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Abstract BackgroundCOVID-19 booster vaccinations mitigate transmission and reduce the morbidity and mortality associated with infection. However, the optimal date for booster administration remains uncertain. Geographic variation in infection rates throughout the year makes it challenging to intuit the best yearly booster administration date to effectively prevent infection, and also challenging to provide best guidance on how to alter booster administration in response to a breakthrough infection. MethodsWe leveraged longitudinal antibody and reinfection probabilities with spatiotemporal projections of COVID-19 incidence to develop a geographically informed approach to optimizing the timing of booster vaccination. We assessed the delay in booster vaccination that is warranted following breakthrough infections whenever they occur during the year, enabling a personalized assessment of optimal timing that acknowledges and respects diversity of COVID-19 immune status, addressing a substantial barrier to uptake. ResultsYearly booster vaccination on any date is beneficial to prevention of infection. However, each location exhibits as much as a 3–4-fold range in degree of protection by date of uptake. Optimal COVID-19 booster vaccination dates are location-specific, typically in early autumn in the Northern Hemisphere. Infection late in the interval between boosts substantially alters the optimal boosting date. ConclusionsConsiderable benefit accrues from aptly timing COVID-19 booster vaccination campaigns, which can be tailored to specific locations. Individuals can acquire the greatest benefit from booster vaccination by timing it optimally, including delaying in cases of infection late in the interval between boosts. These results provide location-specific guidance for public health policy, healthcare provider recommendations, and individual decision-making.
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GAME-THEORETICAL MODEL OF COVID-19 VACCINATION IN THE ENDEMIC EQUILIBRIUM
An outbreak of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), epi-centred in Hubei Province of the People’s Republic of China, quickly spread worldwide and caused COVID-19 pandemic. It infected hundreds of millions of people and caused millions of deaths. In this paper, we develop a compartmental ODE model of COVID-19 transmission. We consider a possibility of breakthrough infections after the vaccination and account for both symptomatic and asymptomatic infections and transmissions. We also incorporate game theory to study the optimal vaccination decisions from the individuals’ perspective. We show that vaccination alone is unlikely to eliminate COVID-19. To achieve herd immunity, the individuals would have to receive a dose of a vaccine more frequently than once every 3 months. It is therefore crucial to adhere to various guidelines, such as quarantine, isolate and wear a mask if tested positive for COVID-19.
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- Award ID(s):
- 1950015
- PAR ID:
- 10540133
- Publisher / Repository:
- World Scientific
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- Journal of Biological Systems
- Volume:
- 32
- Issue:
- 02
- ISSN:
- 0218-3390
- Page Range / eLocation ID:
- 349 to 370
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
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- Free Publicly Accessible Full Text
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Accepted Manuscript
- Journal Article:
- https://doi.org/10.1142/S021833902450013X
