An accelerating global rate of sea level rise (SLR), coupled with direct human impacts to coastal watersheds and shorelines, threatens the continued survival of salt marshes. We developed a new landscape‐scale numerical model of salt marsh evolution and applied it to marshes in the Plum Island Estuary (Massachusetts, U.S.A.), a sediment‐deficient system bounded by steep uplands. To capture complexities of vertical accretion across the marsh platform, we employed a novel approach that incorporates spatially variable suspended sediment concentrations and biomass of multiple plant species as functions of elevation and distance from sediment sources. The model predicts a stable areal extent of Plum Island marshes for a variety of SLR scenarios through 2100, where limited marsh drowning is compensated by limited marsh migration into adjacent uplands. Nevertheless, the model predicts widespread conversion of high marsh vegetation to low marsh vegetation, and accretion deficits that indicate eventual marsh drowning. Although sediment‐deficient marshes bounded by steep uplands are considered extremely vulnerable to SLR, our results highlight that marshes with high elevation capital can maintain their areal extent for decades to centuries even under conditions in which they will inevitably drown.
Salt marshes are dynamic systems able to laterally expand, contract, and vertically accrete in response to sea level rise. Here, we present the grand challenges that need to be addressed to fully characterize marsh morphodynamics. The review focuses on physical processes and quantitative models. Without predictive models, it is impossible to determine the future marsh evolution under accelerated sea level rise. In these models, one of the challenges is to resolve both horizontal and vertical dynamics within the same framework. Vertically, the marsh has to accumulate enough material to contrast rising water levels. Horizontally, marsh erosion at the ocean side must be compensated by landward expansion in forests, lawns, and agricultural fields. The dynamics of the marsh‐upland boundary are still not fully understood and will require more research in the upcoming years. The complexity of marsh vegetation is seldom captured in predictive models of marsh evolution. More research is needed to understand the effects of each species or species assemblages on hydrodynamics and sediment transport. Here, we further advocate that a sediment budget resolving all sediment fluxes in a marsh complex is the most important metric of marsh resilience. Characterization of these fluxes will enable to connect salt marshes to other landforms and to unravel feedbacks controlling the evolution of the entire coastal system. Current models of marsh evolution rely on sparse data sets collected at few locations. Novel remote sensing techniques will provide high‐resolution spatial data that will inform a new generation of computer models.
more » « less- PAR ID:
- 10375268
- Publisher / Repository:
- DOI PREFIX: 10.1029
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- Journal of Geophysical Research: Earth Surface
- Volume:
- 125
- Issue:
- 8
- ISSN:
- 2169-9003
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
More Like this
-
more » « less
Abstract -
null (Ed.)Accelerated sea-level rise poses a significant threat to coastal habitats, such as salt marshes, which provide critical ecosystem services. Persistence of salt marshes with rising sea levels relies, in part, on vertical accretion. Ecogeomorphic models emphasize the role of plant production in vertical accretion via sediment trapping and belowground organic matter contribution. Thus, changes in plant production can influence saltmarsh persistence with sea-level rise. However, models of marsh accretion do not consider animal-mediated changes in plant production. We tested how 2 marsh crabs, Minuca pugnax and Sesarma reticulatum , which have contrasting effects (facilitation vs. herbivory) on Spartina alterniflora production, may indirectly influence sediment deposition and belowground production, through observational surveys and field manipulation. Minuca facilitated Spartina biomass in some marshes, but not sediment deposition, and had no effect on belowground organic matter contribution, suggesting that in isolation, Minuca has little indirect impact on saltmarsh geomorphic processes. Sesarma reduced Spartina biomass; however, sediment deposition increased, contrary to ecogeomorphic models, likely due to sediment resuspension by Minuca . When Minuca and Sesarma co-occur, the effect on Spartina production and sediment deposition depended on the amount of grazing. When Sesarma grazing is low, Minuca facilitates Spartina growth and mitigates the effect of grazing. However, when Sesarma grazing is high and vegetation is removed, Minuca can resuspend sediment through bioturbation, suggesting the net effect of these species may depend on their relative abundance. This study demonstrates that the effects of plant-animal interactions on marsh resilience against sea-level rise are context dependent.more » « less
-
more » « less
Abstract Sediment budget and sediment availability are direct metrics for evaluating the resilience of coastal bays to sea‐level rise (SLR). Here we use a high‐resolution numerical model of a tidally dominated marsh‐lagoon system to explore feedbacks between SLR and sediment dynamics. SLR augments tidal prism and inundation depth, facilitating sediment deposition on the marsh platform. At the same time, our results indicate that SLR enhances ebb‐dominated currents and increases sediment resuspension, reducing the sediment‐trapping capacity of tidal flats and bays and leading to a negative sediment budget for the entire system. This bimodal distribution of sediments budget trajectories will have a profound impact on the morphology of coastal bays, increasing the difference in elevation between salt marshes and tidal flats and potentially affecting intertidal ecosystems. Our results also clearly indicate that landforms lower with respect to the tidal frame are more affected by SLR than salt marshes.
-
Salt marshes are vulnerable to sea-level rise, sediment deficits, and storm impacts. To remain vertically resilient, salt marshes must accrete sediment at rates greater or equal to sea-level rise. Ice-rafted debris (IRD), sediment that has been moved and deposited from ice sheets, is one of many processes that contribute to salt marsh sediment accretion in northern latitudes. On 4 January 2018, a winter storm caused major ice mobilization in the Plum Island Estuary (PIE), Massachusetts, USA, which led to large deposits of ice-rafted sediment. We aimed to quantify the volume and mass of deposited sediment, and evaluate the significance of IRD to sediment supply in Plum Island using pixel-based land-cover classification of aerial imagery collected by an Unmanned Aircraft System (UAS) and a Digital Elevation Model. Field measurements of patch thickness, and the area of IRD determined from the classification were used to estimate annual sediment accretion from IRD. Results show that IRD deposits are localized in three areas, and estimates show that IRD contributes an annual sediment accretion rate of 0.57 ± 0.14 mm/y to the study site. New England salt marsh accretion rates typically vary between 2–10 mm/y, and the average PIE sediment accretion rate is 2.5–2.7 mm/y. Therefore, this event contributed on average 20% of the annual volume of material accreted by salt marshes, although locally the deposit thickness was 8–14 times the annual accretion rate. We show that pixel-based classification can be a useful tool for identifying sediment deposits from remote sensing. Additionally, we suggest that IRD has the potential to bring a significant supply of sediment to salt marshes in northern latitudes and contribute to sediment accretion. As remotely sensed aerial imagery from UASs becomes more readily available, this method can be used to efficiently identify and quantify deposited sediment.more » « less
-
Global assessments predict the impact of sea-level rise on salt marshes with present-day levels of sediment supply from rivers and the coastal ocean. However, these assessments do not consider that variations in marsh extent and the related reconfiguration of intertidal area affect local sediment dynamics, ultimately controlling the fate of the marshes themselves. We conducted a meta-analysis of six bays along the United States East Coast to show that a reduction in the current salt marsh area decreases the sediment availability in estuarine systems through changes in regional-scale hydrodynamics. This positive feedback between marsh disappearance and the ability of coastal bays to retain sediments reduces the trapping capacity of the whole tidal system and jeopardizes the survival of the remaining marshes. We show that on marsh platforms, the sediment deposition per unit area decreases exponentially with marsh loss. Marsh erosion enlarges tidal prism values and enhances the tendency toward ebb dominance, thus decreasing the overall sediment availability of the system. Our findings highlight that marsh deterioration reduces the sediment stock in back-barrier basins and therefore compromises the resilience of salt marshes.more » « less
