An official website of the United States government
Abstract Vehicle electrification is a common climate change mitigation strategy, with policymakers invoking co‐beneficial reductions in carbon dioxide (CO2) and air pollutant emissions. However, while previous studies of U.S. electric vehicle (EV) adoption consistently predict CO2mitigation benefits, air quality outcomes are equivocal and depend on policies assessed and experimental parameters. We analyze climate and health co‐benefits and trade‐offs of six U.S. EV adoption scenarios: 25% or 75% replacement of conventional internal combustion engine vehicles, each under three different EV‐charging energy generation scenarios. We transfer emissions from tailpipe to power generation plant, simulate interactions of atmospheric chemistry and meteorology using the GFDL‐AM4 chemistry climate model, and assess health consequences and uncertainties using the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency Benefits Mapping Analysis Program Community Edition (BenMAP‐CE). We find that 25% U.S. EV adoption, with added energy demand sourced from the present‐day electric grid, annually results in a ~242 M ton reduction in CO2emissions, 437 deaths avoided due to PM2.5reductions (95% CI: 295, 578), and 98 deaths avoided due to lesser ozone formation (95% CI: 33, 162). Despite some regions experiencing adverse health outcomes, ~$16.8B in damages avoided are predicted. Peak CO2reductions and health benefits occur with 75% EV adoption and increased emission‐free energy sources (~$70B in damages avoided). When charging‐electricity from aggressive EV adoption is combustion‐only, adverse health outcomes increase substantially, highlighting the importance of low‐to‐zero emission power generation for greater realization of health co‐benefits. Our results provide a more nuanced understanding of the transportation sector's climate change mitigation‐health impact relationship.
more »
« less
Neighborhood-scale air quality, public health, and equity implications of multi-modal vehicle electrification
Abstract Electric vehicles (EVs) constitute just a fraction of the current U.S. transportation fleet; however, EV market share is surging. EV adoption reduces on-road transportation greenhouse gas emissions by decoupling transportation services from petroleum, but impacts on air quality and public health depend on the nature and location of vehicle usage and electricity generation. Here, we use a regulatory-grade chemical transport model and a vehicle-to-electricity generation unit electricity assignment algorithm to characterize neighborhood-scale (∼1 km) air quality and public health benefits and tradeoffs associated with a multi-modal EV transition. We focus on a Chicago-centric regional domain wherein 30% of the on-road transportation fleet is instantaneously electrified and changes in on-road, refueling, and power plant emissions are considered. We find decreases in annual population-weighted domain mean NO2(−11.83%) and PM2.5(−2.46%) with concentration reductions of up to −5.1 ppb and −0.98µg m−3in urban cores. Conversely, annual population-weighted domain mean maximum daily 8 h average ozone (MDA8O3) concentrations increase +0.64%, with notable intra-urban changes of up to +2.3 ppb. Despite mixed pollutant concentration outcomes, we find overall positive public health outcomes, largely driven by NO2concentration reductions that result in outsized mortality rate reductions for people of color, particularly for the Black populations within our domain.
more »
« less
- Award ID(s):
- 2239834
- PAR ID:
- 10462418
- Publisher / Repository:
- IOP Publishing
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- Environmental Research: Infrastructure and Sustainability
- Volume:
- 3
- Issue:
- 3
- ISSN:
- 2634-4505
- Page Range / eLocation ID:
- Article No. 035007
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
More Like this
-
-
Abstract To demonstrate how a mega city can lead in decarbonizing beyond legal mandates, the city of Los Angeles (LA) developed science-based, feasible pathways towards utilizing 100% renewable energy for its municipally-owned electric utility. Aside from decarbonization, renewable energy adoption can lead to co-benefits such as improving urban air quality from reductions in combustion-related emissions of oxides of nitrogen (NOx), primary fine particulate matter (PM2.5) and others. Herein, we quantify changes to air pollutant concentrations and public health from scenarios of 100% renewable electricity adoption in LA in 2045, alongside aggressive electrification of end-use sectors. Our analysis suggests that while ensuring reliable electricity supply, reductions in emissions of air pollutants associated with the 100% renewable electricity scenarios can lead to 8% citywide reductions of PM2.5concentration while increasing ozone concentration by 5% relative to a 2012 baseline year, given identical meteorology conditions. The combination of these concentration changes could result in net monetized public health benefits (driven by avoided deaths) of up to $1.4 billion in year 2045 in LA, results potentially replicable for other city-scale decarbonization scenarios.more » « less
-
Abstract Electric vehicle (EV) adoption promises potential air pollutant and greenhouse gas (GHG) reduction co‐benefits. As such, China has aggressively incentivized EV adoption, however much remains unknown with regard to EVs’ mitigation potential, including optimal vehicle type prioritization, power generation contingencies, effects of Clean Air regulations, and the ability of EVs to reduce acute impacts of extreme air quality events. Here, we present a suite of scenarios with a chemistry transport model that assess the potential co‐benefits of EVs during an extreme winter air quality event. We find that regardless of power generation source, heavy‐duty vehicle (HDV) electrification consistently improves air quality in terms of NO2and fine particulate matter (PM2.5), potentially avoiding 562 deaths due to acute pollutant exposure during the infamous January 2013 pollution episode (∼1% of total premature mortality). However, HDV electrification does not reduce GHG emissions without enhanced emission‐free electricity generation. In contrast, due to differing emission profiles, light‐duty vehicle (LDV) electrification in China consistently reduces GHG emissions (∼2 Mt CO2), but results in fewer air quality and human health improvements (145 avoided deaths). The calculated economic impacts for human health endpoints and CO2reductions for LDV electrification are nearly double those of HDV electrification in present‐day (155M vs. 87M US$), but are within ∼25% when enhanced emission‐free generation is used to power them. Overall, we find only a modest benefit for EVs to ameliorate severe wintertime pollution events, and that continued emission reductions in the power generation sector will have the greatest human health and economic benefits.more » « less
-
While extant research explores the impact of Electric Vehicle (EV) incentives on EV market shares, less is known about how such policies and other socioeconomic factors interact that ultimately affect the goal of transportation emission reductions. The study summarized herein employed a sample of 510 state-year CO 2 emissions data sets in the transportation sector spanning a decade (2010-2019) in a multiple linear regression model. Going beyond earlier studies, we find that, while a higher number of EV incentives would significantly contribute to transportation emission reductions, this effect could be dampened by population growth. In addition, we find that, while higher electricity prices may weaken the effectiveness of EV incentives, a high count of EV incentives is more effective in reducing CO 2 emissions than a low count of EV incentives when the electricity price is low. This finding implies that having multiple EV incentives can be effective in reducing transportation carbon emissions even in the face of rising prices of electricity. The study also examines the effectiveness of promoting the density of charging stations and alternative fuel incentives in advancing carbon emission reductions.more » « less
-
South Florida is famous for its diverse cultural scene and year-round sunshine. This success, however, has not been without its consequences. While the region enjoys economic prosperity, the hidden cost of deteriorating air quality and adverse health effects from vehicle emissions necessitates urgent attention. Electric vehicles (EVs) have emerged as a potential solution, promising reduced emissions, and increased energy efficiency. However, the intricate life cycle emissions associated with EV energy production raise questions about their net benefits. Using predictive modeling and historical data, the study forecasts emissions trajectories and assesses their health implications. Results indicate a substantial reduction in pollutants like PM2.5 and NOx by 2050, particularly in counties with higher vehicle miles traveled (VMT). However, challenges remain, such as Broward County’s heightened dependence on polluting electricity sources for EV charging, leading to increased SO2 emissions and public health costs. The analysis underscores the importance of transitioning to cleaner energy sources, highlighting the potential benefits of renewable resources in reducing emissions and improving public health outcomes. By incorporating comprehensive data and predictive models, this study provides valuable insights for policymakers and communities, advocating for a concerted effort towards sustainable transportation solutions. Ultimately, the findings emphasize the necessity of proactive measures to mitigate the adverse effects of vehicle emissions and foster a healthier, more sustainable future for South Florida.more » « less
