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Abstract The artificial impoundment of water behind dams causes global mean sea level (GMSL) to fall as reservoirs fill but also generates a local rise in sea level due to the increased mass in the reservoir and the crustal deformation this mass induces. To estimate spatiotemporal fluctuations in sea level due to water impoundment, we use a historical data set that includes 6,329 reservoirs completed between 1900 and 2011, as well as projections of 3,565 reservoirs that are expected to be completed by 2040. The GMSL change associated with the historical data (−0.2 mm yr−1from 1900–2011) is consistent with previous studies, but the temporal and spatial resolution allows for local studies that were not previously possible, revealing that some locations experience a sea level rise of as much as 40 mm over less than a decade. Future construction of reservoirs through ~2040 is projected to cause a GMSL fall whose rate is comparable to that of the last century (−0.3 mm yr−1) but with a geographic distribution that will be distinct from the last century, including a rise in sea level in more coastal areas. The analysis of expected construction shows that significant impoundment near coastal communities in the coming decades could enhance the flooding risk already heightened by global sea level rise.
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Measuring Global Mean Sea Level Changes With Surface Drifting Buoys
Abstract Combining ocean model data and in situ Lagrangian data, I show that an array of surface drifting buoys tracked by a Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS), such as the Global Drifter Program, could provide estimates of global mean sea level (GMSL) and its changes, including linear decadal trends. For a sustained array of 1,250 globally distributed buoys with a standardized design, I demonstrate that GMSL decadal linear trend estimates with an uncertainty less than 0.3 mm yr−1could be achieved with GNSS daily random error of 1.6 m or less in the vertical direction. This demonstration assumes that controlled vertical position measurements could be acquired from drifting buoys, which is yet to be demonstrated. Development and implementation of such measurements could ultimately provide an independent and resilient observational system to infer natural and anthropogenic sea level changes, augmenting the ongoing tide gauge and satellites records.
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- Award ID(s):
- 1851166
- PAR ID:
- 10381581
- Publisher / Repository:
- DOI PREFIX: 10.1029
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- Geophysical Research Letters
- Volume:
- 47
- Issue:
- 21
- ISSN:
- 0094-8276
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
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