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Abstract The Starlink satellites launched on 3 February 2022 were lost before they fully arrived in their designated orbits. The loss was attributed to two moderate geomagnetic storms that occurred consecutively on 3–4 February. We investigate the thermospheric neutral mass density variation during these storms with the Multiscale Atmosphere‐Geospace Environment (MAGE) model, a first‐principles, fully coupled geospace model. Simulated neutral density enhancements are validated by Swarm satellite measurements at the altitude of 400–500 km. Comparison with standalone TIEGCM and empirical NRLMSIS 2.0 and DTM‐2013 models suggests better performance by MAGE in predicting the maximum density enhancement and resolving the gradual recovery process. Along the Starlink satellite orbit in the middle thermosphere (∼200 km altitude), MAGE predicts up to 150% density enhancement near the second storm peak while standalone TIEGCM, NRLMSIS 2.0, and DTM‐2013 suggest only ∼50% increase. MAGE also suggests altitudinal, longitudinal, and latitudinal variability of storm‐time percentage density enhancement due to height dependent Joule heating deposition per unit mass, thermospheric circulation changes, and traveling atmospheric disturbances. This study demonstrates that a moderate storm can cause substantial density enhancement in the middle thermosphere. Thermospheric mass density strongly depends on the strength, timing, and location of high‐latitude energy input, which cannot be fully reproduced with empirical models. A physics‐based, fully coupled geospace model that can accurately resolve the high‐latitude energy input and its variability is critical to modeling the dynamic response of thermospheric neutral density during storm time.
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NRLMSIS 2.0: A Whole‐Atmosphere Empirical Model of Temperature and Neutral Species Densities
Abstract NRLMSIS® 2.0 is an empirical atmospheric model that extends from the ground to the exobase and describes the average observed behavior of temperature, eight species densities, and mass density via a parametric analytic formulation. The model inputs are location, day of year, time of day, solar activity, and geomagnetic activity. NRLMSIS 2.0 is a major, reformulated upgrade of the previous version, NRLMSISE‐00. The model now couples thermospheric species densities to the entire column, via an effective mass profile that transitions each species from the fully mixed region below ~70 km altitude to the diffusively separated region above ~200 km. Other changes include the extension of atomic oxygen down to 50 km and the use of geopotential height as the internal vertical coordinate. We assimilated extensive new lower and middle atmosphere temperature, O, and H data, along with global average thermospheric mass density derived from satellite orbits, and we validated the model against independent samples of these data. In the mesosphere and below, residual biases and standard deviations are considerably lower than NRLMSISE‐00. The new model is warmer in the upper troposphere and cooler in the stratosphere and mesosphere. In the thermosphere, N2and O densities are lower in NRLMSIS 2.0; otherwise, the NRLMSISE‐00 thermosphere is largely retained. Future advances in thermospheric specification will likely require new in situ mass spectrometer measurements, new techniques for species density measurement between 100 and 200 km, and the reconciliation of systematic biases among thermospheric temperature and composition data sets, including biases attributable to long‐term changes.
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- Award ID(s):
- 1829138
- PAR ID:
- 10374826
- Publisher / Repository:
- DOI PREFIX: 10.1029
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- Earth and Space Science
- Volume:
- 8
- Issue:
- 3
- ISSN:
- 2333-5084
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
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