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Abstract—In this study, we model geodetic strain accumulation along the Cascadia subduction zone between 2007.0 and 2017.632 using position time series from 352 continuous GPS stations. First, we use the secular linear motion to determine interseismic locking along the megathrust. We determine two end member models, assuming that the megathrust is either a priori locked or creeping, which differ essentially along the trench where the inversion is poorly constrained by the data. In either case, significant locking of the megathrust updip of the coastline is needed. The downdip limit of the locked portion lies * 20–80 km updip from the coast assuming a locked a priori, but very close to the coast for a creeping a priori. Second, we use a variational Bayesian Independent Component Analysis (vbICA) decomposition to model geodetic strain time variations, an approach which is effective to separate the geodetic strain signal due to non-tectonic and tectonic sources. The Slow Slip Events (SSEs) kinematics is retrieved by linearly inverting for slip on the megathrust the Independent Components related to these transient phenomena. The procedure allows the detection and modelling of 64 SSEs which spatially and temporally match with the tremors activity. SEEs and tremors occur well inland from the coastline and follow closely the estimated location of the mantle wedge corner. The transition zone, between the locked portion of the megathrust and the zone of tremors, is creeping rather steadily at the long-term slip rate and probably buffers the effect of SSEs on the megathrust seismogenic portion.
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Locating Boundaries Between Locked and Creeping Regions at Nankai and Cascadia Subduction Zones
Abstract Interseismic coupling maps and, especially, estimates of the location of the fully coupled (locked) zone relative to the trench, coastline, and slow slip events are crucial for determining megathrust earthquake hazard at subduction zones. We present an interseismic coupling inversion that estimates the locations of the upper and lower boundaries of the locked zone, the lower boundary of the deep transition zone, and downdip gradient of creep rate in the transition from locked to freely creeping in the downdip transition zone. We show that the locked zone at Cascadia is west of the coastline and 10 km updip of the slow slip zone along much of the margin, widest (25–125 km, extending to ∼19 km depth) in northern Cascadia, narrowest (0–70 km) in central Cascadia, with moment accumulation rate equivalent to a Mw8.71 and Mw8.85 earthquake for 300‐ and 500‐year earthquake cycles. We find a steep gradient in creep immediately below the locked zone, indicative of propagating creep, along the entire margin. At Nankai, we find three distinct zones of locking (offshore Shikoku, offshore southeast Kii peninsula, and offshore Shima peninsula) with a total moment accumulation rate equivalent to a Mw8.70 earthquake for a 150‐year earthquake cycle. The bottom of the locked zone is nearly under the coastline for all three locked regions at Nankai and is positioned 0–5 km updip of the slow slip zone. In contrast with Cascadia, creep rate gradients below the locked zone at Nankai are generally gradual, consistent with stationary locking.
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- PAR ID:
- 10578391
- Publisher / Repository:
- Wiley
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth
- Volume:
- 129
- Issue:
- 10
- ISSN:
- 2169-9313
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
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Accepted Manuscript1.0
- Journal Article:
- https://doi.org/10.1029/2024JB029346
