age, race, sex, and county-of-residence and demonstrate the proposed framework’s ability to preserve features such as geographic, urban/rural, and racial disparities present in the true data.
more » « less- Award ID(s):
- 1943730
- NSF-PAR ID:
- 10368494
- Publisher / Repository:
- Oxford University Press
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- Journal of Survey Statistics and Methodology
- Volume:
- 10
- Issue:
- 3
- ISSN:
- 2325-0984
- Format(s):
- Medium: X Size: p. 596-617
- Size(s):
- ["p. 596-617"]
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
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Abstract This project is funded by the US National Science Foundation (NSF) through their NSF RAPID program under the title “Modeling Corona Spread Using Big Data Analytics.” The project is a joint effort between the Department of Computer & Electrical Engineering and Computer Science at FAU and a research group from LexisNexis Risk Solutions. The novel coronavirus Covid-19 originated in China in early December 2019 and has rapidly spread to many countries around the globe, with the number of confirmed cases increasing every day. Covid-19 is officially a pandemic. It is a novel infection with serious clinical manifestations, including death, and it has reached at least 124 countries and territories. Although the ultimate course and impact of Covid-19 are uncertain, it is not merely possible but likely that the disease will produce enough severe illness to overwhelm the worldwide health care infrastructure. Emerging viral pandemics can place extraordinary and sustained demands on public health and health systems and on providers of essential community services. Modeling the Covid-19 pandemic spread is challenging. But there are data that can be used to project resource demands. Estimates of the reproductive number (R) of SARS-CoV-2 show that at the beginning of the epidemic, each infected person spreads the virus to at least two others, on average (Emanuel et al. in N Engl J Med. 2020, Livingston and Bucher in JAMA 323(14):1335, 2020). A conservatively low estimate is that 5 % of the population could become infected within 3 months. Preliminary data from China and Italy regarding the distribution of case severity and fatality vary widely (Wu and McGoogan in JAMA 323(13):1239–42, 2020). A recent large-scale analysis from China suggests that 80 % of those infected either are asymptomatic or have mild symptoms; a finding that implies that demand for advanced medical services might apply to only 20 % of the total infected. Of patients infected with Covid-19, about 15 % have severe illness and 5 % have critical illness (Emanuel et al. in N Engl J Med. 2020). Overall, mortality ranges from 0.25 % to as high as 3.0 % (Emanuel et al. in N Engl J Med. 2020, Wilson et al. in Emerg Infect Dis 26(6):1339, 2020). Case fatality rates are much higher for vulnerable populations, such as persons over the age of 80 years (> 14 %) and those with coexisting conditions (10 % for those with cardiovascular disease and 7 % for those with diabetes) (Emanuel et al. in N Engl J Med. 2020). Overall, Covid-19 is substantially deadlier than seasonal influenza, which has a mortality of roughly 0.1 %. Public health efforts depend heavily on predicting how diseases such as those caused by Covid-19 spread across the globe. During the early days of a new outbreak, when reliable data are still scarce, researchers turn to mathematical models that can predict where people who could be infected are going and how likely they are to bring the disease with them. These computational methods use known statistical equations that calculate the probability of individuals transmitting the illness. Modern computational power allows these models to quickly incorporate multiple inputs, such as a given disease’s ability to pass from person to person and the movement patterns of potentially infected people traveling by air and land. This process sometimes involves making assumptions about unknown factors, such as an individual’s exact travel pattern. By plugging in different possible versions of each input, however, researchers can update the models as new information becomes available and compare their results to observed patterns for the illness. In this paper we describe the development a model of Corona spread by using innovative big data analytics techniques and tools. We leveraged our experience from research in modeling Ebola spread (Shaw et al. Modeling Ebola Spread and Using HPCC/KEL System. In: Big Data Technologies and Applications 2016 (pp. 347-385). Springer, Cham) to successfully model Corona spread, we will obtain new results, and help in reducing the number of Corona patients. We closely collaborated with LexisNexis, which is a leading US data analytics company and a member of our NSF I/UCRC for Advanced Knowledge Enablement. The lack of a comprehensive view and informative analysis of the status of the pandemic can also cause panic and instability within society. Our work proposes the HPCC Systems Covid-19 tracker, which provides a multi-level view of the pandemic with the informative virus spreading indicators in a timely manner. The system embeds a classical epidemiological model known as SIR and spreading indicators based on causal model. The data solution of the tracker is built on top of the Big Data processing platform HPCC Systems, from ingesting and tracking of various data sources to fast delivery of the data to the public. The HPCC Systems Covid-19 tracker presents the Covid-19 data on a daily, weekly, and cumulative basis up to global-level and down to the county-level. It also provides statistical analysis for each level such as new cases per 100,000 population. The primary analysis such as Contagion Risk and Infection State is based on causal model with a seven-day sliding window. Our work has been released as a publicly available website to the world and attracted a great volume of traffic. The project is open-sourced and available on GitHub. The system was developed on the LexisNexis HPCC Systems, which is briefly described in the paper.more » « less
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Large corporations, government entities and institutions such as hospitals and census bureaus routinely collect our personal and sensitive information for providing services. A key technological challenge is designing algorithms for these services that provide useful results, while simultaneously maintaining the privacy of the individuals whose data are being shared. Differential privacy (DP) is a cryptographically motivated and mathematically rigorous approach for addressing this challenge. Under DP, a randomized algorithm provides privacy guarantees by approximating the desired functionality, leading to a privacy–utility trade-off. Strong (pure DP) privacy guarantees are often costly in terms of utility. Motivated by the need for a more efficient mechanism with better privacy–utility trade-off, we propose Gaussian FM, an improvement to the functional mechanism (FM) that offers higher utility at the expense of a weakened (approximate) DP guarantee. We analytically show that the proposed Gaussian FM algorithm can offer orders of magnitude smaller noise compared to the existing FM algorithms. We further extend our Gaussian FM algorithm to decentralized-data settings by incorporating the CAPE protocol and propose capeFM. Our method can offer the same level of utility as its centralized counterparts for a range of parameter choices. We empirically show that our proposed algorithms outperform existing state-of-the-art approaches on synthetic and real datasets.
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While embracing various machine learning techniques to make effective decisions in the big data era, preserving the privacy of sensitive data poses significant challenges. In this paper, we develop a privacy-preserving distributed machine learning algorithm to address this issue. Given the assumption that each data provider owns a dataset with different sample size, our goal is to learn a common classifier over the union of all the local datasets in a distributed way without leaking any sensitive information of the data samples. Such an algorithm needs to jointly consider efficient distributed learning and effective privacy preservation. In the proposed algorithm, we extend stochastic alternating direction method of multipliers (ADMM) in a distributed setting to do distributed learning. For preserving privacy during the iterative process, we combine differential privacy and stochastic ADMM together. In particular, we propose a novel stochastic ADMM based privacy-preserving distributed machine learning (PS-ADMM) algorithm by perturbing the updating gradients, that provide differential privacy guarantee and have a low computational cost. We theoretically demonstrate the convergence rate and utility bound of our proposed PS-ADMM under strongly convex objective. Through our experiments performed on real-world datasets, we show that PS-ADMM outperforms other differentially private ADMM algorithms under the same differential privacy guarantee.more » « less
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Abstract Accurate, high-resolution tracking of influenza epidemics at the regional level helps public health agencies make informed and proactive decisions, especially in the face of outbreaks. Internet users’ online searches offer great potential for the regional tracking of influenza. However, due to the complex data structure and reduced quality of Internet data at the regional level, few established methods provide satisfactory performance. In this article, we propose a novel method named ARGO2 (2-step Augmented Regression with GOogle data) that efficiently combines publicly available Google search data at different resolutions (national and regional) with traditional influenza surveillance data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) for accurate, real-time regional tracking of influenza. ARGO2 gives very competitive performance across all US regions compared with available Internet-data-based regional influenza tracking methods, and it has achieved 30% error reduction over the best alternative method that we numerically tested for the period of March 2009 to March 2018. ARGO2 is reliable and robust, with the flexibility to incorporate additional information from other sources and resolutions, making it a powerful tool for regional influenza tracking, and potentially for tracking other social, economic, or public health events at the regional or local level.
