skip to main content


Title: Ecology and Climate of the Earth—The Same Biogeophysical System
Ecology and the climate provide two perspectives of the same biogeophysical system at all spatiotemporal scales More effectively embracing this congruence is an opportunity to improve scientific understanding and predictions as well as for a more effective policy that integrates both the bottom-up community, business-driven framework, and the popular, top-down impact assessment framework. The objective of this paper is, therefore, to more closely integrate the diverse spectrum of scientists, engineers and policymakers into finding optimal solutions to reduce the risk to environmental and social threats by considering the ecology and climate as an integrated system. Assessments such as performed towards the 2030 Plan for Sustainable Development, with its 17 Sustainable Development Goals and its Goal 13 in particular, can achieve more progress by accounting for the intimate connection of all aspects of the Earth’s biogeophysical system.  more » « less
Award ID(s):
1720424
NSF-PAR ID:
10383960
Author(s) / Creator(s):
; ;
Date Published:
Journal Name:
Climate
Volume:
10
Issue:
2
ISSN:
2225-1154
Page Range / eLocation ID:
25
Format(s):
Medium: X
Sponsoring Org:
National Science Foundation
More Like this
  1. null (Ed.)
    Climate data from Earth System Models are increasingly being used to study the impacts of climate change on a broad range of biogeophysical (forest fires, fisheries, etc.) and human systems (reservoir operations, urban heat waves, etc.). Before this data can be used to study many of these systems, post-processing steps commonly referred to as bias correction and statistical downscaling must be performed. “Bias correction” is used to correct persistent biases in climate model output and “statistical downscaling” is used to increase the spatiotemporal resolution of the model output (i.e. 1 deg to 1/16th deg grid boxes). For our purposes, we’ll refer to both parts as “downscaling”. In the past few decades, the applications community has developed a plethora of downscaling methods. Many of these methods are ad-hoc collections of post processing routines while others target very specific applications. The proliferation of downscaling methods has left the climate applications community with an overwhelming body of research to sort through without much in the form of synthesis guiding method selection or applicability. Motivated by the pressing socio-environmental challenges of climate change – and with the learnings from previous downscaling efforts in mind – we have begun working on a community-centered open framework for climate downscaling: scikit-downscale. We believe that the community will benefit from the presence of a well-designed open source downscaling toolbox with standard interfaces alongside a repository of benchmark data to test and evaluate new and existing downscaling methods. In this notebook, we provide an overview of the scikit-downscale project, detailing how it can be used to downscale a range of surface climate variables such as air temperature and precipitation. We also highlight how scikit-downscale framework is being used to compare existing methods and how it can be extended to support the development of new downscaling methods. 
    more » « less
  2. Abstract

    Several environmental policies strive to restore impaired ecosystems and could benefit from a consistent and transparent process—codeveloped with key stakeholders—to prioritize impaired ecosystems for restoration activities. The Clean Water Act, for example, establishes reallocation mechanisms to transfer ecosystem services from sites of disturbance to compensation sites to offset aquatic resource functions that are unavoidably lost through land development. However, planning for the prioritization of compensatory mitigation areas is often hampered by decision‐making processes that fall into a myopic decision frame because they are not coproduced with stakeholders. In this study, we partnered with domain experts from the North Carolina Division of Mitigation Services to codevelop a real‐world decision framework to prioritize catchments by potential for the development of mitigation projects following principles of a structured decision‐making process and knowledge coproduction. Following an iterative decision analysis cycle, domain experts revised foundational components of the decision framework and progressively added complexity and realism as they gained additional insights or more information became available. Through the course of facilitated in‐person and remote interactions, the codevelopment of a decision framework produced three main “breakthroughs” from the perspective of the stakeholder group: (a) recognition of the problem as a multiobjective decision driven by several values in addition to biogeophysical goals (e.g., functional uplift, restoring or enhancing lost functionality of ecosystems); (b) that the decision comprises a linked and sequential planning‐to‐implementation process; and (c) future risk associated with land‐use and climate change must be considered. We also present an interactive tool for “on‐the‐fly” assessment of alternatives and tradeoff analysis, allowing domain experts to quickly test, react to, and revise prioritization strategies. The decision framework described in this study is not limited to the prioritization of compensatory mitigation activities across North Carolina but rather serves as a framework to prioritize a wide range of restoration, conservation, and resource allocation activities in similar environmental contexts across the nation.

     
    more » « less
  3. A growing body of scientific evidence indicates that we have entered the Anthropocene Epoch. Many assert that society has exceeded sustainable ecological planetary boundaries and that altered biogeophysical processes are no longer reversible to natural rates of ecosystem functioning. To properly and successfully address societal needs for the future, more holistic and complex methods need to be applied at various spatial and temporal scales. The increasingly interconnected nature of human and natural environments—from individuals to large megacities and entire continents and from cells through ecosystems to the biosphere as a whole (e.g., as seen in the carbon cycle)—demand new and often interdisciplinary and international approaches to address emerging global challenges. With that perspective in mind, the Czech Republic’s National Climate Program was established in 1991 with the aim to understand the impact of global environmental change on society. The National Climate Program was updated in 2017 to formulate a new Climate Protection Policy. Here, we outline the multifaceted problems that climate change poses for the Czech Republic, as well as a new scientific infrastructure and approaches directed to better understanding the effects of climate change on our ecosystems, water resources, urban environment, agriculture, human health, and general economy. 
    more » « less
  4. Abstract. Agricultural nitrous oxide (N2O) emission accounts for a non-trivialfraction of global greenhouse gas (GHG) budget. To date, estimatingN2O fluxes from cropland remains a challenging task because the relatedmicrobial processes (e.g., nitrification and denitrification) are controlledby complex interactions among climate, soil, plant and human activities.Existing approaches such as process-based (PB) models have well-knownlimitations due to insufficient representations of the processes oruncertainties of model parameters, and due to leverage recent advances inmachine learning (ML) a new method is needed to unlock the “black box” toovercome its limitations such as low interpretability, out-of-sample failureand massive data demand. In this study, we developed a first-of-its-kindknowledge-guided machine learning model for agroecosystems (KGML-ag) byincorporating biogeophysical and chemical domain knowledge from an advanced PBmodel, ecosys, and tested it by comparing simulating daily N2O fluxes withreal observed data from mesocosm experiments. The gated recurrent unit (GRU)was used as the basis to build the model structure. To optimize the modelperformance, we have investigated a range of ideas, including (1) usinginitial values of intermediate variables (IMVs) instead of time series asmodel input to reduce data demand; (2) building hierarchical structures toexplicitly estimate IMVs for further N2O prediction; (3) using multi-tasklearning to balance the simultaneous training on multiple variables; and (4)pre-training with millions of synthetic data generated from ecosys and fine-tuningwith mesocosm observations. Six other pure ML models were developed usingthe same mesocosm data to serve as the benchmark for the KGML-ag model.Results show that KGML-ag did an excellent job in reproducing the mesocosmN2O fluxes (overall r2=0.81, and RMSE=3.6 mgNm-2d-1from cross validation). Importantly, KGML-ag always outperformsthe PB model and ML models in predicting N2O fluxes, especially forcomplex temporal dynamics and emission peaks. Besides, KGML-ag goes beyondthe pure ML models by providing more interpretable predictions as well aspinpointing desired new knowledge and data to further empower the currentKGML-ag. We believe the KGML-ag development in this study will stimulate anew body of research on interpretable ML for biogeochemistry and otherrelated geoscience processes. 
    more » « less
  5. null (Ed.)
    The authors present a new approach to show how interdisciplinary collaborations among a group of institutions can provide a unique opportunity for students to engage across the science-policy nexus using the framework of the Sustainable Development Goals and the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. Through collaboration across seven higher education institutions in the United States and Australia, virtual student research teams worked together across disciplines such as economics, ecology, and other earth and social sciences to address research questions centered on sustainable development goals. The teams presented their findings in person to diplomats and delegates at the 2019 United Nations Conference of the Parties meeting in Madrid, which also had strong qualitative impacts on their perceptions of international science-policy interfaces. 
    more » « less