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Abstract. Linear elastic fracture mechanics (LEFM) models have been used to estimate crevasse depths in glaciers and to represent iceberg calving in ice sheet models. However, existing LEFM models assume glacier ice to be homogeneous and utilize the mechanical properties of fully consolidated ice. Using depth-invariant properties is not realistic as the process of compaction from unconsolidated snow to firn to glacial ice is dependent on several environmental factors, typically leading to a lower density and Young's modulus in upper surface strata. New analytical solutions for longitudinal-stress profiles are derived using depth-varying properties based on borehole data from the Ronne Ice Shelf and are used in an LEFM model to determine the maximum penetration depths of an isolated crevasse in grounded glaciers and floating ice shelves. These maximum crevasse depths are compared to those obtained for homogeneous glacial ice, showing the importance of including the effect of the upper unconsolidated firn layers on crevasse propagation. The largest reductions in the penetration depth ratio were observed for shallow grounded glaciers, with variations in Young's modulus being more influential than firn density (maximum differences in crevasse depth of 46 % and 20 %, respectively), whereas firn density changes resulted in an increase in penetration depth for thinner floating ice shelves (95 %–188 % difference in crevasse depth between constant and depth-varying properties). Thus, our study shows that the firn layer can increase the vulnerability of ice shelves to fracture and calving, highlighting the importance of considering depth-dependent firn layer material properties in LEFM models for estimating crevasse penetration depths and predicting rift propagation.
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Evaluation of Iceberg Calving Models Against Observations From Greenland Outlet Glaciers
Abstract Frontal ablation processes at marine‐terminating glaciers are challenging to observe and difficult to represent in numerical ice flow models, yet play critical roles in modulating ice sheet mass balance. Current ice sheet models typically rely on simple iceberg calving models to prescribe either terminus positions or iceberg calving rates, but the relative accuracies and uncertainties of these calving models remain largely unconstrained at the ice sheet scale. Here, we evaluate six published iceberg calving models against spatially and temporally diverse observations from 50 marine‐terminating outlet glaciers in Greenland. We seek the single model that best reproduces observed conditions across all glaciers, at all observation times, and with low sensitivity to calibration uncertainty. Five of six calving models can produce unbiased estimates of calving position or calving rate at the ice sheet scale. However, time series analysis reveals that, when using a single, optimized model parameter, rate‐predicting calving models frequently yield calving rate errors in excess of 10 m d−1. In comparison, terminus position‐predicting calving models more accurately track observed changes in terminus position (remaining within ~1 km of the observed grounded terminus position). Overall, our results indicate that the crevasse depth calving model provides the best balance of high accuracy and low sensitivity to imperfect parameter calibration. While the crevasse depth model appears unlikely to capture the true controls on crevasse penetration, numerically, it reproduces observed terminus dynamics with high fidelity and should be considered a leading candidate for use in models of the Greenland Ice Sheet.
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- Award ID(s):
- 1716865
- PAR ID:
- 10375583
- Publisher / Repository:
- DOI PREFIX: 10.1029
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- Journal of Geophysical Research: Earth Surface
- Volume:
- 125
- Issue:
- 6
- ISSN:
- 2169-9003
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
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