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Abstract Multiple-use conflicts of the marine benthos (“bottom-use conflicts”) are increasing as humans expand use of the coastal zone. These conflicts necessitate balanced policies that consider the economic and ecological benefits of different bottom uses. In the Virginia coastal lagoons on the US east coast, there is a potential bottom-use conflict between hard clam (Mercenaria mercenaria) aquaculture and seagrass (Zostera marina) meadows. We leveraged two decades (2001–2021) of aerial imagery and environmental data to quantify historic trends in bottom use, assess the realized niche of seagrass and clam aquaculture across depth, sand fraction, root mean square (RMS) velocity, fetch, and sea surface temperature (SST) anomaly, and used random forest models to predict the potential extent of seagrass, clam aquaculture, and bottom-use conflict. We found growth in the coverage of both seagrass (+ 3373%) and clam aquaculture (+ 140%) over the past 20 years with a corresponding increase in bottom-use conflict (+ 2579%), though conflict area remained relatively minor. Seagrass occurred in deeper areas with higher fetch, a higher frequency of SST anomalies, lower sand fraction, and similar RMS velocities to areas containing clam aquaculture. Our random forest models predicted potential for the expansion of seagrass (+ 62%) and clam aquaculture (+ 263.9%) with a relatively small area of predicted spatial overlap (12.3%) under current conditions. These results illustrate how species distribution models can help us understand the spatial impacts of aquaculture on natural ecosystems and inform managers and policy makers to create objective policies that balance socioeconomic and ecologic needs. 

Abstract Salt marshes sequester a disproportionately large amount of carbon dioxide (CO₂) from the atmosphere through high rates of photosynthesis and carbon burial. Climate change could potentially alter this carbon sink, particularly the response of vegetation to environmental stressors that can decrease photosynthesis. Midday depression of gross primary production (GPP), characterized by a decline in photosynthesis during midday, has been documented in multiple ecosystems as a response to drought, high temperatures, and other stressors linked to climate change. Yet, midday depression has not been thoroughly investigated in salt marsh ecosystems. Here, we show that the midday depression of GPP in aSpartina alterniflorasalt marsh on the Eastern Shore of Virginia was ubiquitous and occurred on 76% of the 283 days studied during the 2019–2022 growing seasons. GPP was estimated from eddy covariance measurements with flux partitioning. Using random forest, we found that the daily maximum tidal height and air temperature were the strongest predictors of midday depression of GPP, with lower high tides and warmer temperatures associated with more severe depression. This result suggests midday depression occurs when GPP decreases in the afternoon in response to salinity and water stress. To our knowledge, this is the first examination of midday depression of photosynthesis inS.alternifloraat the ecosystem scale. Our results highlight the potential of climate change to increase midday depression of photosynthesis and ultimately weaken the salt marsh carbon sink. 

Abstract Connectivity between adjacent ecosystems is thought to increase ecosystem resilience and function. In coastal ecosystems, the exchange of sediment and nutrients between mudflats and marshes is important for the long‐term dynamics of both systems. Mudflat morphodynamics are driven by the interaction of waves and sediment erodibility, which is a function of sediment type and the presence of biostabilizers such as microphytobenthos. However, there is a poor understanding about how the evolution of mudflats may impact the morphodynamics and function of adjacent salt marshes. Here, we use a Coastal Landscape Transect model connecting mudflats and marshes to investigate how microphytobenthos influence the coupled behavior of mudflats and marshes, and how that coupled behavior influences carbon storage. We find that biofilms reduce the connectivity between mudflats and marshes by reducing erodibility and sediment exchange. Reduced connectivity associated with microphytobenthos leads to a shallower mudflat and more carbon stored in the mudflat sediments, which in turn cascades to a higher combined marsh and mudflat carbon stock. Furthermore, our results highlight the role of connectivity across the coastal landscape and suggest that biostabilization leads to relatively small changes in morphodynamics but relatively large changes in ecosystem function. 

ABSTRACT Spatial synchrony, the tendency for temporal fluctuations in an ecological variable to be positively associated in different locations, is a widespread and important phenomenon in ecology. Understanding of the nature and mechanisms of synchrony, and how synchrony is changing, has developed rapidly over the past 2 decades. Many recent developments have taken place through the study of long‐term data sets. Here, we review and synthesise some important recent advances in spatial synchrony, with a focus on how long‐term data have facilitated new understanding. Longer time series do not just facilitate better testing of existing ideas or more precise statistical results; more importantly, they also frequently make possible the expansion of conceptual paradigms. We discuss several such advances in our understanding of synchrony, how long‐term data led to these advances, and how future studies can continue to improve the state of knowledge. 

ABSTRACT Herbivore fronts can alter plant traits (chemical and/or morphological features) and performance via grazing. Yet, herbivore‐driven trait alterations are rarely considered when assessing how these fronts shape ecosystems, despite the critical role that plant performance plays in ecosystem functioning. We evaluated herbivore fronts created by the purple marsh crab,Sesarma reticulatum, as it consumes the cordgrass,Spartina alterniflora, in Virginian salt marshes.Sesarmafronts form at the head of tidal creeks and move inland, creating a denuded mudflat between the tall‐formSpartinalow marsh (trailing edge) and the short‐formSpartinahigh marsh (leading edge). We quantifiedSesarmafront migration rate, tested ifSesarmaherbivory altered geomorphic processes andSpartinatraits at the trailing and leading edges, and examined how these trait changes persisted through the final 8 weeks of the growing season.Sesarmafront migration in our region is two times slower than fronts in the Southeast United States, andSpartinaretreat rate at the leading edge is greater than the revegetation rate at the trailing edge.Sesarmafronts lowered elevation and decreased sediment shear strength at the trailing edge while having no impact on soil organic matter and bulk density at either edge. At the leading edge,Sesarmagrazing reducedSpartinagrowth traits and defensive ability, and trait changes persisted through the remaining growing season. At the trailing edge, however,Sesarmagrazing promoted belowground biomass production and had limited to no effect on growth or defensive traits. We show that herbivore fronts negatively impact saltmarsh plant traits at their leading edge, potentially contributing to front propagation. In contrast, plants at the trailing edge were more resistant to herbivore grazing and may enhance resilience through elevated belowground biomass production. Future work should consider herbivore‐driven plant trait alterations in the context of herbivore fronts to better predict ecosystem response and recovery. 

ABSTRACT Sea level rise and storm surges affect coastal forests along low‐lying shorelines. Salinization and flooding kill trees and favour the encroachment of salt‐tolerant marsh vegetation. The hydrology of this ecological transition is complex and requires a multidisciplinary approach. Sea level rise (press) and storms (pulses) act on different timescales, affecting the forest vegetation in different ways. Salinization can occur either by vertical infiltration during flooding or from the aquifer driven by tides and sea level rise. Here, we detail the ecohydrological processes acting in the critical zone of retreating coastal forests. An increase in sea level has a three‐pronged effect on flooding and salinization: It raises the maximum elevation of storm surges, shifts the freshwater‐saltwater interface inland, and elevates the water table, leading to surface flooding from below. Trees can modify their root systems and local soil hydrology to better withstand salinization. Hydrological stress from intermittent storm surges inhibits tree growth, as evidenced by tree ring analysis. Tree rings also reveal a lag between the time when tree growth significantly slows and when the tree ultimately dies. Tree dieback reduces transpiration, retaining more water in the soil and creating conditions more favourable for flooding. Sedimentation from storm waters combined to organic matter decomposition can change the landscape, affecting flooding and runoff. Our results indicate that only a multidisciplinary approach can fully capture the ecohydrology of retreating forests in a period of accelerated sea level rise. 

Abstract Forecasts of root growth and carbon sequestration under global change are compromised by uncertainty in how plants will allocate biomass between above and belowground pools. Here, we develop a simple model to assess whether functional balance theory can explain a complex biomass allocation response observed in a brackish marsh under experimental warming and elevated CO₂. Our model shows how treatment‐driven changes in nitrogen supply and demand can explain divergent observations of root growth (i.e., maximum responses under intermediate warming and elevated CO₂). The model also reveals a surprising interaction between warming and eutrophication, where enhanced N loading to coastal marshes may reduce adverse impacts of warming on root growth. Our findings provide a mechanistic basis for incorporating biomass allocation into forecast models of marsh evolution. They also provide a general example of using ecological theory to decompose complex net responses observed in multi‐factor global change experiments into constituent processes. 

Abstract Barrier islands are landscape features that protect coastlines by reducing wave energy and erosion. Quantifying vegetation-topographic interactions between adjacent habitats are essential for predicting long-term island response and resilience to sea-level rise and disturbance. To understand the effects of dune dynamics on adjacent interior island ecosystem processes, we quantified how sediment availability and previous disturbance regime interact with vegetation to influence dune building and ease of seawater and sediment movement into the island interior on two US mid-Atlantic coast barrier islands. We conducted field surveys of sediment accretion, vegetative cover, and soil characteristics in dune and swale habitats. Digital elevation models provided assessment of water flow resistance from the mean high water mark into the island interior. We found that geographic location impacted sediment accretion rates andPanicum amarum(a species increasing in abundance over time in the Virginia barrier islands) accreted sediment at a significantly lower rate compared to other dune grasses. Dune elevation impacted the ease of seawater flow into the island interior, altering soil chlorides, annual net primary productivity, and soil carbon and nitrogen. Our work demonstrates the importance of incorporating biological processes and cross-island connectivity into future scenario modeling and predictions of rising sea-levels and increased disturbance. 

Abstract To inform water quality monitoring techniques and modeling at coastal research sites, this study investigated seasonality and trends in coastal lagoons on the eastern shore of Virginia, USA. Seasonality was quantified with harmonic analysis of low-frequency time-series, approximately 30 years of quarterly sampled data at thirteen mainland, lagoon, and ocean inlet sites, along with 4–6 years of high-frequency, 15-min resolution sonde data at two mainland sites. Temperature, dissolved oxygen, and apparent oxygen utilization (AOU) seasonality were dominated by annual harmonics, while salinity and chlorophyll-aexhibited mixed annual and semi-annual harmonics. Mainland sites had larger seasonal amplitudes and higher peak summer values for temperature, chlorophyll-aand AOU, likely from longer water residence times, shallower waters, and proximity to marshes and uplands. Based on the statistical subsampling of high-frequency data, one to several decades of low-frequency data (at quarterly sampling) were needed to quantify the climatological seasonal cycle within specified confidence intervals. Statistically significant decadal warming and increasing chlorophyll-aconcentrations were found at a sub-set of mainland sites, with no distinct geographic patterns for other water quality trends. The analysis highlighted challenges in detecting long-term trends in coastal water quality at sites sampled at low frequency with large seasonal and interannual variability. 

Abstract Consumers can directly (e.g., consumption) and indirectly (e.g., trophic cascades) influence carbon cycling in blue carbon ecosystems. Previous work found that large grazers have nuanced effects on carbon stocks, yet, small, bioturbating‐grazers, which remove plant biomass and alter sediment properties, remain an understudied driver of carbon cycling. We used field‐derived and remote sensing data to quantify how the purple marsh crab,Sesarma reticulatum, influenced carbon stocks, flux, and recovery in salt marshes.Sesarmacaused a 40%–70% loss in carbon stocks as fronts propagated inland (i.e., ungrazed to recovered transition), with front migration rates accelerating over time. Despite latitudinal differences, front migration rate had no effect on carbon stocks, flux, or time to replacement. When we includedSesarmadisturbance in carbon flux calculations, we found it may take 5–100 years for marshes to replace lost carbon, if at all. Combined, we show that small grazers cause a net loss in carbon stocks as they move through the landscape, and irrespective of migration rate, these grazer‐driven impacts persist for decades. This work showcases the significant role of consumers in carbon storage and flux, challenging the classic paradigm of plant–sediment feedbacks as the primary ecogeomorphic driver of carbon cycling in blue carbon ecosystems.