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Abstract Melt rates of West Antarctic ice shelves in the Amundsen Sea track large decadal variations in the volume of warm water at their outlets. This variability is generally attributed to wind‐driven variations in warm water transport toward ice shelves. Inspired by conceptual representations of the global overturning circulation, we introduce a simple model for the evolution of the thermocline, which caps the warm water layer at the ice‐shelf front. This model demonstrates that interannual variations in coastal polynya buoyancy forcing can generate large decadal‐scale thermocline depth variations, even when the supply of warm water from the shelf‐break is fixed. The modeled variability involves transitions between bistable high and low melt regimes, enabled by feedbacks between basal melt rates and ice front stratification strength. Our simple model captures observed variations in near‐coast thermocline depth and stratification strength, and poses an alternative mechanism for warm water volume changes to wind‐driven theories.
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Interannual Variation of Modified Circumpolar Deep Water in the Dotson‐Getz Trough, West Antarctica
Abstract Widespread ice shelf thinning has been recorded in the Amundsen Sea in recent decades, driven by basal melting and intrusions of relatively warm Circumpolar Deep Water (CDW) onto the continental shelf. The Dotson Ice Shelf (DIS) is located to the south of the Amundsen Sea polynya, and has a high basal melting rate because modified CDW (mCDW) fills the Dotson‐Getz Trough (DGT) and reaches the base of the ice shelf. Here, hydrographic data in the DGT obtained during seven oceanographic surveys from 2007 to 2018 were used to study the interannual variation in mCDW volume and properties and their causes. Although mCDW volume showed relatively weak interannual variations at the continental shelf break, these variations intensified southward and reached a maximum in front of the DIS. There, the mCDW volume was ∼8,000 km3in 2007, rapidly decreased to 4,700 km3in 2014 before rebounding to 7,300 km3in 2018. We find that such interannual variability is coherent with local Ekman pumping integrated along the DGT modulated by the presence of sea ice, and complementing earlier theories involving shelf break winds only. The interannual variability in strength of the dominant south‐southeast coastal wind modulates the amplitude of Ekman upwelling along the eastern boundary of the Amundsen Sea polynya during the austral summers of the surveyed years, apparently leading to change in the volume of mCDW along the DGT. We note a strong correlation between the wind variability and the longitudinal location of the Amundsen Sea Low.
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- PAR ID:
- 10375004
- Publisher / Repository:
- DOI PREFIX: 10.1029
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans
- Volume:
- 126
- Issue:
- 12
- ISSN:
- 2169-9275
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
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