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Title: Heat flux assumptions contribute to overestimation of wildfire smoke injection into the free troposphere
Abstract

Injections of wildfire smoke plumes into the free troposphere impact air quality, yet model forecasts of injections are poor. Here, we use aircraft observations obtained during the 2019 western US wildfires (FIREX-AQ) to evaluate a commonly used smoke plume rise parameterization in two atmospheric chemistry-transport models (WRF-Chem and HRRR-Smoke). Observations show that smoke injections into the free troposphere occur in 35% of plumes, whereas the models forecast 59–95% indicating false injections in the simulations. False injections were associated with both models overestimating fire heat flux and terrain height, and with WRF-Chem underestimating planetary boundary layer height. We estimate that the radiant fraction of heat flux is 0.5 to 25 times larger in models than in observations, depending on fuel type. Model performance was substantially improved by using observed heat flux and boundary layer heights, confirming that models need accurate heat fluxes and boundary layer heights to correctly forecast plume injections.

 
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Award ID(s):
2013461
NSF-PAR ID:
10373717
Author(s) / Creator(s):
; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ;
Publisher / Repository:
Nature Publishing Group
Date Published:
Journal Name:
Communications Earth & Environment
Volume:
3
Issue:
1
ISSN:
2662-4435
Format(s):
Medium: X
Sponsoring Org:
National Science Foundation
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