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1. Antarctic ecosystem responses following ice‐shelf collapse and iceberg calving: Science review and future research

   https://doi.org/10.1002/wcc.682  

   Ingels, Jeroen ; Aronson, Richard B. ; Smith, Craig R. ; Baco, Amy ; Bik, Holly M. ; Blake, James A. ; Brandt, Angelika ; Cape, Mattias ; Demaster, David ; Dolan, Emily ; et al ( October 2020 , WIREs Climate Change)

   The calving of A‐68, the 5,800‐km², 1‐trillion‐ton iceberg shed from the Larsen C Ice Shelf in July 2017, is one of over 10 significant ice‐shelf loss events in the past few decades resulting from rapid warming around the Antarctic Peninsula. The rapid thinning, retreat, and collapse of ice shelves along the Antarctic Peninsula are harbingers of warming effects around the entire continent. Ice shelves cover more than 1.5 million km²and fringe 75% of Antarctica's coastline, delineating the primary connections between the Antarctic continent, the continental ice, and the Southern Ocean. Changes in Antarctic ice shelves bring dramatic and large‐scale modifications to Southern Ocean ecosystems and continental ice movements, with global‐scale implications. The thinning and rate of future ice‐shelf demise is notoriously unpredictable, but models suggest increased shelf‐melt and calving will become more common. To date, little is known about sub‐ice‐shelf ecosystems, and our understanding of ecosystem change following collapse and calving is predominantly based on responsive science once collapses have occurred. In this review, we outline what is known about (a) ice‐shelf melt, volume loss, retreat, and calving, (b) ice‐shelf‐associated ecosystems through sub‐ice, sediment‐core, and pre‐collapse and post‐collapse studies, and (c) ecological responses in pelagic, sympagic, and benthic ecosystems. We then discuss major knowledge gaps and how science might address these gaps.

   This article is categorized under:

   Climate, Ecology, and Conservation > Modeling Species and Community Interactions

    

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2. Across the Great Divide: The Flow-to-Fracture Transition and the Future of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet

   Alley, R. ( December 2018 , AGU Fall Meeting)

   Physical understanding, modeling, and available data indicate that sufficient warming and retreat of Thwaites Glacier, West Antarctica will remove its ice shelf and generate a calving cliff taller than any extant calving fronts, and that beyond some threshold this will generate faster retreat than any now observed. Persistent ice shelves are restricted to cold environments. Ice-shelf removal has been observed in response to atmospheric warming, with an important role for meltwater wedging open crevasses, and in response to oceanic warming, by mechanisms that are not fully characterized. Some marine-terminating glaciers lacking ice shelves “calve” from cliffs that are grounded at sea level or in relatively shallow water, but more-vigorous flows advance until the ice is close to flotation before calving. For these vigorous flows, a calving event shifts the ice front to a position that is slightly too thick to float, and generates a stress imbalance that causes the ice front to flow faster and thin to flotation, followed by another calving event; the rate of retreat thus is controlled by ice flow even though the retreat is achieved by fracture. Taller cliffs generate higher stresses, however, favoring fracture over flow. Deformational processes are often written as power-law functions of stress, with ice deformation increasing as approximately the third power of stress, but subcritical crack growth as roughly the thirtieth power, accelerating to elastic-wave speeds with full failure. Physical understanding, models based on this understanding, and the limited available data agree that, above some threshold height, brittle processes will become rate-limiting, generating faster calving at a rate that is not well known but could be very fast. Subaerial slumping followed by basal-crevasse growth of the unloaded ice is the most-likely path to this rapid calving. This threshold height is probably not too much greater than the tallest modern cliffs, which are roughly 100 m. 

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3. Stability of Ice Shelves and Ice Cliffs in a Changing Climate

   https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-earth-040522-122817  

   Bassis, Jeremy N. ; Crawford, Anna ; Kachuck, Samuel B. ; Benn, Douglas I. ; Walker, Catherine ; Millstein, Joanna ; Duddu, Ravindra ; Åström, Jan ; Fricker, Helen ; Luckman, Adrian ( May 2024 , Annual Review of Earth and Planetary Sciences)

   The largest uncertainty in future sea-level rise is loss of ice from the Greenland and Antarctic Ice Sheets. Ice shelves, freely floating platforms of ice that fringe the ice sheets, play a crucial role in restraining discharge of grounded ice into the ocean through buttressing. However, since the 1990s, several ice shelves have thinned, retreated, and collapsed. If this pattern continues, it could expose thick cliffs that become structurally unstable and collapse in a process called marine ice cliff instability (MICI). However, the feedbacks between calving, retreat, and other forcings are not well understood. Here we review observed modes of calving from ice shelves and marine-terminating glaciers, and their relation to environmental forces. We show that the primary driver of calving is long-term internal glaciological stress, but as ice shelves thin they may become more vulnerable to environmental forcing. This vulnerability—and the potential for MICI—comes from a combination of the distribution of preexisting flaws within the ice and regions where the stress is large enough to initiate fracture. Although significant progress has been made modeling these processes, theories must now be tested against a wide range of environmental and glaciological conditions in both modern and paleo conditions. ▪ Ice shelves, floating platforms of ice fed by ice sheets, shed mass in a near-instantaneous fashion through iceberg calving. ▪ Most ice shelves exhibit a stable cycle of calving front advance and retreat that is insensitive to small changes in environmental conditions. ▪ Some ice shelves have retreated or collapsed completely, and in the future this could expose thick cliffs that could become structurally unstable called ice cliff instability. ▪ The potential for ice shelf and ice cliff instability is controlled by the presence and evolution of flaws or fractures within the ice. 

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4. Amundsen Sea West Antarctic Ice Sheet History

   https://doi.org/10.14379/iodp.proc.379.2021  

   Gohl, K. ; Wellner, J.S. ; Klaus, A. ( February 2021 , Proceedings of the International Ocean Discovery Program)

   The Amundsen Sea sector of Antarctica has long been considered the most vulnerable part of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS) because of the great water depth at the grounding line, a subglacial bed seafloor deepening toward the interior of the continent, and the absence of substantial ice shelves. Glaciers in this configuration are thought to be susceptible to rapid or runaway retreat. Ice flowing into the Amundsen Sea Embayment is undergoing the most rapid changes of any sector of the Antarctic ice sheets outside the Antarctic Peninsula, including substantial grounding-line retreat over recent decades, as observed from satellite data. Recent models suggest that a threshold leading to the collapse of WAIS in this sector may have been already crossed and that much of the ice sheet could be lost even under relatively moderate greenhouse gas emission scenarios. Drill cores from the Amundsen Sea provide tests of several key questions about controls on ice sheet stability. The cores offer a direct offshore record of glacial history in a sector that is exclusively influenced by ice draining the WAIS, which allows clear comparisons between the WAIS history and low-latitude climate records. Today, relatively warm (modified) Circumpolar Deep Water (CDW) is impinging onto the Amundsen Sea shelf and causing melting under ice shelves and at the grounding line of the WAIS in most places. Reconstructions of past CDW intrusions can assess the ties between warm water upwelling and large-scale changes in past grounding-line positions. Carrying out these reconstructions offshore from the drainage basin that currently has the most substantial negative mass balance of ice anywhere in Antarctica is thus of prime interest to future predictions. The scientific objectives for this expedition are built on hypotheses about WAIS dynamics and related paleoenvironmental and paleoclimatic conditions. The main objectives are: 1. To test the hypothesis that WAIS collapses occurred during the Neogene and Quaternary and, if so, when and under which environmental conditions; 2. To obtain ice-proximal records of ice sheet dynamics in the Amundsen Sea that correlate with global records of ice-volume changes and proxy records for atmospheric and ocean temperatures; 3. To study the stability of a marine-based WAIS margin and how warm deepwater incursions control its position on the shelf; 4. To find evidence for the earliest major grounded WAIS advances onto the middle and outer shelf; 5. To test the hypothesis that the first major WAIS growth was related to the uplift of the Marie Byrd Land dome. International Ocean Discovery Program (IODP) Expedition 379 completed two very successful drill sites on the continental rise of the Amundsen Sea. Site U1532 is located on a large sediment drift, now called the Resolution Drift, and it penetrated to 794 m with 90% recovery. We collected almost-continuous cores from recent age through the Pleistocene and Pliocene and into the upper Miocene. At Site U1533, we drilled 383 m (70% recovery) into the more condensed sequence at the lower flank of the same sediment drift. The cores of both sites contain unique records that will enable study of the cyclicity of ice sheet advance and retreat processes as well as ocean-bottom water circulation and water mass changes. In particular, Site U1532 revealed a sequence of Pliocene sediments with an excellent paleomagnetic record for high-resolution climate change studies of the previously sparsely sampled Pacific sector of the West Antarctic margin. Despite the drilling success at these sites, the overall expedition experienced three unexpected difficulties that affected many of the scientific objectives: 1. The extensive sea ice on the continental shelf prevented us from drilling any of the proposed shelf sites. 2. The drill sites on the continental rise were in the path of numerous icebergs of various sizes that frequently forced us to pause drilling or leave the hole entirely as they approached the ship. The overall downtime caused by approaching icebergs was 50% of our time spent on site. 3. A medical evacuation cut the expedition short by 1 week. Recovery of core on the continental rise at Sites U1532 and U1533 cannot be used to indicate the extent of grounded ice on the shelf or, thus, of its retreat directly. However, the sediments contained in these cores offer a range of clues about past WAIS extent and retreat. At Sites U1532 and U1533, coarse-grained sediments interpreted to be ice-rafted debris (IRD) were identified throughout all recovered time periods. A dominant feature of the cores is recorded by lithofacies cyclicity, which is interpreted to represent relatively warmer periods variably characterized by sediments with higher microfossil abundance, greater bioturbation, and higher IRD concentrations alternating with colder periods characterized by dominantly gray laminated terrigenous muds. Initial comparison of these cycles to published late Quaternary records from the region suggests that the units interpreted to be records of warmer time intervals in the core tie to global interglacial periods and the units interpreted to be deposits of colder periods tie to global glacial periods. Cores from the two drill sites recovered sediments of dominantly terrigenous origin intercalated or mixed with pelagic or hemipelagic deposits. In particular, Site U1533, which is located near a deep-sea channel originating from the continental slope, contains graded silts, sands, and gravels transported downslope from the shelf to the rise. The channel is likely the pathway of these sediments transported by turbidity currents and other gravitational downslope processes. The association of lithologic facies at both sites predominantly reflects the interplay of downslope and contouritic sediment supply with occasional input of more pelagic sediment. Despite the lack of cores from the shelf, our records from the continental rise reveal the timing of glacial advances across the shelf and thus the existence of a continent-wide ice sheet in West Antarctica during longer time periods since at least the late Miocene. Cores from both sites contain abundant coarse-grained sediments and clasts of plutonic origin transported either by downslope processes or by ice rafting. If detailed provenance studies confirm our preliminary assessment that the origin of these samples is from the plutonic bedrock of Marie Byrd Land, their thermochronological record will potentially reveal timing and rates of denudation and erosion linked to crustal uplift. The chronostratigraphy of both sites enables the generation of a seismic sequence stratigraphy for the entire Amundsen Sea continental rise, spanning the area offshore from the Amundsen Sea Embayment westward along the Marie Byrd Land margin to the easternmost Ross Sea through a connecting network of seismic lines. 

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5. Climatic Thresholds for Widespread Ice Shelf Hydrofracturing and Ice Cliff Calving In Antarctica: Implications for Future Sea Level Rise

   DeConto, R. ( December 2018 , AGU Fall Meeting)

   The loss or thinning of buttressing ice shelves and accompanying changes in grounding-zone stress balance are commonly implicated as the primary trigger for grounding-line retreat, such as that observed in Amundsen Sea outlet glaciers today. Ice-shelf thinning is mostly attributed to the presence of warm ocean waters beneath the shelves. However, climate model projections show that summer air temperatures could soon exceed the threshold for widespread meltwater production on ice-shelf surfaces. This has serious implications for their future stability, because they are vulnerable to water-induced flexural stresses and water-aided crevasse penetration, termed ‘hydrofracturing’. Once initiated, the rate of shelf loss through hydrofracturing can far exceed that caused by sub-surface melting, and could result in the complete loss of some buttressing ice shelves, with marine grounding lines suddenly becoming calving ice fronts. In places where those exposed ice fronts are thick (>900m) and crevassed, deviatoric stresses can exceed the strength of the ice and the cliff face will fail mechanically, leading to rapid calving like that seen in analogous settings such as Jakobshavn on Greenland. Here we explore the implications of hydrofacturing and subsequent ice-cliff collapse in a warming climate, by parameterizing these processes in a hybrid ice sheet-shelf model. Model sensitivities to meltwater production and to ice-cliff calving rate (a function of cliff height above the stress balance threshold triggering brittle failure) are calibrated to match modern observations of calving and thinning. We find the potential for major ice-sheet retreat if global mean temperature rises more than ~2ºC above preindustrial. In the model, Antarctic calving rates at thick ice fronts are not allowed to exceed those observed in Greenland today. This may be a conservative assumption, considering the very different spatial scales of Antarctic outlets, such as Thwaites. Nonetheless, simulations following a ‘worst case’ RCP8.5 scenario produce rates of sea-level rise measured in cm per year by the end of this century. Clearly, the potential for brittle processes to deliver ice to the ocean, in addition to viscous and basal processes, needs to be better constrained through more complete, physically based representations of calving. 

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