This paper examines the accuracy of Weather Research and Forecasting model coupled with Chemistry (WRF‐Chem) generated 72 hr fine particulate matter (PM2.5) forecasts in Delhi during the crop residue burning season of October‐November 2017 with respect to assimilation of the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) aerosol optical depth (AOD) retrievals, persistent fire emission assumption, and aerosol‐radiation interactions. The assimilation significantly pushes the model AOD and PM2.5toward the observations with the largest changes below 5 km altitude in the fire source regions (northeastern Pakistan, Punjab, and Haryana) as well as the receptor New Delhi. WRF‐Chem forecast with MODIS AOD assimilation, aerosol‐radiation feedback turned on, and real‐time fire emissions reduce the mean bias by 88–195 μg/m3(70–86%) with the largest improvement during the peak air pollution episode of 6–13 November 2017. Aerosol‐radiation feedback contributes ~21%, ~25%, and ~24% to reduction in mean bias of the first, second, and third days of PM2.5forecast. Persistence fire emission assumption is found to work really well, as the accuracy of PM2.5forecasts driven by persistent fire emissions was only 6% lower compared to those driven by real fire emissions. Aerosol‐radiation feedback extends the benefits of assimilating satellite AOD beyond PM2.5forecasts to surface temperature forecast with a reduction in the mean bias of 0.9–1.5°C (17–30%). These results demonstrate that air quality forecasting can benefit substantially from satellite AOD observations particularly in developing countries that lack resources to rapidly build dense air quality monitoring networks.
This study evaluates the impact of assimilating moderate resolution imaging spectroradiometer (MODIS) aerosol optical depth (AOD) data using different data assimilation (DA) methods on dust analyses and forecasts over North Africa and tropical North Atlantic. To do so, seven experiments are conducted using the Weather Research and Forecasting dust model and the Gridpoint Statistical Interpolation analysis system. Six of these experiments differ in whether or not AOD observations are assimilated and the DA method used, the latter of which includes the three‐dimensional variational (3D‐Var), ensemble square root filter (EnSRF), and hybrid methods. The seventh experiment, which allows us to assess the impact of assimilating deep blue AOD data, assimilates only dark target AOD data using the hybrid method. The assimilation of MODIS AOD data clearly improves AOD analyses and forecasts up to 48 hr in length. Results also show that assimilating deep blue data has a primarily positive effect on AOD analyses and forecasts over and downstream of the major North African source regions. Without assimilating deep blue data (assimilating dark target only), AOD assimilation only improves AOD forecasts for up to 30 hr. Of the three DA methods examined, the hybrid and EnSRF methods produce better AOD analyses and forecasts than the 3D‐Var method does. Despite the clear benefit of AOD assimilation for AOD analyses and forecasts, the lack of information regarding the vertical distribution of aerosols in AOD data means that AOD assimilation has very little positive effect on analyzed or forecasted vertical profiles of backscatter.
more » « less- NSF-PAR ID:
- 10374550
- Publisher / Repository:
- DOI PREFIX: 10.1029
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems
- Volume:
- 12
- Issue:
- 4
- ISSN:
- 1942-2466
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
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