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Abstract From California to British Columbia, the Pacific Northwest coast bears an omnipresent earthquake and tsunami hazard from the Cascadia subduction zone. Multiple lines of evidence suggests that magnitude eight and greater megathrust earthquakes have occurred ‐ the most recent being 321 years ago (i.e., 1700 A.D.). Outstanding questions for the next great megathrust event include where it will initiate, what conditions are favorable for rupture to span the convergent margin, and how much slip may be expected. We develop the first 3‐D fully dynamic rupture simulations for the Cascadia subduction zone that are driven by fault stress, strength and friction to address these questions. The initial dynamic stress drop distribution in our simulations is constrained by geodetic coupling models, with segment locations taken from geologic analyses. We document the sensitivity of nucleation location and stress drop to the final seismic moment and coseismic subsidence amplitudes. We find that the final earthquake size strongly depends on the amount of slip deficit in the central Cascadia region, which is inferred to be creeping interseismically, for a given initiation location in southern or northern Cascadia. Several simulations are also presented here that can closely approximate recorded coastal subsidence from the 1700 A.D. event without invoking localized high‐stress asperities along the down‐dip locked region of the megathrust. These results can be used to inform earthquake and tsunami hazards for not only Cascadia, but other subduction zones that have limited seismic observations but a wealth of geodetic inference.
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How the Transition Region Along the Cascadia Megathrust Influences Coseismic Behavior: Insights From 2‐D Dynamic Rupture Simulations
Abstract There is a strong need to model potential rupture behaviors for the next Cascadia megathrust earthquake. However, there exists significant uncertainty regarding the extent of downdip rupture and rupture speed. To address this problem, we study how the transition region (i.e., the gap), which separates the locked from slow‐slip regions, influences coseismic rupture propagation using 2‐D dynamic rupture simulations governed by a slip‐weakening friction law. We show that rupture propagation through the gap is strongly controlled by the amount of accumulated tectonic initial shear stress and gap friction level. A large amplitude negative dynamic stress drop is needed to arrest downdip rupture. We also observe downdip supershear rupture when the gradient in effective normal stress from the locked to slow‐slip regions is dramatic. Our results justify kinematic rupture models that extend below the gap and suggests the possibility of high‐frequency energy radiation during the next Cascadia megathrust earthquake.
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- Award ID(s):
- 1663769
- PAR ID:
- 10371665
- Publisher / Repository:
- DOI PREFIX: 10.1029
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- Geophysical Research Letters
- Volume:
- 46
- Issue:
- 4
- ISSN:
- 0094-8276
- Page Range / eLocation ID:
- p. 1973-1983
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
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