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Abstract Volcanic eruptions can have significant climate impacts and serve as useful natural experiments for better understanding the effects of abrupt, externally forced climate change. Here, we investigate the Indian Ocean Dipole's (IOD) response to the largest tropical volcanic eruptions of the last millennium. Post‐eruption composites show a strong negative IOD developing in the eruption year, and a positive IOD the following year. The IOD and El Niño‐Southern Oscillation (ENSO) show a long‐term damped oscillatory response that can take up to 8 years to return to pre‐eruptive baselines. Moreover, the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO) phase at the time of eruption controls the IOD response to intense eruptions, with negative (positive) IPO phasing favoring more negative (positive) IOD values via modulation of the background state of the eastern Indian Ocean thermocline depth. These results have important implications for climate risk in low‐likelihood, high‐impact scenarios, particularly in vulnerable communities unprepared for IOD and ENSO extremes.
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Coastlines at Risk of Hypoxia From Natural Variability in the Northern Indian Ocean
Abstract Coastal hypoxia—harmfully low levels of oxygen—is a mounting problem that jeopardizes coastal ecosystems and economies. The northern Indian Ocean is particularly susceptible due to human‐induced impacts, vast naturally occurring oxygen minimum zones, and strong variability associated with the seasonal monsoons and interannual Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD). We assess hownaturalfactors influence the risk of coastal hypoxia by combining a large set of oxygen measurements with satellite observations to examine how the IOD amplifies or suppresses seasonal hypoxia tied to the Asian Monsoon. We show that on both seasonal and interannual timescales hypoxia is controlled by wind‐ and coastal Kelvin wave‐driven upwelling of oxygen‐poor waters onto the continental shelf and reinforcing biological feedbacks (increased subsurface oxygen demand). Seasonally, the risk of hypoxia is highest in the western Arabian Sea in summer/fall (71% probability of hypoxia). Major year‐to‐year impacts attributed to the IOD occur during positive phases along the eastern Bay of Bengal (EBoB), where the risk of coastal hypoxia increases from moderate to high in summer/fall (21%–46%) and winter/spring (31%–42%), and along the eastern Arabian Sea (i.e., India, Pakistan) where the risk drops from high to moderate in summer/fall (53%–34%). Strong effects are also seen in the EBoB during negative IOD phases, when the risk reduces from moderate to low year‐round (∼25% to ∼5%). This basin‐scale mapping of hypoxic risk is key to aid national and international efforts that monitor, forecast, and mitigate the impacts of hypoxia on coastal ecosystems and ecosystem services.
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- Award ID(s):
- 2042672
- PAR ID:
- 10368665
- Publisher / Repository:
- DOI PREFIX: 10.1029
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- Global Biogeochemical Cycles
- Volume:
- 36
- Issue:
- 6
- ISSN:
- 0886-6236
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
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