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1. The 2018 Camp Fire: Meteorological Analysis Using In Situ Observations and Numerical Simulations

   https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos11010047  

   Brewer, Matthew J. ; Clements, Craig B. ( January 2020 , Atmosphere)

   The November 2018 Camp Fire quickly became the deadliest and most destructive wildfire in California history. In this case study, we investigate the contribution of meteorological conditions and, in particular, a downslope windstorm that occurred during the 2018 Camp Fire. Dry seasonal conditions prior to ignition led to 100-h fuel moisture contents in the region to reach record low levels. Meteorological observations were primarily made from a number of remote automatic weather stations and a mobile scanning Doppler lidar deployed to the fire on 8 November 2018. Additionally, gridded operational forecast models and high-resolution meteorological simulations were synthesized in the analysis to provide context for the meteorological observations and structure of the downslope windstorm. Results show that this event was associated with mid-level anti-cyclonic Rossby wave breaking likely caused by cold air advection aloft. An inverted surface trough over central California created a pressure gradient which likely enhanced the downslope winds. Sustained surface winds between 3–6 m s−1 were observed with gusts of over 25 m s−1 while winds above the surface were associated with an intermittent low-level jet. The meteorological conditions of the event were well forecasted, and the severity of the fire was not surprising given the firemore »danger potential for that day. However, use of surface networks alone do not provide adequate observations for understanding downslope windstorm events and their impact on fire spread. Fire management operations may benefit from the use of operational wind profilers to better understand the evolution of downslope windstorms and other fire weather phenomena that are poorly understood and observed.« less
2. Can Mountain Waves Contribute to Damaging Winds Far Away from the Lee Slope?

   https://doi.org/10.1175/WAF-D-18-0207.1  

   Kelley, Jeffrey D. ; Schultz, David M. ; Schumacher, Russ S. ; Durran, Dale R. ( December 2019 , Weather and Forecasting)

   On 25 December 2016, a 984-hPa cyclone departed Colorado and moved onto the northern plains, drawing a nearby Arctic front into the circulation and wrapping it cyclonically around the equatorward side of the cyclone. A 130-km-wide and 850-km-long swath of surface winds exceeding 25 m s−1 originated underneath the comma head of the lee cyclone and followed the track of the Arctic front from Colorado to Minnesota. These strong winds formed in association with a downslope windstorm and mountain wave over Colorado and Wyoming, producing an elevated jet of strong winds. Central to the distribution of winds in this case is the Arctic air mass, which both shielded the elevated winds from surface friction behind the front and facilitated the mixing of the elevated jet down to the surface just behind the Arctic front, due to steep lapse rates associated with cold-air advection. The intense circulation south of the cyclone center transported the Arctic front and the elevated jet away from the mountains and out across Great Plains. This case is compared to an otherwise similar cyclone that occurred on 28–29 February 2012 in which a downslope windstorm occurred, but no surface mesoscale wind maximum formed due to themore »absence of a well-defined Arctic front and postfrontal stable layer. Despite the superficial similarities of this surface wind maximum to a sting jet (e.g., origin in the midtroposphere within the comma head of the cyclone, descent evaporating the comma head, acceleration to the top of the boundary layer, and an existence separate from the cold conveyor belt), this swath of winds was not caused by a sting jet.

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3. The Sundowner Winds Experiment (SWEX) Pilot Study: Understanding Downslope Windstorms in the Santa Ynez Mountains, Santa Barbara, California

   https://doi.org/10.1175/MWR-D-19-0207.1  

   Carvalho, Leila ; Duine, Gert-Jan ; Jones, Charles ; Zigner, Katelyn ; Clements, Craig ; Kane, Heather ; Gore, Chloe ; Bell, Garret ; Gamelin, Brandi ; Gomberg, Dave ; et al ( April 2020 , Monthly Weather Review)

   Sundowner winds are downslope gusty winds often observed on the southern slopes of the Santa Ynez Mountains (SYM) in coastal Santa Barbara (SB), California. They typically peak near sunset and exhibit characteristics of downslope windstorms through the evening. They are SB’s most critical fire weather in all seasons and represent a major hazard for aviation. The Sundowner Winds Experiment Pilot Study was designed to evaluate vertical profiles of winds, temperature, humidity, and stability leeward of the SYM during a Sundowner event. This was accomplished by launching 3-hourly radiosondes during a significant Sundowner event on 28–29 April 2018. This study showed that winds in the lee of the SYM exhibit complex spatial and temporal patterns. Vertical profiles showed a transition from humid onshore winds from morning to midafternoon to very pronounced offshore winds during the evening after sunset. These winds accompanied mountain waves and a northerly nocturnal lee jet with variable temporal behavior. Around sunset, the jet was characterized by strong wind speeds enhanced by mountain-wave breaking. Winds weakened considerably at 2300 PDT 29 April but enhanced dramatically at 0200 PDT 29 April at much lower elevations. These transitions were accompanied by changes in stability profiles and in the Richardson number.more »A simulation with the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model at 1-km grid spacing was examined to evaluate the skill of the model in capturing the observed winds and stability profiles and to assess mesoscale processes associated with this event. These results advanced understanding on Sundowner’s spatiotemporal characteristics and driving mechanisms.

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4. Simulating Sundowner Winds in Coastal Santa Barbara: Model Validation and Sensitivity

   https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos10030155  

   Duine, Gert-Jan ; Jones, Charles ; Carvalho, Leila ; Fovell, Robert ( March 2019 , Atmosphere)

   This study investigates the influence of planetary boundary layer (PBL) schemes and land surface models (LSMs) on the performance of the Weather Research & Forecasting model in simulating the development of downslope windstorms in the lee of the Santa Ynez Mountains in Santa Barbara, California (known as Sundowner winds). Using surface stations, a vertical wind profiler, and a multi-physics ensemble approach, we found that most of the wind speed biases are controlled by the roughness length z 0 , and so by the choice of LSM. While timing characteristics of Sundowners are insensitive to both LSM and PBL schemes, a clear sensitivity in the horizontal extent of strong surface winds is found for both PBL parameterization and z 0 , which are related to patterns of self-induced wave-breaking near the mountaintop, and the erosion of the marine layer. These results suggest that LSMs with relatively high values of z 0 , and TKE-based or hybrid PBL schemes adequately simulate downslope windstorms in the lee of mountain ranges, specifically in areas where downslope windstorms interact with the marine boundary layer with stably stratified characteristics.
5. Extreme winds and fire weather in coastal Santa Barbara County, CA : An observational analysis

   https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.7262  

   Zigner, Katelyn ; Carvalho, Leila M. ; Jones, Charles ; Duine, Gert‐Jan ( June 2021 , International Journal of Climatology)

   null (Ed.)

   Coastal Santa Barbara (SB) County in Southern California, characterized by a Mediterranean climate and complex topography, is a region prone to downslope windstorms that create critical fire weather conditions and rapidly spread wildfires. The Santa Ynez Mountains, oriented from east to west, rise abruptly from the coast, separating air masses from the ocean and the Santa Ynez Valley. The juxtaposition of these geographic features generates spatiotemporally variable wind regimes. This study analyzes diurnal-to-seasonal wind cycles and extremes in this region using hourly data from eight weather stations and four buoys for the period 1998–2019. Data from a vertical wind profiler at the Santa Barbara airport in Goleta, CA was extracted from August 2016 to September 2020. Air temperature, dew point temperature, and the Fosberg fire weather index are examined at land stations. We show that cycles in wind speed vary spatiotemporally; mountain (valley and coastal) stations exhibit a pronounced semiannual (annual) cycle, and wind maxima is observed during the evening (afternoon) at mountain (valley and coastal) stations. Differences in wind speed percentiles were evident among stations, particularly at and above the 75th percentile. Strong winds recorded at buoys were significantly correlated (between r = 0.3–0.5) to land stations. However, cross-correlationalmore »analysis did not reveal any temporal lags between mountain stations and buoys. Distributions of temperature and dew point during extreme winds differed between east and west mountain stations. Significant fire weather conditions were most frequent at mountain stations in Refugio and Montecito, with 5% occurrence in the spring and over 3% occurrence in fall. Weaker summertime winds lowered fire weather conditions at Montecito in the summer« less