An official website of the United States government
Abstract Southern Ocean surface cooling and Antarctic sea ice expansion from 1979 through 2015 have been linked both to changing atmospheric circulation and melting of Antarctica's grounded ice and ice shelves. However, climate models have largely been unable to reproduce this behavior. Here we examine the contribution of observed wind variability and Antarctic meltwater to Southern Ocean sea surface temperature (SST) and Antarctic sea ice. The free‐running, CMIP6‐class GISS‐E2.1‐G climate model can simulate regional cooling and neutral sea ice trends due to internal variability, but they are unlikely. Constraining the model to observed winds and meltwater fluxes from 1990 through 2021 gives SST variability and trends consistent with observations. Meltwater and winds contribute a similar amount to the SST trend, and winds contribute more to the sea ice trend than meltwater. However, while the constrained model captures much of the observed sea ice variability, it only partially captures the post‐2015 sea ice reduction.
more »
« less
Antarctic Ice‐Sheet Meltwater Reduces Transient Warming and Climate Sensitivity Through the Sea‐Surface Temperature Pattern Effect
Abstract Coupled global climate models (GCMs) generally fail to reproduce the observed sea‐surface temperature (SST) trend pattern since the 1980s. The model‐observation discrepancies may arise in part from the lack of realistic Antarctic ice‐sheet meltwater input in GCMs. Here we employ two sets of CESM1‐CAM5 simulations forced by anomalous Antarctic meltwater fluxes over 1980–2013 and through the 21st century. Both show a reduced global warming rate and an SST trend pattern that better resembles observations. The meltwater drives surface cooling in the Southern Ocean and the tropical southeast Pacific, in turn increasing low‐cloud cover and driving radiative feedbacks to become more stabilizing (corresponding to a lower effective climate sensitivity). These feedback changes can contribute as substantially as ocean heat uptake efficiency changes in reducing the global warming rate. Accurately projecting historical and future warming thus requires improved representation of Antarctic meltwater and its impacts.
more »
« less
- PAR ID:
- 10393771
- Publisher / Repository:
- DOI PREFIX: 10.1029
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- Geophysical Research Letters
- Volume:
- 49
- Issue:
- 24
- ISSN:
- 0094-8276
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
More Like this
-
-
Abstract Global radiative feedbacks have been found to vary in global climate model (GCM) simulations. Atmospheric GCMs (AGCMs) driven with historical patterns of sea surface temperatures (SSTs) and sea ice concentrations produce radiative feedbacks that trend toward more negative values, implying low climate sensitivity, over recent decades. Freely evolving coupled GCMs driven by increasing CO2 produce radiative feedbacks that trend toward more positive values, implying increasing climate sensitivity, in the future. While this time variation in feedbacks has been linked to evolving SST patterns, the role of particular regions has not been quantified. Here, a Green’s function is derived from a suite of simulations within an AGCM (NCAR’s CAM4), allowing an attribution of global feedback changes to surface warming in each region. The results highlight the radiative response to surface warming in ascent regions of the western tropical Pacific as the dominant control on global radiative feedback changes. Historical warming from the 1950s to 2000s preferentially occurred in the western Pacific, yielding a strong global outgoing radiative response at the top of the atmosphere (TOA) and thus a strongly negative global feedback. Long-term warming in coupled GCMs occurs preferentially in tropical descent regions and in high latitudes, where surface warming yields small global TOA radiation change but large global surface air temperature change, and thus a less-negative global feedback. These results illuminate the importance of determining mechanisms of warm pool warming for understanding how feedbacks have varied historically and will evolve in the future.more » « less
-
Abstract The ocean response to Antarctic Ice Sheet (AIS) mass loss has been extensively studied using numerical models, but less attention has been given to the atmosphere. We examine the global atmospheric response to AIS meltwater in an ensemble of experiments performed using two fully coupled climate models under a pre‐industrial climate. In response to AIS meltwater, the experiments yield cooling from the surface to the tropopause over the subpolar Southern Ocean, warming in the Southern Hemisphere polar stratosphere, and cooling in the upper tropical troposphere. Positive feedbacks, initiated by disrupted ocean‐atmosphere heat exchange, result in a change in the top‐of‐atmosphere radiative balance caused primarily through surface and near‐surface albedo changes. Changes in the atmospheric thermal structure alter the jet streams aloft. The results highlight the global influence of AIS melting on the climate system and the potential for impacts on mid‐latitude climate patterns and delayed regional warming signals.more » « less
-
Abstract Transient climate sensitivity is strongly shaped by geographical patterns of ocean heat uptake (OHU). To isolate the effects of uncertainties associated with OHU, a single slab ocean model is forced with doubled CO2and an ensemble of OHU patterns diagnosed from transient warming scenarios in 12 fully coupled models. The single-model ensemble produces a wide range of Southern Ocean (SO) sea surface temperature (SST) and Antarctic sea ice responses, which are in turn associated with a 1.1–2.0-K range of transient climate response (TCR). Feedback analysis attributes the TCR spread primarily to shortwave effects of low clouds in the Southern Hemisphere (SH) midlatitudes. These cloud changes are strongly positively correlated with storm-track eddy kinetic energy. It is argued that midlatitude clouds (and thus planetary albedo) are remotely driven by SO SST and Antarctic sea ice, mediated by large-scale changes in SH baroclinicity and lower-tropospheric stability. The robustness of this atmospheric teleconnection between SO SST, Antarctic sea ice, and global feedback through midlatitude clouds is supported through additional simulations that explore more extreme SST and sea ice perturbations. These results highlight the importance of understanding physical relationships between SST, sea ice, circulation, and cloud changes in the SH as a pathway to better constraining transient climate sensitivity. Significance StatementAlthough it is well known that Earth’s global-mean surface temperature increases with increasing atmospheric CO2, there are still significant uncertainties in the temperature and sea ice trends over the Southern Ocean region. Using a climate model, we find that Southern Ocean temperature and Antarctic sea ice changes can result in substantial cloud cover changes over the Southern Hemisphere, which play a primary role in determining the amount of warming in our experiments. We suggest that, in order to reduce uncertainty in future climate change, more work is needed to understand how the climate of the southern polar region can affect the circulation and clouds of the midlatitudes.more » « less
-
Abstract General Circulation Model (GCM) simulations with prescribed observed sea surface temperature (SST) over the historical period show systematic global shortwave cloud radiative effect (SWCRE) variations uncorrelated with global surface temperature (known as “pattern effect”). Here, we show that a single parameter that quantifies the difference in SSTs between regions of tropical deep convection and the tropical or global average (Δconv) captures the time‐varying “pattern effect” in the simulations using the PCMDI/AMIPII SST recommended for CMIP6. In particular, a large positive trend in the 1980s–1990s in Δconvexplains the change of sign to a strongly negative SWCRE feedback since the late 1970s. In these decades, the regions of deep convection warm about +50% more than the tropical average. Such an amplification is rarely observed in forced coupled atmosphere‐ocean GCM simulations, where the amplified warming is typically about +10%. During the post 2000 global warming hiatus Δconvshows little change, and the more recent period of resumed global warming is too short to robustly detect trends. In the prescribed SST simulations, Δconvis forced by the SST difference between warmer and colder regions. An index thereof (SST#) evaluated for six SST reconstructions shows similar trends for the satellite era, but the difference between the pre‐ and the satellite era is substantially larger in the PCMDI/AMIPII SSTs than in the other reconstructions. Quantification of the cloud feedback depends critically on small changes in the shape of the SST probability density distribution. These sensitivities underscore how essential highly accurate, persistent, and stable global climate records are to determine the cloud feedback.more » « less
