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1. River flow decline across the entire Arkansas River Basin in the 21st century

   https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2023.129253  

   Yang, Jia; Zou, Chris; Will, Rodney; Wagner, Kevin; Ouyang, Ying; King, Chad; Winrich, Abigail; Tian, Hanqin (March 2023, Journal of Hydrology)

   The Arkansas River and its tributaries provide critical water resources for agricultural irrigation, hydropower generation, and public water supply in the Arkansas River Basin (ARB). However, climate change and other environmental factors have imposed significant impacts on regional hydrological processes, resulting in widespread ecological and economic consequences. In this study, we projected future river flow patterns in the 21st century across the entire ARB under two climate and socio-economic change scenarios (i.e., SSP2-RCP45 and SSP5-RCP85) using the process-based Dynamic Land Ecosystem Model (DLEM). We designed “baseline simulations” (all driving factors were kept constant at the level circa 2000) and “environmental change simulations” (at least one driving factor changed over time during 2001–2099) to simulate the inter-annual variations of river flow and quantify the contributions of four driving factors (i.e., climate change, CO2 concentration, atmospheric nitrogen deposition, and land use change). Results showed that the Arkansas River flow in 2080–2099 would decrease by 12.1% in the SSP2-RCP45 and 27.9% in the SSP5-RCP85 compared to that during 2000–2019. River flow decline would occur from the beginning to the middle of this century in the SSP2-RCP45 and happen throughout the entire century in the SSP5-RCP85. All major rivers in the ARB would experience river flow decline with the largest percentage reduction in the western and southwestern ARB. Warming and drying climates would account for 77%–95% of the reduction. The rising CO2 concentration would exacerbate the decline through increasing foliage area and ecosystem evapotranspiration. This study provides insight into the spatial patterns of future changes in water availability in the ARB and the underlying mechanisms controlling these changes. This information is critical for designing watershed-specific management strategies to maintain regional water resource sustainability and mitigate the adverse impacts of climate changes on water availability. 

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2. Velocity-amplified microbial respiration rates in the lower Amazon River: Amazon River respiration

   https://doi.org/10.1002/lol2.10062  

   Ward, Nicholas D.; Sawakuchi, Henrique O.; Neu, Vania; Less, Diani F. S.; Valerio, Aline M.; Cunha, Alan C.; Kampel, Milton; Bianchi, Thomas S.; Krusche, Alex V.; Richey, Jeffrey E.; et al (February 2018, Limnology and Oceanography Letters)
3. Resilience of River Deltas in the Anthropocene

   https://doi.org/10.1029/2019JF005201  

   Hoitink, A. J. F.; Nittrouer, J. A.; Passalacqua, P.; Shaw, J. B.; Langendoen, E. J.; Huismans, Y.; van Maren, D. S. (March 2020, Journal of Geophysical Research: Earth Surface)

   At a global scale, delta morphologies are subject to rapid change as a result of direct and indirect effects of human activity. This jeopardizes the ecosystem services of deltas, including protection against flood hazards, facilitation of navigation, and biodiversity. Direct manifestations of delta morphological instability include river bank failure, which may lead to avulsion, persistent channel incision or aggregation, and a change of the sedimentary regime to hyperturbid conditions. Notwithstanding the in‐depth knowledge developed over the past decades about those topics, existing understanding is fragmented, and the predictive capacity of morphodynamic models is limited. The advancement of potential resilience analysis tools may proceed from improved models, continuous observations, and the application of novel analysis techniques. Progress will benefit from synergy between approaches. Empirical and numerical models are built using field observations, and, in turn, model simulations can inform observationists about where to measure. Information theory offers a systematic approach to test the realism of alternative model concepts. Once the key mechanism responsible for a morphodynamic instability phenomenon is understood, concepts from dynamic system theory can be employed to develop early warning indicators. In the development of reliable tools to design resilient deltas, one of the first challenges is to close the sediment balance at multiple scales, such that morphodynamic model predictions match with fully independent measurements. Such a high ambition level is rarely adopted and is urgently needed to address the ongoing global changes causing sea level rise and reduced sediment input by reservoir building. 

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4. High Resolution Modeling of River‐Floodplain‐Reservoir Inundation Dynamics in the Mekong River Basin

   https://doi.org/10.1029/2019WR026449  

   Shin, Sanghoon; Pokhrel, Yadu; Yamazaki, Dai; Huang, Xiaodong; Torbick, Nathan; Qi, Jiaguo; Pattanakiat, Sura; Ngo‐Duc, Thanh; Nguyen, Tuan Duc (April 2020, Water Resources Research)

   Abstract Numerous studies have examined the changes in streamflow in the Mekong River Basin (MRB) using observations and hydrological modeling; however, there is a lack of integrated modeling studies that explicitly simulate the natural and human‐induced changes in flood dynamics over the entire basin. Here we simulate the river‐floodplain‐reservoir inundation dynamics over the MRB for 1979–2016 period using a newly integrated, high‐resolution (~5 km) river hydrodynamics‐reservoir operation model. The framework is based on the river‐floodplain hydrodynamic model CaMa‐Flood in which a new reservoir operation scheme is incorporated by including 86 existing MRB dams. The simulated flood extent is downscaled to a higher resolution (~90 m) to investigate fine‐scale inundation dynamics, and results are validated with ground‐ and satellite‐based observations. It is found that the historical variations in surface water storage have been governed primarily by climate variability; the impacts of dams on river‐floodplain hydrodynamics were marginal until 2009. However, results indicate that the dam impacts increased noticeably in 2010 when the basin‐wide storage capacity doubled due to the construction of new mega dams. Further, results suggest that the future flood dynamics in the MRB would be considerably different than in the past even without climate change and additional dams. However, it is also found that the impacts of dams can largely vary depending on reservoir operation strategies. This study is expected to provide the basis for high‐resolution river‐floodplain‐reservoir modeling for a holistic assessment of the impacts of dams and climate change on the floodpulse‐dependent hydro‐ecological systems in the MRB and other global regions. 

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5. Mercury stocks in discontinuous permafrost and their mobilization by river migration in the Yukon River Basin

   https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ad536e  

   Smith, M_Isabel; Ke, Yutian; Geyman, Emily_C; Reahl, Jocelyn_N; Douglas, Madison_M; Seelen, Emily_A; Magyar, John_S; Dunne, Kieran_B_J; Mutter, Edda_A; Fischer, Woodward_W; et al (August 2024, Environmental Research Letters)

   Abstract Rapid warming in the Arctic threatens to destabilize mercury (Hg) deposits contained within soils in permafrost regions. Yet current estimates of the amount of Hg in permafrost vary by ∼4 times. Moreover, how Hg will be released to the environment as permafrost thaws remains poorly known, despite threats to water quality, human health, and the environment. Here we present new measurements of total mercury (THg) contents in discontinuous permafrost in the Yukon River Basin in Alaska. We collected riverbank and floodplain sediments from exposed banks and bars near the villages of Huslia and Beaver. Median THg contents were 49⁺¹³/₋₂₁ng THg g sediment⁻¹and 39⁺¹⁶/₋₁₈ng THg g sediment⁻¹for Huslia and Beaver, respectively (uncertainties as 15th and 85th percentiles). Corresponding THg:organic carbon ratios were 5.4^+2.0/_−2.4Gg THg Pg C⁻¹and 4.2^+2.4/_−2.9Gg THg Pg C⁻¹. To constrain floodplain THg stocks, we combined measured THg contents with floodplain stratigraphy. Trends of THg increasing with smaller sediment size and calculated stocks in the upper 1 m and 3 m are similar to those suggested for this region by prior pan-Arctic studies. We combined THg stocks and river migration rates derived from remote sensing to estimate particulate THg erosional and depositional fluxes as river channels migrate across the floodplain. Results show similar fluxes within uncertainty into the river from erosion at both sites (95⁺¹²/₋₄₇kg THg yr⁻¹and 26⁺¹⁵⁴/₋₁₃kg THg yr⁻¹at Huslia and Beaver, respectively), but different fluxes out of the river via deposition in aggrading bars (60⁺⁴⁰/₋₂₉kg THg yr⁻¹and 10^+5.3/_−1.7kg THg yr⁻¹). Thus, a significant amount of THg is liberated from permafrost during bank erosion, while a variable but generally lesser portion is subsequently redeposited by migrating rivers. 

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