skip to main content
US FlagAn official website of the United States government
dot gov icon
Official websites use .gov
A .gov website belongs to an official government organization in the United States.
https lock icon
Secure .gov websites use HTTPS
A lock ( lock ) or https:// means you've safely connected to the .gov website. Share sensitive information only on official, secure websites.

Explore Research Products in the PAR
It may take a few hours for recently added research products to appear in PAR search results.


Title: Climatic and anthropogenic drivers of a drying Himalayan river
Abstract. Streamflow regimes are rapidly changing in many regions of the world. Attribution of these changes to specific hydrological processes and their underlying climatic and anthropogenic drivers is essential to formulate an effective water policy. Traditional approaches to hydrologic attribution rely on the ability to infer hydrological processes through the development of catchment-scale hydrological models. However, such approaches are challenging to implement in practice due to limitations in using models to accurately associate changes in observed outcomes with corresponding drivers. Here we present an alternative approach that leverages the method of multiple hypotheses to attribute changes in streamflow in the Upper Jhelum watershed, an important tributary headwater region of the Indus basin, where a dramatic decline in streamflow since 2000 has yet to be adequately attributed to its corresponding drivers. We generate and empirically evaluate a series of alternative and complementary hypotheses concerning distinct components of the water balance. This process allows a holistic understanding of watershed-scale processes to be developed, even though the catchment-scale water balance remains open. Using remote sensing and secondary data, we explore changes in climate, surface water, and groundwater. The evidence reveals that climate, rather than land use, had a considerably stronger influence on reductions in streamflow, both through reduced precipitation and increased evapotranspiration. Baseflow analyses suggest different mechanisms affecting streamflow decline in upstream and downstream regions, respectively. These findings offer promising avenues for future research in the Upper Jhelum watershed, and an alternative approach to hydrological attribution in data-scarce regions.  more » « less
Award ID(s):
2142967
PAR ID:
10378009
Author(s) / Creator(s):
; ;
Date Published:
Journal Name:
Hydrology and Earth System Sciences
Volume:
26
Issue:
2
ISSN:
1607-7938
Page Range / eLocation ID:
375 to 395
Format(s):
Medium: X
Sponsoring Org:
National Science Foundation
More Like this
  1. ; ; (, American Geophysical Union)
    In the Anthropocene, humans have altered the properties and processes of hydrological systems across scales. The extent of human intervention in the landscape limits the utility of traditional hydrological modelling schemes. Since purely hydrological conceptual models no longer fit these systems, hydrologists must integrate key human interventions into conceptual models of human-modified catchments. Despite the advances in analyzing the observed changes within the hydrological cycle using bottom-up (or reductionist) modelling approaches, the aptitude of top-down hydrologic schemes for socio-hydrological system analysis is still untested. Here we show the potential of top-down hydrological modelling human modified watersheds using anthropogenic hydrological signatures. Specifically, we assess the ability of the top-down modelling method in human-modified catchments to improve the representation hydrological signatures (e.g. mean monthly runoff, flow duration curve) while ensuring a sufficient, but not excessive, level of complexity in model formulation. First, we develop new conceptual models which include human hydrological modifications commonly identified in the literature. Then, we link these new features in the conceptual models to features in the hydrological signatures. We apply the proposed methodology to the Lake Mendocino Watershed in Northern California, US. We compare a purely hydrological model developed for this catchment based on natural watershed properties using naturalized streamflow to a hydrological model of the human-modified catchment using observed streamflow. We anticipate that the proposed approach contributes to the development of detection and attribution frameworks for key anthropogenic changes of observed hydrological variability and improved model performance in human-modified catchments. 
    more » « less
  2. ; ; ; ; ; (, Geoscientific Model Development)
    Abstract. Dryland regions are characterised by water scarcity and are facingmajor challenges under climate change. One difficulty is anticipating howrainfall will be partitioned into evaporative losses, groundwater, soilmoisture, and runoff (the water balance) in the future, which has importantimplications for water resources and dryland ecosystems. However, in orderto effectively estimate the water balance, hydrological models in drylandsneed to capture the key processes at the appropriate spatio-temporal scales.These include spatially restricted and temporally brief rainfall, highevaporation rates, transmission losses, and focused groundwater recharge.Lack of available input and evaluation data and the high computational costsof explicit representation of ephemeral surface–groundwater interactionsrestrict the usefulness of most hydrological models in these environments.Therefore, here we have developed a parsimonious distributed hydrologicalmodel for DRYland Partitioning (DRYP). The DRYP model incorporates the keyprocesses of water partitioning in dryland regions with limited datarequirements, and we tested it in the data-rich Walnut Gulch ExperimentalWatershed against measurements of streamflow, soil moisture, andevapotranspiration. Overall, DRYP showed skill in quantifying the maincomponents of the dryland water balance including monthly observations ofstreamflow (Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency, NSE, ∼ 0.7),evapotranspiration (NSE > 0.6), and soil moisture (NSE ∼ 0.7). The model showed that evapotranspiration consumes > 90 % of the total precipitation input to the catchment andthat < 1 % leaves the catchment as streamflow. Greater than 90 % of the overland flow generated in the catchment is lost throughephemeral channels as transmission losses. However, only ∼ 35 % of the total transmission losses percolate to the groundwater aquiferas focused groundwater recharge, whereas the rest is lost to the atmosphereas riparian evapotranspiration. Overall, DRYP is a modular, versatile, andparsimonious Python-based model which can be used to anticipate and plan forclimatic and anthropogenic changes to water fluxes and storage in drylandregions. 
    more » « less
  3. ; ; ; ; ; ; ; (, Environmental Research Letters)
    Urbanisation is an important driver of changes in streamflow. These changes are not uniform across catchments due to the diverse nature of water sources, storage, and pathways in urban river systems. While land cover data are typically used in urban hydrology analyses, other characteristics of urban systems (such as water management practices) are poorly quantified which means that urbanisation impacts on streamflow are often difficult to detect and quantify. Here, we assess urban impacts on streamflow dynamics for 711 catchments across England and Wales. We use the CAMELS-GB dataset, which is a large-sample hydrology dataset containing hydro-meteorological timeseries and catchment attributes characterising climate, geology, water management practices and land cover. We quantify urban impacts on a wide range of streamflow dynamics (flow magnitudes, variability, frequency, and duration) using random forest models. We demonstrate that wastewater discharges from sewage treatment plants and urban land cover dominate urban hydrology signals across England and Wales. Wastewater discharges increase low flows and reduce flashiness in urban catchments. In contrast, urban land cover increases flashiness and frequency of medium and high flow events. We highlight the need to move beyond land cover metrics and include other features of urban river systems in hydrological analyses to quantify current and future drivers of urban streamflow. 
    more » « less
  4. ; ; ; ; ; (, Frontiers in Water)
    Climate warming in alpine regions is changing patterns of water storage, a primary control on alpine plant ecology, biogeochemistry, and water supplies to lower elevations. There is an outstanding need to determine how the interacting drivers of precipitation and the critical zone (CZ) dictate the spatial pattern and time evolution of soil water storage. In this study, we developed an analytical framework that combines intensive hydrologic measurements and extensive remotely-sensed observations with statistical modeling to identify areas with similar temporal trends in soil water storage within, and predict their relationships across, a 0.26 km 2 alpine catchment in the Colorado Rocky Mountains, U.S.A. Repeat measurements of soil moisture were used to drive an unsupervised clustering algorithm, which identified six unique groups of locations ranging from predominantly dry to persistently very wet within the catchment. We then explored relationships between these hydrologic groups and multiple CZ-related indices, including snow depth, plant productivity, macro- (10 2 ->10 3 m) and microtopography (<10 0 -10 2 m), and hydrological flow paths. Finally, we used a supervised machine learning random forest algorithm to map each of the six hydrologic groups across the catchment based on distributed CZ properties and evaluated their aggregate relationships at the catchment scale. Our analysis indicated that ~40–50% of the catchment is hydrologically connected to the stream channel, lending insight into the portions of the catchment that likely dominate stream water and solute fluxes. This research expands our understanding of patch-to-catchment-scale physical controls on hydrologic and biogeochemical processes, as well as their relationships across space and time, which will inform predictive models aimed at determining future changes to alpine ecosystems. 
    more » « less
  5. ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; et al (, Hydrological Processes)
    ABSTRACT The importance of subsurface water dynamics, such as water storage and flow partitioning, is well recognised. Yet, our understanding of their drivers and links to streamflow generation has remained elusive, especially in small headwater streams that are often data‐limited but crucial for downstream water quantity and quality. Large‐scale analyses have focused on streamflow characteristics across rivers with varying drainage areas, often overlooking the subsurface water dynamics that shape streamflow behaviour. Here we ask the question:What are the climate and landscape characteristics that regulate subsurface dynamic storage, flow path partitioning, and dynamics of streamflow generation in headwater streams?To answer this question, we used streamflow data and a widely‐used hydrological model (HBV) for 15 headwater catchments across the contiguous United States. Results show that climate characteristics such as aridity and precipitation phase (snow or rain) and land attributes such as topography and soil texture are key drivers of streamflow generation dynamics. In particular, steeper slopes generally promoted more streamflow, regardless of aridity. Streams in flat, rainy sites (< 30% precipitation as snow) with finer soils exhibited flashier regimes than those in snowy sites (> 30% precipitation as snow) or sites with coarse soils and deeper flow paths. In snowy sites, less weathered, thinner soils promoted shallower flow paths such that discharge was more sensitive to changes in storage, but snow dampened streamflow flashiness overall. Results here indicate that land characteristics such as steepness and soil texture modify subsurface water storage and shallow and deep flow partitioning, ultimately regulating streamflow response to climate forcing. As climate change increases uncertainty in water availability, understanding the interacting climate and landscape features that regulate streamflow will be essential to predict hydrological shifts in headwater catchments and improve water resources management. 
    more » « less
  • Citation Formats
  • MLA
  • APA
  • Chicago
  • BibTeX
  • Text Encoded Conversion
  • XML
  • Save / Share this Record
  • Send to Email