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1. Topological machine learning for protein–nucleic acid binding affinity changes upon mutation

   https://doi.org/10.1088/2632-2153/ae1714  

   Liu, Xiang; Wee, Junjie; Wei, Guo-Wei (November 2025, Machine Learning: Science and Technology)

   Abstract Understanding how protein mutations affect protein–nucleic acid binding is critical for unraveling disease mechanisms and advancing therapies. Current experimental approaches are laborious, and computational methods remain limited in accuracy. To address this challenge, we propose a novel topological machine learning model (TopoML) combining persistent Laplacian (from topological data analysis) with multi-perspective features: physicochemical properties, topological structures, and protein Transformer-derived sequence embeddings. This integrative framework captures robust representations of protein–nucleic acid binding interactions. To validate the proposed method, we employ two datasets, a protein–DNA dataset with 596 single-point amino acid mutations, and a protein–RNA dataset with 710 single-point amino acid mutations. We show that the proposed TopoML model outperforms state-of-the-art methods in predicting mutation-induced binding affinity changes for protein–DNA and protein–RNA complexes. 

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2. Structural Perspective on Revealing and Altering Molecular Functions of Genetic Variants Linked with Diseases

   https://doi.org/10.3390/ijms20030548  

   Peng, Yunhui; Alexov, Emil; Basu, Sankar (February 2019, International Journal of Molecular Sciences)

   Structural information of biological macromolecules is crucial and necessary to deliver predictions about the effects of mutations—whether polymorphic or deleterious (i.e., disease causing), wherein, thermodynamic parameters, namely, folding and binding free energies potentially serve as effective biomarkers. It may be emphasized that the effect of a mutation depends on various factors, including the type of protein (globular, membrane or intrinsically disordered protein) and the structural context in which it occurs. Such information may positively aid drug-design. Furthermore, due to the intrinsic plasticity of proteins, even mutations involving radical change of the structural and physico–chemical properties of the amino acids (native vs. mutant) can still have minimal effects on protein thermodynamics. However, if a mutation causes significant perturbation by either folding or binding free energies, it is quite likely to be deleterious. Mitigating such effects is a promising alternative to the traditional approaches of designing inhibitors. This can be done by structure-based in silico screening of small molecules for which binding to the dysfunctional protein restores its wild type thermodynamics. In this review we emphasize the effects of mutations on two important biophysical properties, stability and binding affinity, and how structures can be used for structure-based drug design to mitigate the effects of disease-causing variants on the above biophysical properties. 

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3. Modeling and predicting cancer clonal evolution with reinforcement learning

   https://doi.org/10.1101/gr.277672.123  

   Ivanovic, Stefan; El-Kebir, Mohammed (June 2023, Genome Research)

   Cancer results from an evolutionary process that typically yields multiple clones with varying sets of mutations within the same tumor. Accurately modeling this process is key to understanding and predicting cancer evolution. Here, we introduce clone to mutation (CloMu), a flexible and low-parameter tree generative model of cancer evolution. CloMu uses a two-layer neural network trained via reinforcement learning to determine the probability of new mutations based on the existing mutations on a clone. CloMu supports several prediction tasks, including the determination of evolutionary trajectories, tree selection, causality and interchangeability between mutations, and mutation fitness. Importantly, previous methods support only some of these tasks, and many suffer from overfitting on data sets with a large number of mutations. Using simulations, we show that CloMu either matches or outperforms current methods on a wide variety of prediction tasks. In particular, for simulated data with interchangeable mutations, current methods are unable to uncover causal relationships as effectively as CloMu. On breast cancer and leukemia cohorts, we show that CloMu determines similarities and causal relationships between mutations as well as the fitness of mutations. We validate CloMu's inferred mutation fitness values for the leukemia cohort by comparing them to clonal proportion data not used during training, showing high concordance. In summary, CloMu's low-parameter model facilitates a wide range of prediction tasks regarding cancer evolution on increasingly available cohort-level data sets. 

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4. Assessment of software methods for estimating protein-protein relative binding affinities

   https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.09.30.320069  

   Gonzalez, Tawny; Martin, Kyle P.; Barnes, Jonathan E.; Patel, Jagdish S.; Ytreberg, F. Marty (October 2020, PloS one)

   null (Ed.)

   A growing number of computational tools have been developed to accurately and rapidly predict the impact of amino acid mutations on protein-protein relative binding affinities. Such tools have many applications, for example, designing new drugs and studying evolutionary mechanisms. In the search for accuracy, many of these methods employ expensive yet rigorous molecular dynamics simulations. By contrast, non-rigorous methods use less exhaustive statistical mechanics, allowing for more efficient calculations. However, it is unclear if such methods retain enough accuracy to replace rigorous methods in binding affinity calculations. This trade-off between accuracy and computational expense makes it difficult to determine the best method for a particular system or study. Here, eight non-rigorous computational methods were assessed using eight antibody-antigen and eight non-antibody-antigen complexes for their ability to accurately predict relative binding affinities (ΔΔG) for 654 single mutations. In addition to assessing accuracy, we analyzed the CPU cost and performance for each method using a variety of physico-chemical structural features. This allowed us to posit scenarios in which each method may be best utilized. Most methods performed worse when applied to antibody-antigen complexes compared to non-antibody-antigen complexes. Rosetta-based JayZ and EasyE methods classified mutations as destabilizing (ΔΔG < -0.5 kcal/mol) with high (83–98%) accuracy and a relatively low computational cost for non-antibody-antigen complexes. Some of the most accurate results for antibody-antigen systems came from combining molecular dynamics with FoldX with a correlation coefficient (r) of 0.46, but this was also the most computationally expensive method. Overall, our results suggest these methods can be used to quickly and accurately predict stabilizing versus destabilizing mutations but are less accurate at predicting actual binding affinities. This study highlights the need for continued development of reliable, accessible, and reproducible methods for predicting binding affinities in antibody-antigen proteins and provides a recipe for using current methods. 

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5. Prediction and mitigation of mutation threats to COVID-19 vaccines and antibody therapies

   https://doi.org/10.1039/d1sc01203g  

   Chen, Jiahui; Gao, Kaifu; Wang, Rui; Wei, Guo-Wei (May 2021, Chemical Science)

   null (Ed.)

   Antibody therapeutics and vaccines are among our last resort to end the raging COVID-19 pandemic. They, however, are prone to over 5000 mutations on the spike (S) protein uncovered by a Mutation Tracker based on over 200 000 genome isolates. It is imperative to understand how mutations will impact vaccines and antibodies in development. In this work, we first study the mechanism, frequency, and ratio of mutations on the S protein which is the common target of most COVID-19 vaccines and antibody therapies. Additionally, we build a library of 56 antibody structures and analyze their 2D and 3D characteristics. Moreover, we predict the mutation-induced binding free energy (BFE) changes for the complexes of S protein and antibodies or ACE2. By integrating genetics, biophysics, deep learning, and algebraic topology, we reveal that most of the 462 mutations on the receptor-binding domain (RBD) will weaken the binding of S protein and antibodies and disrupt the efficacy and reliability of antibody therapies and vaccines. A list of 31 antibody disrupting mutants is identified, while many other disruptive mutations are detailed as well. We also unveil that about 65% of the existing RBD mutations, including those variants recently found in the United Kingdom (UK) and South Africa, will strengthen the binding between the S protein and human angiotensin-converting enzyme 2 (ACE2), resulting in more infectious COVID-19 variants. We discover the disparity between the extreme values of RBD mutation-induced BFE strengthening and weakening of the bindings with antibodies and angiotensin-converting enzyme 2 (ACE2), suggesting that SARS-CoV-2 is at an advanced stage of evolution for human infection, while the human immune system is able to produce optimized antibodies. This discovery, unfortunately, implies the vulnerability of current vaccines and antibody drugs to new mutations. Our predictions were validated by comparison with more than 1400 deep mutations on the S protein RBD. Our results show the urgent need to develop new mutation-resistant vaccines and antibodies and to prepare for seasonal vaccinations. 

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