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1. Potential Strengthening of the Madden–Julian Oscillation Modulation of Tropical Cyclogenesis

   https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos15060655  

   Haertel, Patrick; Liang, Yu (June 2024, Atmosphere)

   A typical Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO) generates a large region of enhanced rainfall over the equatorial Indian Ocean that moves slowly eastward into the western Pacific. Tropical cyclones often form on the poleward edges of the MJO moist-convective envelope, frequently impacting both southeast Asia and northern Australia, and on occasion Eastern Africa. This paper addresses the question of whether these MJO-induced tropical cyclones will become more numerous in the future as the oceans warm. The Lagrangian Atmosphere Model (LAM), which has been carefully tuned to simulate realistic MJO circulations, is used to study the sensitivity of MJO modulation of tropical cyclogenesis (TCG) to global warming. A control simulation for the current climate is compared with a simulation with enhanced radiative forcing consistent with that for the latter part of the 21st century under Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) 585. The LAM control run reproduces the observed MJO modulation of TCG, with about 70 percent more storms forming than monthly climatology predicts within the MJO’s convective envelope. The LAM SSP585 run suggests that TCG enhancement within the convective envelope could reach 170 percent of the background value under a high greenhouse gas emissions scenario, owing to a strengthening of Kelvin and Rossby wave components of the MJO’s circulation. 

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2. Kelvin and Rossby Wave Contributions to the Mechanisms of the Madden–Julian Oscillation

   https://doi.org/10.3390/geosciences12090314  

   Haertel, Patrick (September 2022, Geosciences)

   The Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO) is a large-scale tropical weather system that generates heavy rainfall over the equatorial Indian and western Pacific Oceans on a 40–50 day cycle. Its circulation propagates eastward around the entire world and impacts tropical cyclone genesis, monsoon onset, and mid-latitude flooding. This study examines the mechanism of the MJO in the Lagrangian atmospheric model (LAM), which has been shown to simulate the MJO accurately, and which predicts that MJO circulations will intensify as oceans warm. The LAM MJO’s first baroclinic circulation is projected onto a Kelvin wave leaving a residual that closely resembles a Rossby wave. The contribution of each wave type to moisture and moist enthalpy budgets is assessed. While the vertical advection of moisture by the Kelvin wave accounts for most of the MJO’s precipitation, this wave also exports a large amount of dry static energy, so that in total, it reduces the column integrated moist enthalpy during periods of heavy precipitation. In contrast, the Rossby wave’s horizontal circulation builds up moisture prior to the most intense convection, and its surface wind perturbations enhance evaporation near the center of MJO convection. Surface fluxes associated with the Kelvin wave help to maintain its circulation outside of the MJO’s convectively active region. 

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3. The Equatorial Upper-Tropospheric MJO Signal Is Created by Kelvin Wave Dynamics Interacting with the Mean Flow

   https://doi.org/10.1175/JAS-D-25-0071.1  

   Roundy, Paul E (March 2026, Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences)

   Abstract Fields of equatorial upper-tropospheric circulation data are lag regressed against wavelet-filtered indices of upper-tropospheric zonal wind anomalies over a range of phase speeds at 50-day periods to study the propagation mechanisms of the upper-tropospheric circulation signal of the Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) over the Indian Ocean. Results show that the MJO upper-tropospheric zonal wind is accelerated by the geopotential gradient force in quadrature with the existing wind anomaly, yielding its eastward propagation. This effect is offset by Doppler advection of the MJO wind by the easterly background wind. Divergence of mass by the zonal wind propagates the associated geopotential height anomalies in concert with the winds. Results confirm that advection of background wind by the MJO wind amplifies MJO wind anomalies in phase with those anomalies where the background wind is zonally confluent and breaks it down in regions of diffluent background wind. Coincidence of the mass source driven by moist convection and zonally diffluent zonal wind anomalies with falling geopotential height relative to the regions east and west is consistent with planetary-scale Kelvin wave zonal wind signals providing favorable conditions for convection. Circulation data at 100 hPa confirm approximately dry Kelvin wave dynamics driving MJO-associated equatorial circulations eastward. 

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4. Propagation Speed Climatology of Pacific Equatorial Kelvin Waves in Different Background Conditions

   https://doi.org/10.3390/cli14050092  

   De_Castro, Crizzia Mielle; Roundy, Paul E (May 2026, Climate)

   Atmospheric equatorial Kelvin waves—convective disturbances that manipulate tropical wind and rainfall patterns—can propagate eastward at speeds ranging from nearly stationary to 30 m/s, with variability determined by moist processes and advection by the background wind. Current studies on Kelvin waves lack a comprehensive climatology that explains how their structure and propagation speeds change in different background states. Thus, this work builds a variable regression model that uses ERA5 reanalysis data to reconstruct Kelvin waves during different background wind shear conditions and phases of the Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO) and the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) over the Pacific. Overall, Kelvin waves tend to speed up during background conditions that generate upper-tropospheric westerlies and slow down during upper-tropospheric easterlies. East Pacific Kelvin waves are faster than West Pacific Kelvin waves because of climatological westerly shear in the former and easterly shear in the latter. However, strong westerly shear over the East Pacific allows extratropical Rossby waves to impede on the Kelvin wave, while strong easterly shear over the West Pacific distorts classical Kelvin wave structure. The results provide references for weather prediction models to accurately resolve the interaction between Kelvin waves and background circulation. 

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5. Zonal Propagation of the Indian Basin MJO Across Varying Background Wind and Seasonal Background Wind States

   https://doi.org/10.3390/cli14030074  

   Roundy, Paul E (March 2026, Climate)

   The Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO) varies seasonally. Both moist and dry dynamical processes would contribute to this seasonality. Previous results have suggested strong dependence of MJO phase speed on planetary-scale upper tropospheric Kelvin waves interacting with the mean flow. Composites and phase speed spectra assess the association between the Indian Basin MJO circulation and convection with variations in equatorial upper tropospheric background wind patterns, including seasonal variability. Results show that the fastest eastward propagation over the Indian Ocean (>10 ms−1) tends to occur during northern spring when background upper tropospheric easterlies are weakest. Northern winter signals typically advance eastward between 4 and 10 ms−1. Strong easterly background wind conditions during northern summer usually prevent propagation eastward along the equator from the Western Indian Ocean. Results also show relative amplitude variations between the MJO’s upper and lower tropospheric zonal wind signals, with the upper tropospheric circulation signals being disproportionately stronger than the lower tropospheric ones over the Western Hemisphere to East Africa. The upper tropospheric easterly wind anomalies grow over the Western Indian Ocean first, as specific humidity increases in lower tropospheric easterly wind to the east. Then, lower tropospheric westerly wind emerges west of the emerging convection, suggesting that lower tropospheric wind change depends more directly on moist processes than the upper tropospheric wind. 

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