Vortex Rossby waves (VRWs) affect tropical cyclones’ (TCs’) motion, structure, and intensity. They propagate within annular waveguides defined by a passband between Ω1D, the Doppler-shifted frequency of a one-dimensional VRW, and zero. Wavenumber-1 VRWs cause TC motion directly and have wider waveguides than wavenumbers ≥ 2. VRWs forced with fixed rotation frequency propagate away from the forcing. Initially outward-propagating waves are Doppler shifted to zero at a critical radius, where they are absorbed. Initially inward-propagating waves are Doppler shifted to Ω1D, reflect from a turning point, propagate outward, and are ultimately absorbed at the critical radius. Between the forcing and the turning radii, the VRWs have standing-wave structure; outward from the forcing they are trailing spirals. They carry angular momentum fluxes that act to accelerate the mean flow at the forcing radius and decelerate it at the critical radius. Mean-flow vorticity monopoles are inconsistent with Stokes’s theorem on a spherical Earth, because a contour enclosing the monopole’s antipode would have nonzero circulation but would enclose zero vorticity. The Rossby waveguide paradigm also fits synoptic-scale Rossby waves in a meridionally sheared zonal flow. These waves propagate within a waveguide confined between a poleward turning latitude and an equatorward critical latitude. Forced waves are comma-shaped gyres that resemble observed frontal cyclones, with trailing filaments equatorward of the forcing latitude and standing waves poleward. Even neutral forced Rossby waves converge westerly momentum at the latitude of forcing.
Recent work found evidence using aquaplanet experiments that tropical cyclone (TC) size on Earth is limited by the Rhines scale, which depends on the planetary vorticity gradient
Tropical cyclones vary in size significantly on Earth, but how large a tropical cyclone could potentially be is still not understood. The variation of the Coriolis parameter with latitude is known to limit the size of turbulent circulations, but its effect on tropical cyclones has not been studied. This study derives a new parameter related to this concept called the “vortex Rhines scale” and shows in a simple model how and why storms will tend to shrink toward this size. These results help explain why tropical cyclone size tends to increase slowly with latitude on Earth and can help us understand what sets the size of tropical cyclones on Earth in general.
- Award ID(s):
- 1945113
- NSF-PAR ID:
- 10369791
- Publisher / Repository:
- American Meteorological Society
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences
- Volume:
- 79
- Issue:
- 8
- ISSN:
- 0022-4928
- Page Range / eLocation ID:
- p. 2109-2124
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
More Like this
-
more » « less
Abstract -
more » « less
Abstract Ten years of airborne Doppler radar observations are used to study convective updrafts' kinematic and reflectivity structures in tropical cyclone (TC) rainbands. An automated algorithm is developed to identify the strongest rainband updrafts across 12 hurricane‐strength TCs. The selected updrafts are then collectively analyzed by their frequency, radius, azimuthal location (relative to the 200–850 hPa environmental wind shear), structural characteristics, and secondary circulation (radial/vertical) flow pattern. Rainband updrafts become deeper and stronger with increasing radius. A wavenumber‐1 asymmetry arises, showing that in the downshear (upshear) quadrants of the TC, updrafts are more (less) frequent and deeper (shallower). In the downshear quadrants, updrafts primarily have in‐up‐out or in‐up‐in secondary circulation patterns. The in‐up‐out circulation is the most frequent pattern and has the deepest updraft and reflectivity tower. Upshear, the updrafts generally have out‐up‐in or in‐up‐in patterns. The radial flow of the updraft circulations largely follows the vortex‐scale radial flow shear‐induced asymmetry, being increased low‐level inflow (outflow) and midlevel outflow (inflow) in the downshear (upshear) quadrants. It is hypothesized that the convective‐scale circulations are significantly influenced by the vortex‐scale radial flow at the updraft base and top altitudes. Other processes of the convective life cycle, such as bottom‐up decay of aging convective updrafts due to increased low‐level downdrafts, can influence the base altitude and, thus, the base radial flow of the updraft circulation. The findings presented in this study support previous literature regarding convective‐scale patterns of organized rainband convection in a mature, sheared TC.
-
more » « less
Abstract The impacts of a tropical cyclone after landfall depend not only on storm intensity but also on the size and structure of the wind field. Hence, a simple predictive model for the wind field after landfall has significant potential value. This work tests existing theory for wind structure and size over the ocean against idealized axisymmetric landfall experiments in which the surface beneath a mature storm is instantaneously dried and roughened individually or simultaneously. Structure theory captures the response of the low-level wind field to different types of idealized landfalls, given the intensity and size response. Storm size, modeled to follow the ratio of simulated time-dependent storm intensity to the Coriolis parameter
, can generally predict the transient response of the storm gale wind radii r 34ktto inland surface forcings, particularly for at least moderate surface roughening regardless of the level of drying. Given knowledge of the intensity evolution, the above results combine to yield a theoretical model that can predict the full tangential wind field response to idealized landfalls.Significance Statement A theoretical model that can predict the time-dependent wind field structure of landfalling tropical cyclones (TCs) with a small number of physical, observable input parameters is essential for mitigating hazards and allocating public resources. This work provides a first-order prediction of storm size and structure after landfall, which can be combined with existing intensity predictions to form a simple model describing the inland wind field evolution. Results show its potential utility for modeling idealized inland TC wind fields.
-
more » « less
The Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO) is a planetary-scale weather system that creates a 30–60 day oscillation in zonal winds and precipitation in the tropics. Its envelope of enhanced rainfall forms over the Indian Ocean and moves slowly eastward before dissipating near the Date Line. The MJO modulates tropical cyclone (TC) genesis, intensity, and landfall in the Indian, Pacific, and Atlantic Oceans. This study examines the mechanisms by which the MJO alters TC genesis. In particular, MJO circulations are partitioned into Kelvin and Rossby waves for each of the developing, mature, and dissipating stages of the convective envelope, and locations of TC genesis are related to these circulations. Throughout the MJO’s convective life cycle, TC genesis is inhibited to the east of the convective envelope, and enhanced just west of the convective envelope. The inhibition of TC genesis to the east of the MJO is largely due to vertical motion associated with the Kelvin wave circulation, as is the enhancement of TC genesis just west of the MJO during the developing stage. During the mature and dissipating stages, the MJO’s Rossby gyres intensify, creating regions of low-level vorticity, favoring TC genesis to its west. Over the 36-year period considered here, the MJO modulation of TC genesis increases due to the intensification of the MJO’s Kelvin wave circulation.
-
more » « less
Abstract The radius of maximum wind (
R max) in a tropical cyclone governs the footprint of hazards, including damaging wind, surge, and rainfall. However,R maxis an inconstant quantity that is difficult to observe directly and is poorly resolved in reanalyses and climate models. In contrast, outer wind radii are much less sensitive to such issues. Here we present a simple empirical model for predictingR maxfrom the radius of 34-kt (1 kt ≈ 0.51 m s−1) wind (R 17.5 ms). The model only requires as input quantities that are routinely estimated operationally: maximum wind speed,R 17.5 ms, and latitude. The form of the empirical model takes advantage of our physical understanding of tropical cyclone radial structure and is trained on the Extended Best Track database from the North Atlantic 2004–20. Results are similar for the TC-OBS database. The physics reduces the relationship between the two radii to a dependence on two physical parameters, while the observational data enables an optimal estimate of the quantitative dependence on those parameters. The model performs substantially better than existing operational methods for estimatingR max. The model reproduces the observed statistical increase inR maxwith latitude and demonstrates that this increase is driven by the increase inR 17.5 mswith latitude. Overall, the model offers a simple and fast first-order prediction ofR maxthat can be used operationally and in risk models.Significance Statement If we can better predict the area of strong winds in a tropical cyclone, we can better prepare for its potential impacts. This work develops a simple model to predict the radius where the strongest winds in a tropical cyclone are located. The model is simple and fast and more accurate than existing models, and it also helps us to understand what causes this radius to vary in time, from storm to storm, and at different latitudes. It can be used in both operational forecasting and models of tropical cyclone hazard risk.
