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An outbreak of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), epi-centred in Hubei Province of the People’s Republic of China, quickly spread worldwide and caused COVID-19 pandemic. It infected hundreds of millions of people and caused millions of deaths. In this paper, we develop a compartmental ODE model of COVID-19 transmission. We consider a possibility of breakthrough infections after the vaccination and account for both symptomatic and asymptomatic infections and transmissions. We also incorporate game theory to study the optimal vaccination decisions from the individuals’ perspective. We show that vaccination alone is unlikely to eliminate COVID-19. To achieve herd immunity, the individuals would have to receive a dose of a vaccine more frequently than once every 3 months. It is therefore crucial to adhere to various guidelines, such as quarantine, isolate and wear a mask if tested positive for COVID-19.
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Could widespread use of antiviral treatment curb the COVID-19 pandemic? A modeling study
Abstract Background Despite the development of safe and effective vaccines, effective treatments for COVID-19 disease are still urgently needed. Several antiviral drugs have shown to be effective in reducing progression of COVID-19 disease. Methods In the present work, we use an agent-based mathematical model to assess the potential population impact of the use of antiviral treatments in four countries with different demographic structure and current levels of vaccination coverage: Kenya, Mexico, United States (US) and Belgium. We analyzed antiviral effects on reducing hospitalization and death, and potential antiviral effects on reducing transmission. For each country, we varied daily treatment initiation rate (DTIR) and antiviral effect in reducing transmission (AVT). Results Irrespective of location and AVT, widespread antiviral treatment of symptomatic adult infections (20% DTIR) prevented the majority of COVID-19 deaths, and recruiting 6% of all adult symptomatic infections daily reduced mortality by over 20% in all countries. Furthermore, our model projected that targeting antiviral treatment to the oldest age group (65 years old and older, DTIR of 20%) can prevent over 30% of deaths. Our results suggest that early antiviral treatment (as soon as possible after inception of infection) is needed to mitigate transmission, preventing 50% more infections compared to late treatment (started 3 to 5 days after symptoms onset). Our results highlight the synergistic effect of vaccination and antiviral treatment: as the vaccination rate increases, antivirals have a larger relative impact on population transmission. Finally, our model projects that even in highly vaccinated populations, adding antiviral treatment can be extremely helpful to mitigate COVID-19 deaths. Conclusions These results suggest that antiviral treatments can become a strategic tool that, in combination with vaccination, can significantly reduce COVID-19 hospitalizations and deaths and can help control SARS-CoV-2 transmission.
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- Award ID(s):
- 2210382
- PAR ID:
- 10394702
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- BMC Infectious Diseases
- Volume:
- 22
- Issue:
- 1
- ISSN:
- 1471-2334
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
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- Free Publicly Accessible Full Text
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Accepted Manuscript1.0
- Journal Article:
- https://doi.org/10.1186/s12879-022-07639-1
