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1. Temperature and nutrient conditions modify the effects of phenological shifts in predator–prey communities

   https://doi.org/10.1002/ecy.3704  

   Rudolf, V. H. W. ( May 2022 , Ecology)

   Although there is mounting evidence indicating that the relative timing of predator and prey phenologies determines the outcome of trophic interactions, we still lack a comprehensive understanding of how the environmental context (e.g., abiotic conditions) influences this relationship. Environmental conditions not only frequently drive shifts in phenologies, but they can also affect the very same processes that mediate the effects of phenological shifts on species interactions. Therefore, identifying how environmental conditions shape the effects of phenological shifts is key to predicting community dynamics across a heterogeneous landscape and how they will change with ongoing climate change in the future. Here I tested how environmental conditions shape the effects of phenological shifts by experimentally manipulating temperature, nutrient availability, and relative phenologies in two predator–prey freshwater systems (mole salamander–bronze frog vs. dragonfly larvae–leopard frog). This allowed me to (1) isolate the effects of phenological shifts and different environmental conditions; (2) determine how they interact; and (3) evaluate how consistent these patterns are across different species and environments. I found that delaying prey arrival dramatically increased predation rates, but these effects were contingent on environmental conditions and the predator system. Although nutrient addition and warming both significantly enhanced the effect of arrival time, their effect was qualitatively different across systems: Nutrient addition enhanced the positive effect of early arrival in the dragonfly–leopard frog system, whereas warming enhanced the negative effect of arriving late in the salamander–bronze frog system. Predator responses varied qualitatively across predator–prey systems. Only in the system with a strong gape limitation were predators (salamanders) significantly affected by prey arrival time and this effect varied with environmental context. Correlations between predator and prey demographic rates suggest that this was driven by shifts in initial predator–prey size ratios and a positive feedback between size‐specific predation rates and predator growth rates. These results highlight the importance of accounting for temporal and spatial correlations of local environmental conditions and gape limitation when predicting the effects of phenological shifts and climate change on predator–prey systems.

    

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2. Reexamining the storage effect: Why temporal variation in abiotic factors seems unlikely to cause coexistence

   https://doi.org/10.1002/ecm.1585  

   Stump, Simon Maccracken ; Vasseur, David A. ( July 2023 , Ecological Monographs)

   The temporal storage effect—that species coexist by partitioning abiotic niches that vary in time—is thought to be an important explanation for how species coexist. However, empirical studies that measure multiple mechanisms often find the storage effect is weak. We believe this mismatch is because of a shortcoming of theoretical models used to study the storage effect: that while the storage effect is described as having just three requirements (partitioning of temporal variation, buffered population growth, and a covariance between environment and density‐dependence), models used to study the storage effect make four assumptions, which are mathematically subtle but biologically important. In this paper, we examine those assumptions. First, models assume that environmental variation leads to a rapid impact on density‐dependence. We find that delays in density‐dependence (including delays caused by competition between cohorts) weaken the storage effect. Second, models assume that intraspecific competition is almost identical to interspecific competition. We find that unless resource or predator partitioning are virtually absent, then variation‐independent mechanisms will overshadow the benefits of the storage effect. Third, models assume even though there is vast variation in the environment, species are equally adapted on average (i.e., zero fitness‐differences). We show that fitness differences are particularly problematic in the storage effect because specializing on temporally rare niches is far less effective than specializing on other types of rare niches. Finally, models assume that stochastic extinctions can be ignored, and invader growth can determine coexistence. We show that storage effects tend to reduce mean persistence times, even if invader growth rates are positive. These results suggest that the assumptions needed for the storage effect are strict: if the first or second assumption is relaxed, it will greatly weaken the stabilizing mechanism; if the third or fourth assumption is relaxed, it will create a diversity‐destroying effect that may undermine coexistence. We examine three real‐world communities—annual plants, tropical forests, and iguanid lizards—and find that empirical studies suggest that all three communities violate multiple assumptions. This suggests that the temporal storage effect is probably not an important explanation for species diversity in most systems.

    

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3. Quantifying the effects of intraspecific variation on predator feeding rates through nonlinear averaging

   https://doi.org/10.1111/1365-2435.13802  

   Coblentz, Kyle E. ; Merhoff, Stephanie ; Novak, Mark ( June 2021 , Functional Ecology)

   Theory suggests that intraspecific trait variation will alter species interaction strengths through nonlinear averaging when interaction strengths are nonlinear functions of individuals' traits. This effect is expected to be widespread, yet what factors mediate its magnitude in nature and hence its potential effects on ecosystems and communities are unclear.

   We sought to quantify how nonlinear predator functional responses, variation in prey densities and counteracting variation in attack rates and handling times among predator individuals of similar body size alter their population‐level feeding rates through nonlinear averaging in a natural system, and to determine the processes influencing the net magnitude of this effect.

   We used a field caging experiment in the rocky intertidal of Oregon, USA to quantify attack‐rate variation and feeding rates of the whelkNucella ostrinaon its barnacle and mussel prey. We also used empirically parameterized simulations to examine the effects of handling‐time variation among individuals on population‐level feeding rates.

   Within cages, individual attack‐rate variation reduced population‐level whelk feeding rates. However, the magnitude of this reduction differed among prey species and cages depending on cage‐specific magnitudes of attack‐rate variation and functional‐response nonlinearity. The inferred effects of handling‐time variation among individuals were of smaller magnitude than those of attack‐rate variation, yet counteracted them to cause a net weakening of the effect of individual attack‐rate variation on population‐level feeding rates. Across cages, attack‐rate and prey‐density variation had non‐additive effects that produced greater feeding‐rate reductions at the experiment scale relative to the cage scale.

   Our results indicate that the effects of trait variation via nonlinear averaging depend critically on the features of systems that determine the magnitudes of nonlinearities and trait variation. Because of counteracting trait variation, nonlinear‐averaging effects may be quite complex, involving both the variances and covariances of all traits and environmental variables influencing the ecological process of interest.

   A freePlain Language Summarycan be found within the Supporting Information of this article.

    

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4. Evolution of population dynamics following invasion by a non‐native predator

   https://doi.org/10.1002/ece3.9348  

   Einum, Sigurd ; Ullern, Emil R. ; Walsh, Matthew ; Burton, Tim ( September 2022 , Ecology and Evolution)

   Invasive predatory species are frequently observed to cause evolutionary responses in prey phenotypes, which in turn may lead to evolutionary shifts in the population dynamics of prey. Research has provided a link between rates of predation and the evolution of prey population growth in the lab, but studies from natural populations are rare. Here, we tested for evolutionary changes in population dynamics parameters of zooplanktonDaphnia pulicariafollowing invasion by the predatorBythotrephes longimanusinto Lake Kegonsa, Wisconsin, US. We used a resurrection ecological approach, whereby clones from pre‐ and post‐invasive periods were hatched from eggs obtained in sediment cores and were used in a 3‐month growth experiment. Based on these data, we estimated intrinsic population growth rates (r), the shape of density dependence (θ) and carrying capacities (K) using theta‐logistic models. We found that post‐invasionDaphniamaintained a higherrandKunder these controlled, predation‐free laboratory conditions. Evidence for changes inθwas weaker. Whereas previous experimental evolution studies of predator–prey interactions have demonstrated that genotypes that have evolved under predation have inferior competitive ability when the predator is absent, this was not the case for theDaphnia. Given that our study was conducted in a laboratory environment and the possibility for genotype‐by‐environment interactions, extrapolating these apparent counterintuitive results to the wild should be done with caution. However, barring such complications, we discuss how selection for reduced predator exposure, either temporally or spatially, may have led to the observed changes. This scenario suggests that complexities in ecological interactions represents a challenge when predicting the evolutionary responses of population dynamics to changes in predation pressure in natural systems.

    

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5. Environmental forcing and predator consumption outweigh the nonconsumptive effects of multiple predators on oyster reefs

   https://doi.org/10.1002/ecy.3041  

   Kimbro, David L. ; Tillotson, Hanna G. ; White, J. Wilson ( April 2020 , Ecology)

   The ability to predict how predators structure ecosystems has been shown to depend on identifying both consumptive effects (CEs) and nonconsumptive effects (NCEs) of predators on prey fitness. Prey populations may also be affected by interactions between multiple predators across life stages of the prey and by environmental factors such as disturbance. However, the intersection of these multiple drivers of prey dynamics has yet to be empirically evaluated. We addressed this knowledge gap using eastern oysters (Crassostrea virginica), a species known to suffer NCEs, as the focal prey. Over 4 months, we manipulated orthogonally the life stage (none, juvenile, adult, or both) at which oysters experienced simulated predation (CE) and exposure to olfactory cues of a juvenile oyster predator (crab), adult predator (conch), sequentially the crab and then the conch, or none. We replicated this experiment at three sites along an environmental gradient in a Florida (USA) estuary. For both juvenile and adult oysters, survival was reduced solely by CEs, and variation in growth was best explained by among‐site variation in water flow, with a much smaller and negative effect of predator cue. Adults exposed to conch cue exhibited reduced growth (an NCE), but this effect was outweighed by a positive CE on growth: Surviving oysters grew faster at lower densities. Finally, conch cue reduced larval settlement (another NCE), but this was swamped by among‐site variation in larval supply. This research highlights how strong environmental gradients and predator CEs may outweigh the influence of NCEs, even in prey known to respond to predator cues. These findings serve as a cautionary tale for the importance of evaluating NCE processes over temporal scales and across environmental gradients relevant to prey demography.

    

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