- Award ID(s):
- 1664013
- NSF-PAR ID:
- 10113500
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- AGU Fall Meeting
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
More Like this
-
The largest uncertainty in future sea-level rise is loss of ice from the Greenland and Antarctic Ice Sheets. Ice shelves, freely floating platforms of ice that fringe the ice sheets, play a crucial role in restraining discharge of grounded ice into the ocean through buttressing. However, since the 1990s, several ice shelves have thinned, retreated, and collapsed. If this pattern continues, it could expose thick cliffs that become structurally unstable and collapse in a process called marine ice cliff instability (MICI). However, the feedbacks between calving, retreat, and other forcings are not well understood. Here we review observed modes of calving from ice shelves and marine-terminating glaciers, and their relation to environmental forces. We show that the primary driver of calving is long-term internal glaciological stress, but as ice shelves thin they may become more vulnerable to environmental forcing. This vulnerability—and the potential for MICI—comes from a combination of the distribution of preexisting flaws within the ice and regions where the stress is large enough to initiate fracture. Although significant progress has been made modeling these processes, theories must now be tested against a wide range of environmental and glaciological conditions in both modern and paleo conditions. ▪ Ice shelves, floating platforms of ice fed by ice sheets, shed mass in a near-instantaneous fashion through iceberg calving. ▪ Most ice shelves exhibit a stable cycle of calving front advance and retreat that is insensitive to small changes in environmental conditions. ▪ Some ice shelves have retreated or collapsed completely, and in the future this could expose thick cliffs that could become structurally unstable called ice cliff instability. ▪ The potential for ice shelf and ice cliff instability is controlled by the presence and evolution of flaws or fractures within the ice.more » « less
-
Abstract The accelerated calving of ice shelves buttressing the Antarctic Ice Sheet may form unstable ice cliffs. The marine ice cliff instability hypothesis posits that cliffs taller than a critical height (~90 m) will undergo structural collapse, initiating runaway retreat in ice‐sheet models. This critical height is based on inferences from preexisting, static ice cliffs. Here we show how the critical height increases with the timescale of ice‐shelf collapse. We model failure mechanisms within an ice cliff deforming after removal of ice‐shelf buttressing stresses. If removal occurs rapidly, the cliff deforms primarily elastically and fails through tensile‐brittle fracture, even at relatively small cliff heights. As the ice‐shelf removal timescale increases, viscous relaxation dominates, and the critical height increases to ~540 m for timescales greater than days. A 90‐m critical height implies ice‐shelf removal in under an hour. Incorporation of ice‐shelf collapse timescales in prognostic ice‐sheet models will mitigate the marine ice cliff instability, implying less ice mass loss.
-
The loss or thinning of buttressing ice shelves and accompanying changes in grounding-zone stress balance are commonly implicated as the primary trigger for grounding-line retreat, such as that observed in Amundsen Sea outlet glaciers today. Ice-shelf thinning is mostly attributed to the presence of warm ocean waters beneath the shelves. However, climate model projections show that summer air temperatures could soon exceed the threshold for widespread meltwater production on ice-shelf surfaces. This has serious implications for their future stability, because they are vulnerable to water-induced flexural stresses and water-aided crevasse penetration, termed ‘hydrofracturing’. Once initiated, the rate of shelf loss through hydrofracturing can far exceed that caused by sub-surface melting, and could result in the complete loss of some buttressing ice shelves, with marine grounding lines suddenly becoming calving ice fronts. In places where those exposed ice fronts are thick (>900m) and crevassed, deviatoric stresses can exceed the strength of the ice and the cliff face will fail mechanically, leading to rapid calving like that seen in analogous settings such as Jakobshavn on Greenland. Here we explore the implications of hydrofacturing and subsequent ice-cliff collapse in a warming climate, by parameterizing these processes in a hybrid ice sheet-shelf model. Model sensitivities to meltwater production and to ice-cliff calving rate (a function of cliff height above the stress balance threshold triggering brittle failure) are calibrated to match modern observations of calving and thinning. We find the potential for major ice-sheet retreat if global mean temperature rises more than ~2ºC above preindustrial. In the model, Antarctic calving rates at thick ice fronts are not allowed to exceed those observed in Greenland today. This may be a conservative assumption, considering the very different spatial scales of Antarctic outlets, such as Thwaites. Nonetheless, simulations following a ‘worst case’ RCP8.5 scenario produce rates of sea-level rise measured in cm per year by the end of this century. Clearly, the potential for brittle processes to deliver ice to the ocean, in addition to viscous and basal processes, needs to be better constrained through more complete, physically based representations of calving.more » « less
-
Abstract Rapid retreat of the Larsen A and B ice shelves has provided important clues about the ice shelf destabilization processes. The Larsen C Ice Shelf, the largest remaining ice shelf on the Antarctic Peninsula, may also be vulnerable to future collapse in a warming climate. Here, we utilize multisource satellite images collected over 1963–2020 to derive multidecadal time series of ice front, flow velocities, and critical rift features over Larsen C, with the aim of understanding the controls on its retreat. We complement these observations with modeling experiments using the Ice‐sheet and Sea‐level System Model to examine how front geometry conditions and mechanical weakening due to rifts affect ice shelf dynamics. Over the past six decades, Larsen C lost over 20% of its area, dominated by rift‐induced tabular iceberg calving. The Bawden Ice Rise and Gipps Ice Rise are critical areas for rift formation, through their impact on the longitudinal deviatoric stress field. Mechanical weakening around Gipps Ice Rise is found to be an important control on localized flow acceleration and the propagation of two rifts that caused a major calving event in 2017. Capturing the time‐varying effects of rifts on ice rigidity in ice shelf models is essential for making realistic predictions of ice shelf flow dynamics and instability. In the context of the Larsen A and Larsen B collapses, we infer a chronology of destabilization processes for embayment‐confined ice shelves, which provides a useful framework for understanding the historical and future destabilization of Antarctic ice shelves.
-
null (Ed.)Abstract Ocean swell interacting with Antarctic ice shelves produces sustained (approximately, 2×106 cycles per year) gravity-elastic perturbations with deformation amplitudes near the ice front as large as tens to hundreds of nanostrain. This process is the most energetically excited during the austral summer, when sea ice-induced swell attenuation is at a minimum. A 2014–2017 deployment of broadband seismographs on the Ross Ice shelf, which included three stations sited, approximately, 2 km from the ice front, reveals prolific swell-associated triggering of discrete near-ice-front (magnitude≲0) seismic subevents, for which we identify three generic types. During some strong swell episodes, subevent timing becomes sufficiently phase-locked with swell excitation, to create prominent harmonic features in spectra calculated across sufficiently lengthy time windows via a Dirac comb effect, for which we articulate a theoretical development for randomized interevent times. These events are observable at near-front stations, have dominant frequency content between 0.5 and 20 Hz, and, in many cases, show highly repetitive waveforms. Matched filtering detection and analysis shows that events occur at a low-background rate during all swell states, but become particularly strongly excited during large amplitude swell at rates of up to many thousands per day. The superimposed elastic energy from swell-triggered sources illuminates the shelf interior as extensional (elastic plate) Lamb waves that are observable more than 100 km from the ice edge. Seismic swarms show threshold excitation and hysteresis with respect to rising and falling swell excitation. This behavior is consistent with repeated seismogenic fracture excitation and growth within a near-ice-front damage zone, encompassing fracture features seen in satellite imagery. A much smaller population of distinctly larger near-front seismic events, previously noted to be weakly associated with extended periods of swell perturbation, likely indicate calving or other larger-scale ice failures near the shelf front.more » « less