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Abstract Electric vehicles (EVs) constitute just a fraction of the current U.S. transportation fleet; however, EV market share is surging. EV adoption reduces on-road transportation greenhouse gas emissions by decoupling transportation services from petroleum, but impacts on air quality and public health depend on the nature and location of vehicle usage and electricity generation. Here, we use a regulatory-grade chemical transport model and a vehicle-to-electricity generation unit electricity assignment algorithm to characterize neighborhood-scale (∼1 km) air quality and public health benefits and tradeoffs associated with a multi-modal EV transition. We focus on a Chicago-centric regional domain wherein 30% of the on-road transportation fleet is instantaneously electrified and changes in on-road, refueling, and power plant emissions are considered. We find decreases in annual population-weighted domain mean NO2(−11.83%) and PM2.5(−2.46%) with concentration reductions of up to −5.1 ppb and −0.98µg m−3in urban cores. Conversely, annual population-weighted domain mean maximum daily 8 h average ozone (MDA8O3) concentrations increase +0.64%, with notable intra-urban changes of up to +2.3 ppb. Despite mixed pollutant concentration outcomes, we find overall positive public health outcomes, largely driven by NO2concentration reductions that result in outsized mortality rate reductions for people of color, particularly for the Black populations within our domain.
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Long-term trends of impacts of global gasoline and diesel emissions on ambient PM 2.5 and O 3 pollution and the related health burden for 2000–2015
Abstract Global economic development and urbanization during the past two decades have driven the increases in demand of personal and commercial vehicle fleets, especially in developing countries, which has likely resulted in changes in year-to-year vehicle tailpipe emissions associated with aerosols and trace gases. However, long-term trends of impacts of global gasoline and diesel emissions on air quality and human health are not clear. In this study, we employ the Community Earth System Model in conjunction with the newly developed Community Emissions Data System as anthropogenic emission inventory to quantify the long-term trends of impacts of global gasoline and diesel emissions on ambient air quality and human health for the period of 2000–2015. Global gasoline and diesel emissions contributed to regional increases in annual mean surface PM2.5(particulate matter with aerodynamic diameters ⩽2.5μm) concentrations by up to 17.5 and 13.7µg m−3, and surface ozone (O3) concentrations by up to 7.1 and 7.2 ppbv, respectively, for 2000–2015. However, we also found substantial declines of surface PM2.5and O3concentrations over Europe, the US, Canada, and China for the same period, which suggested the co-benefits of air quality and human health from improving gasoline and diesel fuel quality and tightening vehicle emissions standards. Globally, we estimate the mean annual total PM2.5- and O3-induced premature deaths are 139 700–170 700 for gasoline and 205 200–309 300 for diesel, with the corresponding years of life lost of 2.74–3.47 and 4.56–6.52 million years, respectively. Diesel and gasoline emissions create health-effect disparities between the developed and developing countries, which are likely to aggravate afterwards.
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- Award ID(s):
- 2111428
- PAR ID:
- 10373310
- Publisher / Repository:
- IOP Publishing
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- Environmental Research Letters
- Volume:
- 17
- Issue:
- 10
- ISSN:
- 1748-9326
- Page Range / eLocation ID:
- Article No. 104042
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
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