Abstract Aggregated community-scale data could be harnessed to provide insights into the disparate impacts of managed power outages, burst pipes, and food inaccessibility during extreme weather events. During the winter storm that brought historically low temperatures, snow, and ice to the entire state of Texas in February 2021, Texas power-generating plant operators resorted to rolling blackouts to prevent collapse of the power grid when power demand overwhelmed supply. To reveal the disparate impact of managed power outages on vulnerable subpopulations in Harris County, Texas, which encompasses the city of Houston, we collected and analyzed community-scale big data using statistical and trend classification analyses. The results highlight the spatial and temporal patterns of impacts on vulnerable subpopulations in Harris County. The findings show a significant disparity in the extent and duration of power outages experienced by low-income and minority groups, suggesting the existence of inequality in the management and implementation of the power outage. Also, the extent of burst pipes and disrupted food access, as a proxy for storm impact, were more severe for low-income and minority groups. Insights provided by the results could form a basis from which infrastructure operators might enhance social equality during managed service disruptions in such events. The results and findings demonstrate the value of community-scale big data sources for rapid impact assessment in the aftermath of extreme weather events.
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Bayesian Optimization and Hierarchical Forecasting of Non-Weather-Related Electric Power Outages
Power outage prediction is important for planning electric power system response, restoration, and maintenance efforts. It is important for utility managers to understand the impact of outages on the local distribution infrastructure in order to develop appropriate maintenance and resilience measures. Power outage prediction models in literature are often limited in scope, typically tailored to model extreme weather related outage events. While these models are sufficient in predicting widespread outages from adverse weather events, they may fail to capture more frequent, non-weather related outages (NWO). In this study, we explore time series models of NWO by incorporating state-of-the-art techniques that leverage the Prophet model in Bayesian optimization and hierarchical forecasting. After defining a robust metric for NWO (non-weather outage count index, NWOCI), time series forecasting models that leverage advanced preprocessing and forecasting techniques in Kats and Prophet, respectively, were built and tested using six years of daily state- and county-level outage data in Massachusetts (MA). We develop a Prophet model with Bayesian True Parzen Estimator optimization (Prophet-TPE) using state-level outage data and a hierarchical Prophet-Bottom-Up model using county-level data. We find that these forecasting models outperform other Bayesian and hierarchical model combinations of Prophet and Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA) models in predicting NWOCI at both county and state levels. Our time series trend decomposition reveals a concerning trend in the growth of NWO in MA. We conclude with a discussion of these observations and possible recommendations for mitigating NWO.
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- Award ID(s):
- 1940176
- NSF-PAR ID:
- 10392574
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- Energies
- Volume:
- 15
- Issue:
- 6
- ISSN:
- 1996-1073
- Page Range / eLocation ID:
- 1958
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
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- Free Publicly Accessible Full Text
-
Accepted Manuscript1.0
- Journal Article:
- https://doi.org/10.3390/en15061958
