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Abstract The dayside equatorial ionospheric electrodynamics exhibit strong variability driven simultaneously by highly changeable external forcings that originate from the solar extreme ultraviolet (EUV), magnetosphere, and lower atmosphere. We investigate this variability by carrying out comprehensive data‐driven ensemble modeling using a coupled model of the thermosphere and ionosphere, with the focus on the verticalE×Bdrift variability during a solar minimum and minor storm period. The variability of verticalE×Bdrift in response to the changes and uncertainty of primary forcings (i.e., solar EUV, high‐latitude plasma convection and auroral particle precipitation, and lower‐atmospheric tide and wave forcing) is investigated by ensemble forcing sensitivity experiments that incorporate data‐driven stochastic perturbations of these forcings into the model. Second, the impact of assimilating FORMOsa SATellite‐3/Constellation Observing System for Meteorology, Ionosphere, and Climate (FORMOSAT‐3/COSMIC) electron density profiles (EDPs) on the reduction of uncertainty of the modeled verticalE×Bdrift variability resulting from inadequately specified external forcing is revealed. The Communication and Navigation Outage Forecasting System (C/NOFS) ion drift velocity observations are used for validation. The validation results support the importance of the use of a data‐driven forcing perturbation methods in ensemble modeling and data assimilation. In conclusion, the solar EUV dominates the global‐scale day‐to‐day variability, while the lower atmosphere tide and wave forcing is critical to determining the regional variability. The modeled verticalE×Bdrift is also sensitive to the magnetospheric forcing. The ensemble data assimilation of FORMOSAT‐3/COSMIC EDPs helps to reduce the uncertainty and improves agreement of the modeled verticalE×Bdrifts with C/NOFS observations.
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Modeling Solar Eclipses at Extreme Ultra Violet Wavelengths and the Effects of Nonuniform Eclipse Shadow on the Ionosphere‐Thermosphere System
Abstract The impacts of solar eclipses on the ionosphere‐thermosphere system particularly the composition, density, and transport are studied using numerical simulation and subsequent model‐data comparison. We introduce a newly developed model of a solar eclipse mask (shadow) at extreme ultraviolet (EUV) wavelengths—PyEclipse—that computes the corresponding shadowing as a function of space, time, and wavelength of the input solar image. The current model includes interfaces for Solar Dynamics Observatory and Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellites EUV telescopes providing solar images at nine different wavelengths. We show the significance of the EUV eclipse shadow spatial variability and that it varies significantly with wavelength owing to the highly variable solar coronal emissions. We demonstrate geometrical differences between the EUV eclipse shadow compared to a geometrically symmetric simplification revealing changes in occultation vary ±20%. The EUV eclipse mask is validated with in situ solar flux measurements by the PRoject for Onboard Autonomy 2/Large Yield Radiometer instrument suite showing the model captures the morphology and amplitudes of transient variability while the modeled gradients are slower. The effects of spatially EUV eclipse masks are investigated with Global Ionosphere Thermosphere Model for the 21 August 2017 eclipse. The results reveal that the modeled EUV eclipse mask, in comparison with the geometrically symmetric approximation, causes changes in the Total Electron Content in order of ±20%, 5%–20% in F‐region plasma drift, and 20%–30% in F‐region neutral winds.
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- Award ID(s):
- 1929879
- PAR ID:
- 10383274
- Publisher / Repository:
- DOI PREFIX: 10.1029
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- Journal of Geophysical Research: Space Physics
- Volume:
- 127
- Issue:
- 12
- ISSN:
- 2169-9380
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
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