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Abstract Electron diffusion by whistler‐mode chorus waves is one of the key processes controlling the dynamics of relativistic electron fluxes in the Earth's radiation belts. It is responsible for the acceleration of sub‐relativistic electrons injected from the plasma sheet to relativistic energies as well as for their precipitation and loss into the atmosphere. Based on analytical estimates of chorus wave‐driven quasi‐linear electron energy and pitch‐angle diffusion rates, we provide analytical steady‐state solutions to the corresponding Fokker‐Planck equation for the relativistic electron distribution and flux. The impact on these steady‐state solutions of additional electromagnetic ion cyclotron waves, and of ultralow frequency waves are examined. Such steady‐state solutions correspond to hard energy spectra at 1–4 MeV, dangerous for satellite electronics, and represent attractors for the system dynamics in the presence of sufficiently strong driving by continuous injections of 10–300 keV electrons. Therefore, these analytical steady‐state solutions provide a simple means for estimating the most extreme electron energy spectra potentially encountered in the outer radiation belt, despite the great variability of injections and plasma conditions. These analytical steady‐state solutions are compared with numerical simulations based on the full Fokker‐Planck equation and with relativistic electron flux spectra measured by satellites during one extreme event and three strong events of high time‐integrated geomagnetic activity, demonstrating a good agreement.
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A Climatology of Long‐Duration High 2‐MeV Electron Flux Periods in the Outer Radiation Belt
Abstract Since the advent of the Space Age, the importance of understanding and forecasting relativistic electron fluxes in the Earth’s radiation belts has been steadily growing due to the threat that such particles pose to satellite electronics. Here, we provide a model of long‐duration periods of high time‐integrated 2‐MeV electron flux deep inside the outer radiation belt, based on the significant correlation obtained in 2001–2017 between time‐integrated electron flux measured by satellites and a measure of the preceding time‐integrated homogenizedaaHgeomagnetic index. We show that this correlation is likely due to a stronger cumulative chorus wave‐driven acceleration of relativistic electrons and a stronger cumulative inward radial diffusion of such electrons during periods of higher time‐integrated geomagnetic activity. Return levels of 2‐MeV electron flux are provided based on Extreme Value analysis of time‐integrated geomagnetic activity over 1868–2017, in rough agreement with estimates based on 20‐year data sets of measured flux. A high correlation is also found between our measure of time‐integrated geomagnetic activity averaged over each solar cycle and averaged sunspot numbers, potentially paving the way for forecasts of time‐integrated relativistic electron flux during future solar cycles based on predictions of solar activity.
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- Award ID(s):
- 1914670
- PAR ID:
- 10372442
- Publisher / Repository:
- DOI PREFIX: 10.1029
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- Journal of Geophysical Research: Space Physics
- Volume:
- 127
- Issue:
- 8
- ISSN:
- 2169-9380
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
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