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Abstract A critical issue is determining the factors that control the year-to-year variability in precipitation over southern Asia. In this study, we employ a cyclostationary linear inverse model (CS-LIM) to quantify the relative contribution of tropical Pacific and Indian Ocean sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTAs) to the interannual variability of the Asian monsoon, especially Indian summer monsoon rainfall (ISMR). Through a series of CS-LIM experiments, we isolate the impacts of the direct forcing from Pacific SSTAs, Indian Ocean SSTAs, and their interaction on Asian monsoon rainfall variability. Our results reveal distinct patterns of influence with the direct forcing from the Pacific (Indian) Ocean tending to enhance (reduce) the magnitude of precipitation variability, while the Indo-Pacific interaction acts to strongly damp the variability of Asian monsoon precipitation, especially over India. We further investigate these specific impacts on ISMR by analyzing the relationship between tropical Indo-Pacific SSTAs and the leading three empirical orthogonal functions (EOFs) of ISMR. The results from our CS-LIM experiments indicate that the direct forcing from El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) enhances the variability of the first and third EOFs, while the Indian Ocean SSTA opposes ENSO’s effects, which is consistent with previous studies. Our new results show that the tropical Indo-Pacific interaction strongly damps ISMR variability, which is due to the ENSO-induced Indian Ocean dipole (IOD) opposing the direct impacts from ENSO on ISMR. Additionally, reduced ENSO amplitude and duration associated with the Indo-Pacific interaction may also contribute to the damping effect on ISMR, but this requires further study to understand the relevant mechanisms.
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Barrier for the Eastward Propagation of Madden‐Julian Oscillation Over the Maritime Continent: A Possible New Mechanism
Abstract The Madden‐Julian Oscillation (MJO) is the dominant intraseasonal variability of the tropical troposphere. Many MJOs originate from the tropical Indian Ocean and propagate into the Pacific via the Maritime Continent (MC). However, 30–50% of the MJO stalls over the MC, while its cause remains unclear. Here, we find that a new interbasin coupled phenomenon dubbed “Warm Pool Dipole” (WPD), which is associated with out‐of‐phase sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTAs) in the southeast Indian Ocean and the western central tropical Pacific, may play an important role in controlling the MJO propagation. During the positive WPD, ~67% of the MJO is stalled over the MC, whereas none is stalled during its negative phase. It is the SSTAs at both poles of the WPD together that produce these effects. The results are robust to cross–data set differences and supported by model experiments, although the small observational sample size limits their level of statistical significance.
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- Award ID(s):
- 1658132
- PAR ID:
- 10375208
- Publisher / Repository:
- DOI PREFIX: 10.1029
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- Geophysical Research Letters
- Volume:
- 47
- Issue:
- 21
- ISSN:
- 0094-8276
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
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